If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.
After the first four games of the season Oswaldo Arcia went on the DL with wrist inflammation. A big reason why I was avoiding him last year was the league started to make adjustments against and he struggled. Specifically, they started throwing far less fastballs and more breaking pitches. In 2013 he batted .176/.227/.275 with a 40.5% strikeout rate against breaking pitches (curveballs, sliders, changeups and etc). Last year those numbers improved dramatically as he hit .244/.270/.413 against these pitches. You may be asking yourself that slash line is better than overall numbers. You are correct. That means he performed miserably against fastballs (.220/.311/.485) and therefore should positively regress in 2015.
He’s still early on into his career, but he may have to be ultimately platooned against left handed pitching because he sports a .224/.266/.347 slash line in 259 PAs. Since the Twins do not have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs in 2015 hopefully they’ll allow Arcia to play every day (to get a better idea if he’s making positive adjustments against lefties). The fact he had 20 home runs in a shortened season may cause some fantasy owners to believe he could 28-plus home runs (which is based on his scouting report), but except for a random extraordinarily high HR/FB rate I don’t see it happening. In regards to the Twins home ballpark, it hasn’t had any negative effect on his power. He has a career 16.5% HR/FB rate at home and 17.4% on the road. I’m projecting to hit 23 home runs with a .259 batting average in 500 PAs.
I would bat him fourth in the lineup, but you never know with the Twins. In regards to the RBI totals it’s going to change dramatically based on where he hits in the lineup. Be sure to check back at the Fantasy Guide section with updated projections.
