A show of hands of who saw Carpenter putting up the season he did in 2013? I literally had no idea he had the ability to put up numbers like he did last year. In last year’s guide I had him as a fringe top 15 second base candidate who could score some runs, provide a little pop, but ultimately would regress because the 2012 BABIP was not repeatable. Not only did he repeat the BABIP, it actually increased (from .346 to .359). That begs the question, what will his batting average be in 2014? His contact rate increased nearly six percentage points and his line drive rate increased a little more than four percentage points, which indicates last year’s BABIP could be sustainable. However, he doesn’t benefit from plus speed, which means he’s going to have to find holes in the defense to earn hits. Therefore, the batting average should regress, but only to the .295-.305 range.

Last year his fantasy value was greatly inflated by the 126 runs scored and the 78 RBIs. Next year I believe both regress. If the batting average regresses his run scoring opportunities should decrease. Also, Matt Adams is more likely a downgrade compared to Carlos Beltran. In terms of RBIs, it’s extremely unlikely he bats .330 again with runners in scoring position. That said, the lower third of the lineup has upgraded offensively. For example, Pete Kozma and David Freese are both gone while Jhonny Peralta and Kolten Wong are in. Carpenter’s batting average with men in scoring position should regress, but his opportunities should improve. For example, he only ranked 18^th among second basemen in plate appearances among second basemen. All that said, I only expect him to drive in 60-65 RBIs next year. Since he doesn’t steal bases or hit for a lot power, his fantasy value is going to be derived from the batting average and his runs scored. I believe in Carpenter the player and if he falls to you at the right price you should buy.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.