If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.
Based on Jon Lester’s 2014 numbers, the team he plays for and the contract that team gave him he is going to be one of the most over drafted players next year in drafts. Before the 2014 season began I was not buying Lester as a real life ace because his track record looked more like a number two starter (you can ask Jake Devereaux from Baseball Professor about the lively email debate about this at the start of the 2014 season).
Lester gets a lot of praise for how good his cutter is, but looking at the statistics (table below) the performance of the cutter was good last year, but it was “worse” compared to previous seasons.
| Year | AVG | BABIP | K% | BB% |
| 2008 | .274 | .354 | 20.0% | 8.6% |
| 2009 | .214 | .306 | 30.4% | 5.2% |
| 2010 | .185 | .281 | 32.7% | 5.5% |
| 2011 | .187 | .295 | 35.8% | 7.4% |
| 2012 | .240 | .327 | 28.5% | 7.6% |
| 2013 | .231 | .321 | 28.2% | 5.7% |
| 2014 | .249 | .325 | 26.8% | 5.9% |
Last year his strikeout rate was the highest it’s ever been since 2010 and the reason for this was due to the larger incorporation of the curveball. The image below (from BrooksBaseball.net) shows his swing and miss rate on the curveball since 2007.
The curveball was exceptional last year. Among qualified starting pitchers his curveball had the third highest swing and miss rate (behind Matt Garza and Corey Kluber). It’s no wonder he started throwing the curveball more last year.
Judging by how much he tightened up his release point (image below from BrooksBaseball.net) with his other pitches its no wonder why hitters were having difficulty picking up the curveball out of the hand and swinging and missing more than ever.
The big question is, is this change sustainable? Last year his HR/FB rate was 7.2%, which was the second lowest of his career. You may be thinking his time in Oakland suppressed that number, but in fact he had a 6.5% HR/FB rate with the Red Sox before being traded to Oakland so he actually got lucky last year. It’s possible the reemergence of the curveball caused the lower HR/FB rate, but I think there is going to be some regression next year.
In regards to his wins potential I have questions about their infield and outfield defense. The defense was below average last year and I don’t see any reason for a dramatic improvement in 2015. I have questions about the Cubs bullpen’s ability to hold leads (especially if Pedro Strop is given high leverage innings again).
My projection for 2015 is 210 IP, 200 Ks, 3.15 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 13 wins.
