The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 28 shortstops. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams.
The shortstop position is incredibly thin. If you’re playing with a middle infield position you’re going to want to fill the position with a second baseman. If you miss out on Carlos Correa this is the position where I’m going to draft stolen bases. Stolen base totals were down league wide. In fact it was the lowest its been since 1974. Elvis Andrus and Jean Segura do not have immense upsides, but you can bank 20-plus bases with upside for 40.
I assumed Wilmer Flores plays every day, but he currently does not have a starting job. I’m probably too low on Jhonny Peralta’s account numbers if he’s going to hit fourth in the lineup (as RosterResource is projecting). My projection of Peralta assumes he splits time in the 5-6 spots in the lineup.
Despite the hard hit rate increase I do not believe the 21 home runs for Brandon Crawford are repeatable. The primary reason is the 14.3 percent HR/FB rate probably will not repeat. So, instead of hitting eight home runs at home he maybe only hits 4-5. I’m projecting 16 home runs so I think the power increase is real, but I’m not going to draft him with 20 home runs as his new baseline.
As a prospect scouts said Xander Bogaerts had the raw power to hit 30-plus home runs. In nearly 1,300 plate appearances he only has 20. He turned 23 this past October so he still has plenty of time to grow into his power. I’m projecting 12 home runs, which feels a little low. I think 14-16 is more realistic, but I digress. It’s reductive to simply say 2015’s batting average was due to BABIP, but all the advanced numbers suggest it was BABIP. For example, he hit .347 on ground balls, the third highest among qualified batters. Looking at the NFBC ADP data it looks like the market is properly valuing Bogaerts.
I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As Top 10 Shortstop:
Of all the players at the position I would not be surprised if Addison Russell takes a giant leap without any statistical indicators. The leap could come as early as 2016. In 2013 I watched him in High-A Stockton and everyone raved about his work ethic. When choosing players that could breakout I prefer players who have better raw tools and pedigree. The biggest impediment for 2016 is he’s going to hit at the bottom of the lineup so his account statistics will be limited. Even if Ben Zobrist or Jason Heyward get hurt there other options that would receive the opportunity atop the lineup. However, if he plays a full year he’s a relative safe bet for a 10/10 with the upside for 20/20.
