If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

I was a big believer in Josh Reddick at the start of the season because he was finally healthy (he was hurt most of 2013 with a wrist sprain) and was a year removed from hitting 32 home runs. However, that didn’t happen as he had an extremely brutal start to the season.

Then in early June he was placed on the DL with a hyper extended knee. He came off the DL after 23 days and proceeded to play in a couple games before being placed on the DL again for the knee. He would go on to miss another 23 days. Once he was fully healthy he started to hit and looked like the player in 2012. The table below shows his first half and second half splits for 2014.

The biggest number that stands out was how much the strikeout rate decreased and how many more fly balls he was hitting. Also, what’s not shown is how much more contact he was making. Since we’re dealing two equally small sample sizes it’s easy to create multiple narratives. I’m a bigger believer in the second half data than the first because a change in approach at the plate must have occurred for the strikeout rate to be cut in half. Maybe he doesn’t hit .299 again, but if he’s making a lot of contact he’s going to have a .260-plus batting average.

In regards to his power numbers, I no longer believe he has the raw power to be a 30-plus home run hitter because in 2012 the average home run distance of his home runs were 376.2 feet and the average for his career is 379.6 feet, which is in the bottom 10% of home run distances. That said, if he’s going to hit fly balls more than 50% of the time he can walk to 20-25 home runs with a 9-10% HR/FB rate.

Since he missed nearly two months of the season with a hyperextended knee that could be the reason why he only stole one base last year, but why did he only have one stolen base before the injury? I can’t point to the low OBP because even in 2013 when he had a .307 OBP he had nine stolen bases. If he can steal 8-plus bases he could be a fifth outfielder in a 10-team mixed league. If he only has 1-3 stolen bases he’s only a deep mixed league option.

I project 500 ABs with a .265 batting average, 20 HRs, 7 SBs with 80/80 runs and RBI.