Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Before I evaluate Vogelsong’s performance in 2013 I want to discuss what led up to the 2013 season. He pitched 24 more innings in the postseason, bringing his total innings to 213, by far the most he’s thrown in his career. Also, he pitched in the World Baseball Classic. During the season he suffered a fluke injury where he broke his pinky finger on a bunt attempt and missed nearly three months of the season.

Much has been said about the decrease in fastball velocity, which was nearly down 2 mph last year, but I want to focus on his two-seam fastball, which had a 9.5 score in 2012, but had a -9.4 in 2013 (per FanGraphs). For a drop in effectiveness to be that dramatic there had to be something wrong besides a drop in velocity. I’ll also note the fastball score in 2012 (9.5) decreased from 16.3 in 2011 so there was a fairly substantial drop before. Given his age and the workload in the playoffs and before the season he could have been suffering from fatigue before the season began.

Most of the damage imposed on him came from right handed batters; from 2011-12 they hit .231 (with a .272 BABIP) against him, but last year they hit .327 (with a .348 BABIP). He was also unlucky when first pitching to batters. On 0-0 counts he had a .449 batting average against with .396 BABIP and 63 percent ground ball rate, which indicates he was extremely unlucky. Also, with men on base he had .357 batting average against with a .373 BABIP, which is another indicator he was unlucky last year. It’s possible he these numbers were inflated due to poor performance and pitch location, but with the majority of fantasy community quickly writing him off means he could be a great buy low candidate.

Some fantasy owners will simply write him off as a pitcher with limited upside because of the age, decline in velocity and overall mediocre stuff, but for two years he was a top 30 starting pitcher. If I told you could potentially acquire a top 30 starting pitcher for one dollar or in the late part of your draft you would jump at the opportunity. I’m going to target him in all my drafts because I believe he suffered from bad luck and I’m not convinced it’s impossible he cannot return to his former self. And if he does not revert back to form, then it’s an easy drop.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

At the start of spring training Zack Greinke was diagnosed with elbow inflammation and at the time of the diagnosis was seen a minor injury. That proved to be true as he was able to begin the year on the opening day roster. Other than Carlos Quentin breaking his collar bone Greinke had a healthy season. Despite what the ERA suggests, there are some major red flags with Greinke heading into 2014.

First of all he started throwing the slider a lot less compared to previous years (image below from BrooksBaseball.net). In past years, he’d thrown it between 15-20 percent of the time. However, last year, it’s about five percent of the time. I will mention during the last two months of the season there was a spike in his slider usage, which resembled the usage of previous years. Why does decreased slider usage have a big effect on his 2014 value? Since 2008 the slider has been his most used secondary pitch. During that time the slider has a 53.6 percent strikeout rate, which makes it even more odd he would suddenly scrap that pitch in 2013. A possible reason why he scrapped the slider was due to elbow problems, which can be exacerbated by throwing a lot of sliders.

Instead of throwing the slider he threw more cut fastballs and changeups. This change resulted in the strikeout rate dropping two and a half percentage points last year, which was the lowest its been since 2010. To recap, he abandoned the slider the same year he reportedly had elbow inflammation. Therefore, I’m concerned about his health moving forward.

Second, Greinke had a great year, but there are signs he was lucky. For example, he had a six percent HR/FB rate on the road, which is not likely to be repeated again. Also, the .276 BABIP and 81 percent LOB% rates are clear numbers that should regress as well. Overall, Greinke’s numbers are going to regress from 2013; add a potential elbow problem that manifested itself in a decreased usage of the slider, his best pitch, creates a recipe I do not want to have on my fantasy team.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

Ok, I know what you’re thinking; that Travis Wood got lucky last year, which I agree looks to be correct when you only look at his 2013s numbers. However, in three of his last four seasons (in the majors) he has BABIPs less than .260 and HR/FB rates less than seven percent. That said, last year’s LOB% rate of 77.4 percent should regress as he has a 70 percent LOB% career rate. Despite being a fly ball pitcher he’s shown that he’s able to induce a lot of weak contact despite not having plus stuff, which consists of primarily two pitches: a fastball and cutter.

Wood began his career with the Reds, playing two seasons for them before being acquired by the Cubs. After doing a little digging I noticed his career stats are being held down due to playing Great American Ballpark (Cincinnati’s ballpark). The table below compares his performance at Great American Ballpark (GAB) versus everywhere else; small sample size caveat as he has only thrown 97 innings at GAB.

If you combine the advanced statistics with his performance away from GAB he becomes a sneaky draft day value because he will likely be overlooked because of his “lucky” 2013 season. His ERA will likely regress, but not as much as you think; probably to the 3.60-3.80 range. Also, he’ll most likely have a sub-1.20 WHIP with a reasonable strikeout rate on a team that has a revamped bullpen and a team that should be better in general, which equates to a higher likelihood earning wins.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.