Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

By now you may have heard the A’s traded for Drew Pomeranz and Chris Jensen in exchange for often injured Brett Anderson. This is not a shock to most A’s fans as there have been rumors he’s been on the trade block since the offseason began. The question all A’s fans is: was this a good trade?

Pomeranz is the key to the deal. He is a former fifth overall pick by the Cleveland in the 2010 draft and found his way to Colorado in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal on July 2011. In his brief time in the majors he has a 5.17 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 18.9 percent strikeout rate and 12.1 percent walk rate. So needless to say he has been inconsistent. In 2013 he was limited a bicep tendinitis (in his left arm), which plagued him for most of the season, which could be the reason for his poor performance (in the majors and minors).

At this point in his development he’s a two pitch pitcher with a low to mid-90s fastball with a biting curveball; it wasn’t so good in Colorado, but it should look a lot better in Oakland. In his time in the majors what was lacking was the command of a third pitch (changeup). If he’s going to be a starter he is going to have to develop the changeup to consistently get right handed batters out. If the changeup doesn’t develop he’ll be a great setup man in the bullpen; think another Sean Doolittle, but with a better breaking ball.

From the A’s perspective they save $6 million dollars in payroll and get a former top five pick and maybe a backend rotation pitcher in Jensen. What’s not being talked about is the A’s player development staff. The A’s may not be able draft well (I’ll believe Addison Russell when I see him … side note: I have seen and spoken with him and he’s going to be really good), but they can develop pitchers. Current examples include: A.J. Griffin, Dan Straily, Sonny Gray and Jarrod Parker.

Pomeranz will most likely begin the year in Sacramento (triple-a) without a lot of pressure to perform because the A’s are not counting on him in 2014. In terms of raw stuff he’s leaps and bounds better than Griffin, Straily and Tommy Milone. If Pomeranz can make a comeback he will most likely be called up during the middle of the year which would make the rotation even more formidable. Also, he provides Scott Kazmir insurance in case he gets hurt; I know Milone is available but Milone is a fringe major leaguer.

In the past 48 hours the A’s have acquired the following players: Jim Johnson, Luke Gregerson, Scott Kazmir, Craig Gentry and Josh Lindblom. Also, do not forget about the signing of Nick Punto a week or two ago. In order to acquire some of these players they had to jettison Chris Bostick, Michael Choice, Seth Smith and Jemile Weeks.

After hearing about Gregerson, the last trade of the day (12.3.13), I was extremely excited about the acquisitions. In a short amount of time he created the second best bullpen in the majors (the Royals have the best) without sacrificing any major pieces to do so. This a bullpen built for the playoffs because they have four good-elite relievers with Johnson, Gregerson, Sean Doolittle and Ryan Cook. I’ll admit Cook started to fade at the year of year as he couldn’t throw strikes and became very hittable. Obviously Beane wanted to have an insurance policy in case Cook doesn’t regain the magic he had the first 1.5 years in the majors. As we know the shelf life of a reliever is very short so it’s possible Beane doesn’t believe Cook can regain his old stuff. Another possibility is Cook has been overused the past two seasons and needs a lesser workload. Either way, Cook now slots in as the 6th-7th inning reliever instead of the 8th so even if he’s only 80 percent of what he used to be he’ll be one of the best 6th-7th inning relievers in the game. What’s the most interesting is the A’s are allotting 25-30 percent of their payroll their bullpen.

When I first saw the Gentry and Lindblom trade for Choice and Bostick I didn’t like the trade because I was expecting Choice to be a mainstay in left field / DH for the next four-five years. Choice has the raw power that wouldn’t be hindered by the O.co ballpark, draws a lot of walks and most importantly, would be cost controlled. In Gentry they get an insurance policy if Coco Crisp or Yoennis Cespedes were to get hurt because he’s a really good defender and can mash lefties. Basically he’s filling the Chris Young role, but with better defense.

I’m sure this is not the last deal Billy Beane is going to make because the A’s payroll is approximately $75-80 million, which is nearly twenty million dollars more than last year’s payroll. Obviously the biggest player whose likely to be traded is Brett Anderson, but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk he’s gone. With Smith and Choice gone they do not have a traditional DH on the roster. However, they do have John Jaso, whose a below average defender, but has a career .364 OBP and would look really nice first or ninth in the batting order. Obviously Jason would have to be platooned because he cannot hit lefties. This is where Gentry comes in. Gentry could play the OF and give the other outfielders DH (specifically Crip and Cespedes) without missing a beat defensively or offensively. It would be a little odd to carry three catchers, but the A’s have never been afraid of out of the box thinking.

I’m very curious to see what happens with Alberto Callaspo and Eric Sogard at second base. The way the roster stands right now, one of them will likely be the odd man out. If money is an issue then Callaspo is the obvious choice because he is due to make nearly $5M dollars next year and could be attractive to other teams, the Royals for example. I’d prefer to have to Sogard back because he’s a plus defender with good range and is the perfect compliment to the poor defense Lowrie provides.

The bottom line is the A’s are pushing all their chips in for 2014 and 2015, which is very exciting because some teams are afraid to make such a move (Jon Daniels, the Rangers GM for example). If you’re an A’s fan, stay on your toes because Beane is probably not done yet and is one piece away from building a legitimate championship contender.

Historically (Texas) Rangers Ballpark has been one of the best hitter’s ballparks in the majors. One of the reasons why the ballpark has been such a bam box has been due to the stream of air that flows through home plate, creating more loft in the ball after the ball is hit. After the 2012 season ended the Rangers upgraded sections of their ballpark. Specifically, removing the entrance behind home plate. The reason for this was to leave open area for fans to view the game, but this also allowed the wind blow through. The question for fantasy owners was what, if any, effect would this have on the offensive statistics. Richard Durrett’s article (linked above) suggests the data is mixed in terms of the impact, if any, it would have.

In 2013 the Rangers ranked eighth in the majors in runs scored and in home runs. However, in 2012 they ranked first in runs scored and fifth in home runs; in 2011 they ranked third in runs scored and second in home runs. Obviously the roster in 2013 was completely different than last year (Josh Hamilton is the one big notable loss) so the decrease in offense could be due roster construction. However, let’s look at the performance of the players who played for the Rangers the past three seasons to see what changes, if any, occurred. I looked at the following players: Elvis Andrus, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Moreland, Adrian Beltre, Craig Gentry, Ian Kinsler and David Murphy.

The data looks pretty compelling, but again we’re dealing with a sample size of 1,617 at-bats versus 3,311 at-bats. Also, not every player regressed; Kinsler, Beltre and Gentry all had similar years compared to the two years prior.

According to StatCorner (image below) their home run values decreased by 37 percent and their run values decreased by 10.7 percent. This adds more evidence to suggest that is this effecting the offensive output potential. However, I looked at the fly ball and home run distances for each player and all of them had distances similar to the previous two years (within seven feet).

To conclude, it is too early to tell the impact the adjustments have had on the offense for the Rangers, but this is something I’m going to monitor closely next year especially with the addition of Prince Fielder.

Lastly, you can checkout my opinions on Brett Lawrie and Hanley Ramirez here and here.