In most cases its cheap analysis to say (about any player), “this is a contract year and this offseason he’s going to motivate himself to get in the greatest shape of his life.” However, when it comes to Sandoval and his continuous lack of #want for not being in shape and being ready to play every day, this is especially important. There’s no doubt in my mind and Giants management, which is pure speculation on my part, his poor conditioning has contributed to his inability to maximize his true talent, which makes it more difficult to evaluate his career numbers. I’ve had the opportunity to meet Sandoval in a social setting and living in San Francisco affords me the opportunity to read about his shenanigans in the local media. This is a player who values partying more than playing the game, but with free agency looming I’m very confident this offseason he will get in the best shape of his life and put his best foot forward to having the best year he can possibly have.

Other than missing 14 games with a strained left foot Sandoval has healthy the whole year. In terms of statistical analysis, last year he had the lowest ISO of his career against fastballs (.136) and on fly balls (.327). The lack of hard contact led to the lowest batting average on fly balls in his career. The table breaks below down his performance on fly balls since 2009 (green cells) opposed to his overall numbers (blue cells).

You’ll notice in two of the five years he has isolated power greater than .500. In those two years is when he hit 20-plus home runs. It’s also no surprise he had his two best batting average seasons when he was making hard contact. I believe the lack of hard contact was primarily due to a lack of conditioning and I have to bet he’ll be in the best shape of his life (yes, another cliché) when he arrives at spring training. Therefore, I bet he hits 20-25 home runs with a .280-.290 batting average.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.