The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 34 first basemen. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams.
Before I discuss the state of the position I wanted to note I included DH-only players with the first basemen. First base is where you’ll find power and after the top 6-7 they all provide the same value, but for different reasons.
At first I thought my Anthony Rizzo ranking was too high, but I’m projecting 11 stolen bases, which gives him a huge leg up over his contemporaries. Last year Rizzo had 17 stolen bases. The previous two seasons he had 11. If I change the projection to only five stolen bases he still ranks as the number three first baseman, but it’s a distant third. Rizzo is going to have many plate appearances with men on-base. Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist combined for a .358 OBP last year. Even if Zobrist falls off a little there are other hitters who can step into the top of the order provide a high OBP. Last year he scored 94 runs. I’m projecting 96, but I think that’s too low.
A lot of fantasy players love Edwin Encarnacion, but I’m very wary. I understand the love. He plays in a great hitters ballpark and easily the best lineup in baseball. However, after looking at last year there a lot of warning signs. For the first four months of the season he was hitting .241 with 19 home runs. What was the most troubling was his hard hit rate was 21.7 percent. From 2012-14 it was 28.5 percent. The drop off may sound like a lot, but that’s nearly a 32 percent drop. In the last two months he hit .344 with 20 home runs and a 36.4 percent hard hit rate. I do not like hitters whose value was dependent upon a short time frame, but if you look at his overall numbers it looks like a typical year for him. The bottom line is how someone evaluates his numbers is all about preference and for me there is a higher probability his value decreases than increases or stabilizes.
The Albert Pujols and Greg Bird projections assumes they play a full year. His projection may change dramatically depending on how looks in Spring Training. Bird probably begins the year in the minors, but if he gets called up he’s going to be on everyone’s priority list during the waiver period.
If Chris Carter plays a full year he’s going to h it 30-plus home runs with a batting average in the .220s, but my biggest reservation is he gets traded at the trade deadline and no longer receives everyday at-bats.
Two years ago everyone loved Wil Myers. He was the 2013 Rookie of the Year and he showed his minor league statistics were translating into the Majors. However, in 2014 he was only limited to 87 games due to an injury where he collided with Desmond Jennings. Last year he only played in 60 games due to a wrist injury. Myers is only 25 years old and will likely bat second or third so he’ll have an opportunity to score and drive in runs. The raw talent is certainly there. The question with him is will he be healthy? His current ADP is 213. At that price I’ll buy.
I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As Top 10 First Baseman:
I never believed in Chris Colabello last year but he proved me wrong because he kept hitting. From 2013-14, in 401 plate appearances his slash line was .214/.284/.364. Last year he hit .321 with 15 home runs in only 360 plate appearances. The number that stood out the most was the hard hit rate (24.5 percent). That number may not like much but that is the 33rd highest hard hit rate among qualified hitters last year. If he keeps up last years hard hit rate he could hit 25 home runs with 80-plus RBIs assuming he bats fifth all year. Edwin Encarnacion is basically a DH-only player and Justin Smoak is never going to figure out how to hit so there is a clear path to playing time for Colabello. His ADP is 328, which means he’s basically an after thought. He won’t be for me on draft day.
