The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 23 third basemen. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams.

When looking at third base I recommend drafting one of the top 5-6 third basemen because after that there are a lot of question marks and a ceiling for tremendous upside. Right as I pasted my projections into Google Docs I realized the projected RBI totals for Kyle Seager were too low. The Mariners have OBP issues atop the lineup, but I think he could barely break the 80 barrier (as you will see in the projections below).

The biggest question I have about Justin Turner is can he stay healthy? Last year he dealt with leg and knee issues and he still played the second most games in his career (126). The most games he’s played is 127 in 2011. He turned 31 this past November so expecting more than 125 games played could be far fetched. However, suppose he plays in 135-140 games. He could provide tremendous value. He’s hitting third in a lineup that should at least be above average and most importantly, has the hard hit data to strongly indicate he’s going to drive in a lot of runs.

I’m not buying Matt Carpenter. He hit 28 home runs but that came at a severe cost. The strikeout rate increased seven percentage points (to 22.6 percent) and the swing and miss rate increased nine percentage points compared to the previous season. Despite the new approach his hard hit rate only increased seven percent compared to his career numbers before 2015. The power is going to decrease. The biggest question I have is will the OBP still be there when the power is gone?

If you remove the month of April (where he hit .356) Mike Moustakas was a .270 hitter. That’s still very good in the strikeout era, but if he’s only going to provide 16-21 home runs there’s not a lot of value for the ADP you’re going to have pay on draft day. You may be saying something to the effect of, “he’s still young; he can hit for more power.” He is only 27 years old, but his hard hit rate only increased eight percent while his ground ball rate was the highest it’s been since becoming a full time player. He’ll be a solid player in 2016, but draft appropriately.

I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As Top 10 Third Baseman:

With Brett Lawrie being traded to the White Sox Danny Valencia will get every chance to be the every day third baseman for the A’s. Valencia was mostly used as a platoon bat, but when the A’s claimed him off waivers he played every day and most importantly, he hit. In 47 games he hit 11 homers with a .886 OPS. For his career he has a .237/.275/.389 slash line against righties, but last year he hit .285/.325/.556 with the lowest strikeout rate since 2011. In regards to hard hit contact he ranked 40th among all qualified players so it’s possible he hits 25-plus home runs. He’ll likely begin the year batting fourth and has a very good chance of staying in that spot all year.