If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

When I look at Lance Lynn’s 2014 final numbers he doesn’t pass the smell test for me. Last years .293 BABIP was 26 less than his career BABIP prior to 2014. Last years 78.1% LOB% was four and half percentage points higher than his career rate. Last years 6.0% HR/FB rate was two percentage points less than his career rate. Basically, he lot lucky and his numbers are going to regress in 2015 especially because he’s a high walk pitcher.

The big adjustment he made last year was he threw his fastball a lot more against both righties and lefties. By throwing the fastball more he morphed into a bat-to-ball pitcher. Therefore, I’m not surprised his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career and I expect the strikeout rate to be in the 19-20% range next year. Even though the strikeout rate was lower, it was still passable for a 10-team mixed league. What probably will not be talked about is in the past three years he’s had at least 15 wins each season. The Cardinals should be good in 2015 so it’s very likely he’ll have at least 14 wins if he makes 30-plus starts next year.

For 2015 my projection for Lynn is 200 IP, 3.78 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 180 Ks and 14 wins.