If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Right after the 2014 season ended A.J. Burnett had hernia surgery and is expected to be ready for Spring Training. It’s a little reductive to say his numbers should bounce back to the numbers he posted in 2013 even though he had subpar numbers in 2014. A lot has been made how the use of the defensive shift helped Burnett achieve really good numbers in 2013. In 2013 he allowed a .233 batting average when the ball was hit on the ground; last year .223 batting average on ground balls. Instead his poor 2014 season was due to a combination of bad luck and decline in skill set.

When I look at his 2014 statistics it looks like he reverted to the pitcher he was back in 2011when he couldn’t throw his fastball for strikes consistently. After three miserable seasons with the Yankees, Burnett bounced back nicely in two seasons with the Pirates before having a down year with the Phillies. Based on that fact it appears Burnett pitches much better in smaller markets (also could be a small sample bias) so it’s possible he could have a nice bounce back season. The question will he be the 2012 version or the 2013 version?

Not to sound cliché but the reason for the strikeout rate spike in 2013 was due to command. In 2013 he threw his curveball for more strikes so hitters couldn’t sit on any pitch. That’s why his fastball strikeout rate ticked up almost four percentage points. His track record for having command that good only happened in 2013 (my data only goes back to 2008) so the smart money says the 2012 version is more likely to happen in 2015. Some fantasy owners may be concerned by the decreased fastball velocity (image below from BrooksBaseball.net), but I’m not. Even though the average velocity is down, his max velocity only ticked down 0.4 mph last year.

The odds of him returning to 2013 form are not high, but they’re still possible. He pitches in a great pitchers bark, behind a good defense and bullpen and has a greater opportunity to win 14-plus games. On top of all that he could provide 200-plus strikeouts. Most pitchers at his ADP will not have that upside.

My 2015 projection for Burnett is 190 IP, 3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 175 Ks and 13 wins.