Continuing on my initial fantasy rankings for the upcoming 2014 season, I’m now looking first base. This position used to be one of the deepest positions in fantasy, but when I was ranking these players I couldn’t believe the drop off after the first eight players. You’ll find more in-depth information in my fantasy guide in early March.
Previous rankings: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop Outfield part one and part two, Pitchers part one, part two, and part three.
- Paul Goldschmidt – if you read last year’s fantasy guide you would have seen how I was down on Goldschmidt based on his profile and the scouting reports as a prospect; well I was wrong and he’s the clear number one.
- Joey Votto – 2013 may have been a “down” year for Votto, only driving in 73 runners; however, do not forget he basically had the worst hitter in the lineup batting in front of him for most of the year; if the Reds new manager constructs a proper lineup I’m expecting Votto to rebound.
- Edwin Encarnacion – followed his breakout season with another great season; his approach at the plate improved and he struck out less (four percentage points).
- Freddie Freeman – for the past three years he’s had the following home run totals: 21, 23 and 23. The reason he’s higher than Chris Davis and Prince Fielder is he has more upside; he just turned 24 and will bat in the middle of one of the best lineups (on paper) in the majors.
- Chris Davis – Davis had a great season; if you owned Davis and didn’t finish either first or second in your leagues you should consider spending your time doing something else; however, before this season his career slash line was .258/.310/.466. The second half of the 2013 season his slash line was .245/.339/.515 … looks similar to his career numbers; basically, he greatly benefited from a great start of the season and fell back down to earth.
- Prince Fielder – since 2011 his slugging percentage, wOBA and isolated power has decreased year over year; he’ll play most of the 2014 season at 30 years old; this could be the start of an even bigger decline.
- Eric Hosmer – he is legit.
- Allen Craig – with Carlos Beltran likely leaving this offseason, look for Matt Adams to become the everyday first baseman and Craig to be the every day right fielder, which increases his injury risk.
- Adrian Gonzalez – last year he 18 home runs; this year only 22; his power upside may be in the upper 20s and no longer in the mid 30s.
- Anthony Rizzo
- Victor Martinez – he only played 11 games at first this year so check your eligibility rules; after a slow start to the season he went on to have a slash line of .361/.413/.500 after the all-star break.
- Buster Posey
- Nick Swisher – dealt with an undisclosed left shoulder issue all year so it’s difficult to understand how much it may have impacted his performance; Eno Sarris at FanGraphs argues the injury improved his swing.
- Michael Cuddyer – he’s going to be 35 on Opening Day and I doubt he has a .382 BABIP again.
- Carlos Santana
- Mark Trumbo
- Albert Pujols – I want nothing to do with Pujols next year; since his season early, he will have more time to rehab and it’s possible he could be as close to 100 percent healthy, which will make him primed for a big year, but his performance was in decline before 2013 season … count me out.
- Brandon Moss – in his past 801 plate appearances he has 51 home runs, which is 50 more I thought he would have before the start of the 2012 season;
- Matt Adams – if Adams is expected to be the everyday first baseman, he’s a top 10 first baseman for me.
- Mark Teixeira
- Kendrys Morales – had another solid year even though he played in Seattle; he’s a great fit for the Mariners and they have the best chance of retaining his services for 2014.
- Daniel Nava
- Mike Napoli
- Chris Carter
- Brandon Belt – after the all-star break had a slash line of .326/.390/.525; however, he only had seven home runs; my biggest question is will he hit for enough power to be fantasy relevant in 10-12 mixed leagues?
- Ike Davis – after coming back from the minors his slash line was .267/.429/.443 with only four home runs; he has Chris Davis upside is worth a gamble at the end of your drafts
- Adam Dunn
- Mitch Moreland – should be replaced by Ian Kinsler at first base, but if not, he moves up a few spots.
- Adam LaRoche
- Ryan Howard
- Justin Morneau
- James Loney
