In this year’s fantasy baseball guide (which can still be downloaded for free) I tried to write about every player that could conceivably be owned in a 15-team mixed league. I try to be perfect, but since I’m a one man show some players slip through the cracks. Two players I want to focus on are Kennys Vargas and Steve Pearce. I’ll write about Vargas today and Pearce tomorrow.
When I wrote the fantasy guide I wrote off Kennys Vargas for two reasons: A) his Major League numbers looked unsustainable and B) I thought his he was too big of a player to catch up to premium velocity. However, when I looked at his numbers he performed really well against fastballs (.385/.420/.673 slash line). I also discounted the nine home runs in 234 plate appearances (17.6% HR/FB rate), which when I read his scouting reports here and here, realized the power he showed a legitimate from both sides of the plate. He’s going to hit fourth or fifth in the Twins lineup and if Joe Mauer returns to his .300-plus batting average Vargas is going to have a lot of at-bats with men on-base.
The downside is he struggled immensely against non-fastballs (against both sides of the plate) as he hit .160/.193/.225 with a 35% strikeout rate and 37.7% WHIFF rate. To put the strikeout rate into context, only 12 qualified hitters had a higher strikeout rate against non-fastballs than Vargas. His walk rates in the minors suggests he understands the strike zone, which could indicate his batting eye should improve in 2015. However, in Joe Sheehan’s Newsletter on February 11, 2015 titled “The Transition” (I couldn’t find a way to link to the content; I suggest subscribing and once you do you can read it) he goes into great detail how the strike zone in majors is much bigger than in the minors. He cites this one of the reasons why players in the minors, who had really good walk rates, suddenly look like they have no idea of the strike zone is. This may continue to be a problem for Vargas in heading into 2015.
When I evaluate players with a small Major League sample I lean very heavily on the scouting reports. If Vargas gets a full year of at-bats he should be able to hit 19-plus home runs. The biggest question is at what batting average? He’s not going to have a .340 BABIP again and his minor league track record says the strikeout rate could decrease, but I have my doubts. The fact he struggled so much against non-fastballs indicates there’s going to be a lot of WHIFF in his game and Major League teams will adjust and throw him fewer fastballs. I’m projecting a .242 AVG with 21 home runs, 75 RBI and 65 runs.
