Altuve went seventh and eighth in ESPN and NFBC leagues respectively and if you drafted him (like I did) you made a slight profit. That said, his 2013 season was a slight disappointment considering he didn’t do one of the two things he was supposed to do, which is score runs. Before the 2013 season I assumed he was almost a lock to score 80-plus runs because I expected him to bat second in the lineup. Well, he did that, but the Astros lineup was extremely bad. There a couple of new faces, Dexter Fowler being the most prominent one, that should help improve the lineup, but overall it’s going to be another bad lineup. It’s possible George Springer could earn a job to begin the season or come up in May. That’s important to monitor because if he made the big league ball club he would be the Astros third or fourth best hitter. If Springer gets a lot of at-bats I’d feel better about projecting Altuve for 75-plus runs, but as of late January fantasy owners should expect 63-68.
What’s a little concerning is the stolen base success rate decreased slightly (from 75 percent to 73 percent). His ability to steal 30-plus bases is important because the majority of his fantasy value comes from stolen bases. Even if only steals 20 stolen bases he’ll provide a negative ROI based on where he’s going in drafts. That said, the Astros are expected to be bad again (they should be improved, though), it’s possible Astros manager, Bo Porter, will still allow him to try to steal bags because winning is not their top priority (at the major league level). Another concern is his isolated power nearly 30 points, which means he was making less hard contact. Last year he saw 15 percent more fastballs than previous years. Subsequently, his batting average dropped from .328 to .280 against fastballs. Barring a fluky BABIP year fantasy owners should expect a year similar to last year, but if the stolen base numbers decrease he’ll provide a huge loss in value because he doesn’t hit for a lower of power, he will not have a lot of RBIs due to poor lineup and there is not a lot of upside he can provide above average runs.
If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.
