If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

In 2013 I loved Matt Harvey. I thought he was being criminally under drafted. He had great stuff and was extremely productive in ten starts in the season prior. It’s no surprise I bought low on Harvey in all of my drafts and I rode him to a couple of fantasy titles. All that said I’m probably not going to have Harvey on any of my teams. There are several reasons why I’m staying away:

1. The Mets offense and bullpen will be bad and he won’t have a lot of wins.
2. How many innings will he throw?
3. I do not know how the new changes to the Mets ballpark will effect scoring, but it most likely will not help pitchers.

The biggest reason why I’m staying away is command is the last thing to return post Tommy John Surgery. Adam Wainwright had a TJ in 2011 and he returned in 2012 and had 32 starts. The first 16 starts were far worse than the last 16 (table below). The primary reason was his command was loose and became tighter as the season progressed.

Since the rehab process has improved since Wainwright had his surgery it’s possible Harvey comes out of the gate full bore with his stuff and command in-tact, but as of early January there are too many questions surrounding him that he’s not worth the risk (based on where he’ll likely go in drafts). If he slips into the 50s-60s among starting pitchers I’ll gladly take a flier on Harvey, but I think he’ll drafted as a top 30 pitcher, which is too high of a price for me.

For 2015 I’m projecting Harvey to have 170 IP, 3.41 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 175 Ks and 9 wins.