Below is part two (of three) the starting pitcher rankings for 2014. Part one can be found here. The players are ranked as if I was doing a fantasy draft today. In general, these are the types of pitchers who may not have the 21% strikeout rate, but provide elite level performance in other categories.
Previous rankings: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop Outfield part one and part two, Pitchers part one, part two, and part three.
35. Hiroki Kuroda – it’s possible Kuroda could retire, but not very likely; it seems extremely likely the Yankees will bring him back on a year deal.
36. Francisco Liriano – got lucky with his strand rate; strikeout rate maintained and he reduced his walk rate nearly three percentage points compared to 2012.
37. Justin Masterson – increased his strikeout rate nearly seven percentage points; appeared to finally figure out a way to get lefties out.
38. Kris Medlen – no statistical outliers suggest he should have another similar year in 2014; only walked 5.7% of batters, which allows his 19.2% strikeout rate to play up.
39. Chris Archer – only had 19.2% strikeout rate, but has the raw stuff to miss a lot of bats. After David Price is traded, he is almost guaranteed a spot in the starting rotation.
40. Johnny Cueto – biggest question for Cueto is health.
41. Andrew Cashner – 1.95 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at Petco vs 4.00 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the road (in 2013); more valuable in H2H leagues.
42. Doug Fister – had a 54% ground ball rate and could be headed for a breakout with Jose Iglesias manning shortstop for an entire year; also, the poor defense could be the reason why is ERA has been higher than his FIP and xFIP the past two seasons.
43. Rick Porcello – see Doug Fister; also increased his strikeout rate 5.5 percentage points and will turn only 25 in December.
44. Sonny Gray – two pitch pitcher who will get figured out unless the changeup becomes more than a “show me” pitch; the two pitches he does throw are easily plus though.
45. Corey Kluber – probably have him ranked too low; if he can stay healthy, he’ll most likely finish in the top 25 among starting pitchers.
46. John Lackey – turned himself into a strike throwing and ground ball generating machine.
47. Ivan Nova – after coming off the DL, in late June, he was fantastic (in 17 starts); in those starts he had a 2.70 ERA, 1.19 WHIP with a 18.8% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate.
48. Ricky Nolasco – bucked the strikeout rate trend; went from 15% in 2012 to 19.8% in 2013; if that rate continues he could have a very good year pitching in the friendly confines of Dodger stadium and in the worst division in the majors.
49. Matt Moore – his scouting reports made me a big fan of his for the past two seasons, but at a certain point you cannot ignore the statistical data; he simply walks too many batters to be a consistent fantasy option; he has the upside to be a top ten pitcher, but I’ll wait until he puts it all together.
50. Jered Weaver – strikeout rates and fastball velocity continue to drop, but still plays in a good pitchers park and behind a good offense when healthy.
51. Zack Wheeler – probably too high on him; he still has command issues and will play behind another bad offense and bullpen; will most likely go too high in drafts to be any sort of value.
52. Trevor Rosenthal – if he begins the year in the rotation, he’s a top 20 pitcher.
53. R. A. Dickey – dealt with a myriad of injuries in 2013; second half peripherals (3.56 ERA and 1.17 WHIP) suggest he could be an extremely valuable late round flier.
54. Clay Buchholz – will have a lot of hype going into drafts, but I’ve never been fan of the stuff.
55. Ervin Santana – benefited greatly from pitching behind the best defense in the majors and in a good pitchers park; if plays for another team he won’t have that benefit (duh).
56. Matt Garza – after being acquired by the Rangers he posted a 4.38 ERA and 1.32 WHIP; that said, his peripherals look the same as they did when he pitched for the Cubs.
57. Eric Stults – very good-elite pitcher when he pitches at home; recommend using him in tandem with other pitchers with dramatic home-road splits; example: pitchers in Colorado.
58. Jose Quintana – solid pitcher; will get enough run support to get wins?
59. Carlos Torres – quietly posted a 3.44 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with a 21% strikeout rate;
60. Lance Lynn – it’s starting to look as though Lynn should be a reliever because it seems he cannot handle a starting pitchers workload; would be an excellent 2-3 inning reliever if he played in a different era.
61. David Phelps – got a little unlucky with the BABIP (.321); will be prone to big innings if his walk rate stays a tick above 9%
62. Jarrod Parker – will be over hyped in drafts, but I’ve seen all of his starts and he’s a pitch to contact guy who relies on his defense; I’ll admit a lot of the contact he generates is weak contact, but with a 16% strikeout rate I will let someone else draft him.
63. Jon Niese – I bet people look at his 1.44 WHIP and quickly chop his 3.71 ERA as a regression candidate; however, after coming off the DL with a neck injury he posted a 3.00 ERA, 1.24 WHIP with a 20.6% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate;
64. Scott Feldman – solid pitcher who won’t hurt you in any category; could have 14+ wins he stays on the Orioles all year.
65. Dillion Gee – in his last 18 starts he had a 3.00 ERA, 1.18 WHIP with a 14.8% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate; Gee is a perfect candidate for a pitching staff with players like David Phelps or other high WHIP pitchers.
66. Hector Santiago – see Jose Quintana; in all seriousness, he walked 11% of the batters he faced; in order for me to draft pitchers with walk totals that high they better have elite strikeout rates (>24%).
67. Jake Arrieta – if he can put it all together, the Cubs have a number two starter; still has major command issues.
