If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.
In mid-December the Astros signed Jed Lowrie to a three-year $23M deal, which is odd because they already have Jose Altuve at second base and Carlos Correa, the former number overall pick, is one year (maybe two) away from becoming the shortstop. Either way, he will be the starting shortstop for the Astros in 2015.
If you compare his 2013 season with 2014 the first number that jumps out is the 38 point decrease in BABIP. The logical conclusion would be the BABIP should positively regress next year and he should hit .280-plus. However, I think the 2013 season was his fluke year in regards to his batting average. Prior to 2014 his career slash line is .261/.331/.423, which represents his true talent level. Therefore, Lowrie did perform poorly, which it wasn’t that far from his true talent level.
He suffered a fractured finger in mid-August and missed two weeks. It’s possible that the injury negatively effected his batting average but it was the opposite. When he returned hit for a high average (.295) but it was mostly an empty batting average as only three of his 28 hits were hit for extra bases. Watching him hit it was obvious he wasn’t able to hit the ball with any authority.
Prior to 2013 he has a career 7.0% HR/FB rate and last year it was 3.2% so positive regression should occur. Unlike with the A’s, Lowrie will probably hit in the bottom third of the lineup or maybe in the sixth spot which means his RBIs and run totals will be suppressed. Overall, he’ll hit 10-plus home runs with a .255-plus batting average without much else.
