If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.
Where to begin? From 2010-13 he’s made at least 31 starts, but last year he was only able to start 16 games. The reason why he only made 16 starts was due to a knee surgery (after slipping on the mound) and elbow inflammation. The elbow inflammation started in April and came up again in September.
Last year his fastball velocity dropped from 94.07 mph to 91.82 in 2014. I have to believe injuries played a major part in the velocity decrease because his velocity was stable for the three years prior and he never had a decrease that big before (image below courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net). Also, his secondary stuff didn’t look the same either; especially the slider.
It can be easy to say he’ll begin the year healthy and rebound. It’s also easy to say he will continue to not be healthy because elbow injuries are more serious. I think we will have to wait to see how he looks in Spring Training to get a better idea on how he’ll perform in 2015.
To quote Keith Law, “Latos has five full years in the majors and has never had an ERA over 3.50 or a FIP over 3.85, and that includes three seasons in a hitter’s park in Cincinnati.” In regards to the “low” strikeout rate in 2012-13 I see that as a positive because he started throwing his two-seamer more to get ground balls, which makes sense considering the Reds ballpark.
Overall, his fantasy value is going to be tied to his health. If he throws 150-plus innings his fantasy owners will make a fairly large profit. As of early January I have no idea if he will be healthy or not, which is why I will conclude with this:
The Reds traded Latos for Anthony DeSclafani and Chad Wallach (catcher). DeSclafani’s ultimate role will be a long reliever because I don’t think he has the arsenal to go through a lineup more than once. In my view the Reds traded Latos away for a bag of magic beans essentially. The Reds knew more about Latos’ medical status better than anyone. If they believed he had a good chance of rebounding in 2015 then why trade him for little? I’m sure they could have gotten more in trade in June/July than now. The retort to that is to look at the Jeff Samardzija trade. The A’s didn’t get that much back in return (at least in the public’s perception) so maybe that was the best offer on the table for the Reds. But if that was the case then why not keep him for a half a year and trade him when his value is higher?
