Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

By now, we fantasy aficionados all aware of we’re at historic levels in terms of strikeout rates. Since 2008, strikeout rates have increased year over year and 2013 was even higher (0.1 percent) than 2012. Therefore, it’s important to adjust the strikeout rate used a benchmark when evaluating starting pitchers for 2014. The graph below shows pitcher’s strikeout rates and batting average against since 1982.

On draft day every fantasy owner should have targets for each category. In general, it takes roughly 90-92 points to win a 5×5 roto league with 12 teams with weekly lineups. Therefore, fantasy owners should strive to finish third and fourth in every category.

For strikeouts, last year 1,400 strikeouts was more or less were the requirement. A pitching staff (with nine pitchers starting) will throw roughly 1,494 innings, of which, 1,314 will come from starting pitchers and 180 innings from relievers. In terms of the strikeout ratios, 85-88 percent of the strikeouts will come from starting pitchers. If you take 1,400 and multiple it by 87 percent you get 1,218 strikeouts needed from starters and 182 from relievers.

Now that we have these two end points we can calculate what strikeout rate is needed from starting pitchers in order to achieve 1,218 strikeouts. On average a starting pitcher has 4.25 plate appearances per inning so if you multiply 4.25 by 1,314 you get 5,584.5; if you divide that number by 1,218 you get 21.81 percent. Therefore, starting pitchers need to have a strikeout rate of 21.81 percent in order to achieve 1,218 strikeouts.

Last year there were only 44 pitchers who pitched at or above the 21.8 percent threshold (with at least six games started). With strikeouts at such a premium, rostering extremely high strikeout pitchers such as Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer will provide extra roster flexibility and allow fantasy owners to win the strikeouts category.

Random tangent, suppose Darvish did not lose the four 1-0 games and finished the year with 16 wins instead of 13, rating Darvish as the number one fantasy pitcher would have more support. That said, the more I’m thinking about it, the more I like Darvish as my number one pitcher next year.

In order to finish third in saves requires approximately 99-103 saves, which is only 33 saves per pitcher (supposing you draft three closers). Using the same method outlined above, the strikeout rate needed from closers is 24.5 percent. The math calculation is as follows: 180 innings multiplied by 4.13 (plate appearances they face per inning) equals 743.4; 182 strikeouts divided by 743.4 equals 24.5 percent. Most closers fulfill this strikeout rate so during the evaluation period fantasy owners should focus on the pitchers job security and overall effectiveness.

It’s also possible to fulfill this requirement by drafting closers near the end of your drafts. For example, last year I drafted Grant Balfour, Jason Grilli and Casey Janseen in the 16^th and 17^th round and their final totals were 105 saves and 196 strikeouts, both of which are above the thresholds needed for this category. In 2014 let the Craig Kimbrell, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen proponents use an early 5^th-7^th round pick on them and you can wait on saves.

Before I begin to look at the A’s offseason, it’s important to talk about the budget. The graph below shows the A’s payroll since 2003 (green line) and a trend line (gray line). The A’s had the fourth lowest budget in the majors with $61,964,500 (source: BaseballProspectus.com), which about the average payroll the past 11 seasons. I’m not going to speculate if their budget will increase or decrease, but I will say their budget increased 17 percent from 2012 to 2013 so it’s possible their budget increases even more in 2014. Supposing their budget remains the same, there will not be a lot of payroll flexibility. Even though some high priced talent will be gone: Chris Young, Grant Balfour and Bartolo Colon, existing players are going to get pay bumps because they’re entering their arbitration years and / or will have their options picked up (Coco Crisp and Brett Anderson).

Based on my metrics the A’s have a little more than five million dollars to play with, which is insanely low (the end of the article has a breakdown of the salaries of the players [for players entering their arbitration years I estimated their salaries]). It’s highly unlikely they go into the offseason with that much wiggle room, which means they will either receive a larger budget or they will jettison high salary players. I believe both are likely to happen. Rumors have already circulated the Blue Jays are interested in Brett Anderson. Whatever happens this offseason, I’m eagerly waiting what the A’s are going to do because there are endless possibilities. For more clarity on those possibilities, feel free to checkout my position-by-position breakdown below.

Position-by-position breakdown

Catcher: Kurt Suzuki is gone, but do not worry he will find another job. Derek Norris will be back as a pseudo backup. John Jaso, if he recovers from post-concussion symptoms, will be the primary catcher. Stephen Vogt, if everyone is healthy will begin the year in Sacramento (triple-a).

First base: Nate Frieman will likely platoon with Brandon Moss again. Daric Barton will either be back in Sacramento or will be playing for another team’s minor league system; I wouldn’t be surprised if Barton is the opening day first baseman because this organization has a special place in their hearts for him.

Second base: I completely wrote off Eric Sogard as nothing more than a stop gap for Grant Green when he made the opening day roster, but he impressed me with his superb defense.  Sogard’s upside is a second division starter, who should be starting on a bad team, but on the A’s, he should be a utility player. Quick question, how old is Jemile Weeks? 26. In fact he’ll be 27 in January. The A’s have given up on Weeks and something will have gone horribly wrong if the plays for them in any month besides September. Scott Sizemore missed most of the 2013 after re-tearing his surgically repaired ACL. Maybe he receives a one year minor league deal, but the ship may have sailed for Sizemore.

Shortstop: Jed Lowrie will be back, but at what position? Anyone who watched more than ten games knows Lowrie is a below average defensive shortstop. Ideally he should be playing second base and hopefully he should accept the move if asked to do so. There’s been a lot of internet chatter about how good Addison Russell has looked in the AFL and how it’s not insane that he could be in the majors in July / August. I was fortunate to see Russell bat against Santiago Casilla, who was rehabbing and he barreled up a 95 mph fastball to left center. Ideally the A’s can find a solid defensive option to hold the fort before Russell comes; options include Clint Barmes (he would be a great fit) and Brendan Ryan. Lastly, it looks as though the Hiroyuki Nakajima signing is a sunk cost.

Third base: Josh Donaldson will be back at the hot corner again. If Alberto Callaspo remains on the team, he’ll most likely be a platoon player with Sogard and will spell Donaldson. However, I bet Callaspo is traded this offseason, especially with a weak free agent third base market and his salary is too high ($4.5M) for a platoon player.

Outfield: Yoensis Cespedes will be back again in left field. Josh Reddick had surgery on his aligning wrist and is expected to be 100 percent for the start of spring training. Billy Beane has already said Coco Crisp’s $11 million dollar option will be picked up so it looks as though the outfield will remain in-tact. Seth Smith is likely to be back, primarily at DH. The biggest question is the prospect Michael Choice. From everything I’ve read suggests he’s ready to play in the majors right now, but will most likely receive a call-up in late June to avoid being a Super Two player. Supposing Choice makes the opening day roster, there’s no reason to have a player like Smith because if Choice is in the majors, he’s going to play every day and should not be platooned.

Starting pitchers: Looks like the entire rotation will be back except for Bartolo Colon. However, Sonny Gray will take Colon’s spot in the rotation. A lot of fans are still dazzled by Gray’s game twos start in the ALDS, but he’s still a two-pitch pitcher and still needs to refine his changeup to have sustained success. It’s very interesting what the A’s do with Brett Anderson. Will be in the rotation or the bullpen next year? He has a number two starter ceiling, but I’m not believing the dream anymore. If Anderson is in the bullpen the rotation will consist of: Jarrod Parker, A.J. Griffin, Gray, Dan Straily and Tom Milone. Ideally, they should sign another starter for more organizational depth.

Bullpen: With Grant Balfour likely gone, it looks as though Sean Doolittle will take over closing duties. If Doolittle becomes the closer, Ryan Cook will remain as the eighth inning option and Dan Otero becoming the seventh inning option. However, that bullpen will not strike fear for opposing managers, which is why they will add 1-2 bullpen arms with one of them being a high risk, high upside player on a one year deal and inserting them into the closer’s role. Examples of players like this are Ryan Madson, Joba Chamberlain, Kyle Farnsworth or Joel Hanrahan. The other relievers, Jerry Blevins, Jesse Chavez and others are low leverage relieves that will not have a major impact on the A’s season if the aforementioned relievers do not miss significant amount of time.

This the last section of a three part pitching series. When writing the player capsules I realized I was way too pessimistic on guys and overly optimistic on guys, which is why these are initial rankings (duh).

Previous rankings: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop Outfield part one and part two, Pitchers part one, part two, and part three.

68. Taijuan Walker – has the raw stuff to be a top 20 fantasy pitcher; will most likely being the year in triple-a to work commanding the curveball and changeup; if he begins the year in the Mariners rotation he’s a top 30-40 pitcher.

69. Brandon Beachy – command is normally the last thing a pitcher regains after a TJ surgery; 2014 will be a transitional year, but if he slips enough in drafts he could be a tremendous value.

70. Kyle Lohse – extremely good real life pitcher, but with only a 15.5% strikeout rate, he’ll put your pitching staff at a disadvantage in terms of strikeouts unless you have a top 5 strikeout pitcher.

71. Jake Peavy – strikeout rate dropped seven percentage points (16.9%) after being acquired by the Red Sox.

72. Tony Cingrani – relies too heavily on the fastball to maintain 2013s numbers.

73. Bartolo Colon – would be ranked in the 40-50 range if he resigns with the A’s; unlikely he’ll have a 6% HR/FB rate and / or 80% LOB rate again.

74. Ubaldo Jimenez – in his last 22 starts, he had a 2.40 ERA, 1.32 WHIP with a 25.2% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate; if you’re a believer then he’s a top 30 pitcher, but the walk rate scares me.

75. Brett Anderson – the odds of Anderson making 27+ starts is less than 10%, but if he does, he’s a borderline top 20 fantasy pitcher; there’s some chatter that he may be traded to the Blue Jays, which, if happens lowers his value.

76. Travis Wood – doubt he can maintain a 77.4% LOB rate, 6.9% HR/FB rate while walking 8% of batters.

77. Hyun-Jin Ryu – will be overrated in drafts, but he doesn’t have the stuff to repeat 2013s performance.

78. Tanner Roark – pitched well enough to earn a spot in the Nationals rotation; in 14 starts he had a 1.51 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP; stats inflated by the quality of the competition with half of those starts coming against the Marlins, Mets, Cubs and Giants.

79. Yovani Gallardo – probably have Gallardo too low because he was a proven pitcher before 2013 and it looks as though he suffered from bad luck in 2013.

80. Jon Lester – like Gallardo, I probably have Lester to low on the list; fastball increased to levels back in 2010; his fly ball rate increased a little more than six percentage points and his HR/FB rate was only 8.3%; if the HR/FB rate increases to 10-11%, his career norm, you’re looking at an average pitcher.

81. Chris Tillman – every time I see him pitch I don’t understand why he’s so effective; he’s a fly ball pitcher who gave up 33 home runs, third most in the majors; if his 80.5% LOB rate regresses to his normal levels he could end up with an ERA in the 4’s.

82. Felix Doubront – if he only he could reduce the walks he could more useful than a streaming option.

83. Wade Miley – very consistent pitcher with little upside; great streaming option because he plays in the NL West.

84. Bronson Arroyo – solid fantasy pitcher who won’t destroy your teams ratios; should be drafted in shallow leagues because pitchers like Arroyo can be found on the waiver wire.

85. Dan Straily – can be brilliant and awful inning to inning; the minor league leader in strikeouts two years ago is nothing more than a number 3/4 real life pitcher; hard to trust Straily even as a streaming option because he’s inconsistent.

86. Marco Estrada – after the all-star break (in nine starts) he had a 2.15 ERA and 0.75 WHIP with a 26.3% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate; strikeout rate increased six percentage points after the all-star break as well as threw more strikes; breakout candidate.

87. Edwin Jackson – performed better than his 4.98 ERA would indicate; stuff is still in tact; suffered from a 63.3% LOB rate and .322 BABIP.

88. CC Sabathia – in his last 20 starts he had a 5.43 ERA, 1.43 WHIP; his name value will likely result in him going way earlier than he should; should be ranked lower, but his upside is immense.

89. Ian Kennedy – will most likely never repeat his 2011 seasons where he posted 21 wins and a 2.88 ERA; extreme fly ball pitcher who should benefit from pitching in Petco; in six games at Petco he had a 2.55 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

90. Paul Maholm – regressed after a solid 2012 season; reserving judgement until he signs with a team.

91. Ryan Dempster – can miss bats, but in Fenway Park, can blow up at any moment.

92. Nathan Eovaldi – looks as though he may not have a huge platoon split against left handed hitters; even so, his 3.39 ERA is lower than what his WHIP (1.32) should generate.

93. Alexi Ogando – unlikely to begin the year in the Rangers rotation, but if he does, hes a top 40 fantasy pitcher.

94. Erasmo Ramirez – love of mine in the preseason; strike throwing machine with solid stuff;

95. James Paxton – unless the changeup, his third pitch, develops, he’s more likely a reliever.

96. Joe Kelly – can definitely light up a radar gun, but the only problem is he doesn’t miss bats with it (14.8% strikeout rate); will most likely start the year in the rotation, but will most likely end the year with an ERA in the 4’s.

97. Wei-Yin Chen – his best fantasy asset will be the potential for wins.

98. Jason Vargas – extreme fly ball pitcher; value depends on the team he signs with this offseason.

99. Josh Johnson – when picking this low, you’re should draft for upside and his upside may be the highest of any pitcher.

100. Tim Lincecum – received a two year deal with the Giants so he will get to pitch once again in favorable pitching matchups the majority of the year (in terms of ballpark factors); the last two years he has been below average, but his ERA has been substantially higher than his FIP and xFIP so there is room for optimism (the Giants are paying him as if there is a higher chance he turns it around); two straight years with 190+ strikeouts, which makes him a good addition if you draft low strikeout rate guys like Jordan Zimmerman and / or Jarrord Parker.