Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

During the 2010 season Salazar had a TJ surgery. After the 2011 season, the Indians placed him on their 40-man roster even though he only made 15 starts the previous two seasons because of the TJ surgery and still haven’t gone beyond Single-A.

After the surgery, “According to multiple reports, post-surgery, Salazar actually has added some life on his fastball. Instead of just generally touching the mid-90s, he’s now hitting 98 and consistently reaching 94-96. This isn’t all that uncommon, as Jon actually referenced an article yesterday about relievers and their revitalization following a second UCL reconstruction.” (Source: Jacob Rosen). His fastball is extremely electric and it’s no surprise how aggressive he is when he throws it, primarily up in the zone (image below courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net).

Combine that information with two above average secondary offerings you begin to the makings of a four category stud and a top 10-15 fantasy pitcher (in terms of ultimate ceiling). There are questions if he can hold up to a starters workload, but he pitched 145 innings between the majors and minors last year and showed no signs of fatigue. Also with the pending loss Ubaldo Jimenez the Indians are going to give Salazar every opportunity to be successful as a starter. That said, if he doesn’t work out as a starter he can be the best closer in baseball. Some fantasy owners may have concerns about the aggressiveness with the fastball or the injury history, but Salazar’s ceiling is too high to pass up. According to Tristan H. Cockcroft’s initial rankings at ESPN, he has him ranked 70th overall, just behind Yovani Gallardo and Dan Straily. To me that’s crazy because of his ultimate ceiling and he should provide elite level strikeouts and a low walk rate, which will keep his WHIP down. I am going to target him in all of my drafts.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

The table provides an aggregate totals of Wacha’s entire 2013 season in the majors (regular season plus playoffs for a total of 95.3 innings).

He’s primarily a two-pitch pitcher (fastball and changeup) who relied on fastball command to get outs. Even though he only throws two pitches both of them are extremely good. His fastball sits in the 93-95 mph range and can touch 98 mph. Since he’s so tall he has an extremely high release point and gives him a big stride. When you combine these two facts when he throws the fastball (or any pitch) the pitch is going to look two to three mph faster than what it really is because of the downward plane and the deep release point (where he lets go of the ball). He throws a circle changeup with a lot of deception and late fade that is the perfect companion to the fastball.

Don’t get me wrong, Wacha looked really good, but there are red flags. If it wasn’t for the .250 BABIP the 1.04 WHIP would have been much higher. In general I’m not a fan of two-pitch pitchers sustaining elite level numbers because it’s only a matter of time hitters will figure him out. When a pitcher only throws two pitches hitters will have a 50 percent chance of guessing correctly which pitch will be thrown. The biggest red flag is Wacha’s great performance down the stretch and during the playoffs was seen by everyone, which means you’ll probably have to pay full price to acquire him because the hype surrounding him will be a lot higher compared to his young contemporaries (Danny Salazar and Yordano Ventura). That means he will have to hit those lofty expectations in order to get any sort of profit.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

It doesn’t take a scout to know why Volquez has struggled for most of his career; it’s the walks and the fact he doesn’t know where the ball is going the majority of time. That said, there is room for optimism as he does have electric stuff and he showed signs of increased control last year as the walk rate decreased a little more than three percentage points. The decreased walk rate is great, but it came at the expense of the strikeout rate as it decreased three percentage points.

He also performs much better in pitcher friendly parks (as most pitchers do). The table below provides a breakdown of his performance in favorable ballparks (i.e. pitcher friendly) versus non-favorable ballparks. Favorable ballparks are defined as: San Francisco, Oakland, San Diego, Houston, Miami, Tampa Bay, Los Angeles (both AL & NL) and last, but not least Pittsburgh.

The guy we saw in 2008 who posted a 3.21 ERA and 24.6 percent strikeout rate is not coming back, but I believe Volquez does have fantasy value as a streaming option when he pitches at home. That said, every time you start him you’re playing with fire, but last year the Pirates turned around another similar pitcher with electric stuff and control issues (Francisco Liriano). Why can’t they do the same for Volquez?

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.