Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

After giving away Game 4 yesterday (with a little help from the umpires) the A’s come back home for a pivotal Game 5. The most intriguing decision A’s Manager has to make is who will start the game. He could go with either Bartolo Colon or Sonny Gray.

Amongst the fans I’ve polled everyone wants Gray to take the hump basically because he’s already mowed down the Tigers lineup. However, no one thinks about HOW he was able to shut down the Tigers. Gray is basically a two-pitch pitcher; he throws a fastball and curveball. He was able to do extremely well because the Tigers hitters never saw him before and had to adjust on the fly. If they see Gray again the results of Game 2 are not likely to repeat. Now, you could say Colon is a one-pitch pitcher and I wouldn’t disagree with you. I would pick Colon not because he is a veteran and a former Cy Young winner (if you can’t tell those arguments are rubbish), but because he has not worked out of the bullpen in years while Gray is two months removed from coming out of the bullpen. It is possible Colon has a special routine that would be difficult for him to get loose in a timely fashion. If Colon struggles then bring in Gray from the bullpen. With the current state of the A’s bullpen, they’re going to have to use Gray regardless if they want to win.

The A’s bullpen is basically Dan Otero, Grant Balfour (BTW, why wasn’t he pitching in the ninth inning last night?) and Sean Doolittle. Ryan Cook has to be hurt because Game 4 was the first time he was used and he looked awful; couldn’t find the broad side of barn. I hope Melvin allows Allberto Callaspo to start at second base instead of Eric Sogard. I love Sogard’s defense, but with Justin Verlander pitching the A’s are going to need offense more than defense.

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Friday, September 20 for fantasy baseball week 25. Please be aware these are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.

Top starters

Additional Information: Gerrit Cole has gotten better in each start since his call-up and now, Cole is at the point where he is pitching as an ace. For his nine starts, Cole only had 16.6 percent strikeout rate. In his last nine starts, he has a 25.7 strikeout rate. During the first nine starts, he threw his plus-plus (on the scouting scale) fastball nearly 75 percent of the time.

However, in the last nine starts he has utilized the slider and cutter more. Cole is the best pitcher on the Pirates staff and should start game one of the NLCS (if they make it to the NLCS). Jered Weaver was scratched from his start on Friday with forearm tightness. It’s still up in the air if he will pitch again the rest of the season. And if you are running fantasy baseball week 25 lineups, my hunch is that Weaver will not pitch again because the Angels have nothing to play for, and are better off giving Weaver the offseason to prepare for next season. That said, if he starts next week, you’re starting him.

Backend starters

Additional Information: Jarrod Parker’s start on September 15 was pushed back one day due to flu like symptoms. Parker proceeded to get rocked to the tune of eight runs (seven earned) in his last start (September 16). I’m giving Parker a free pass due to the illness, but I’ll be monitoring his start on Saturday closely to wind up fantasy baseball week 25. Justin Verlander is scheduled to pitch the last day of the season against the Marlins. The Tigers should have the Central sown up by that point and the Tigers will want to setup their starting rotation for the playoffs.

Spot starters

Additional Information: Bartolo Colon’s fastball in his last start looked like the fastball he had to begin the year. Rick Procello has had an up-and-down year, but he has not pitched as poorly as his ERA would indicate, for all those keeping score in fantasy baseball week 25. With a xFIP of 3.32 and the face he’s still only 24 years old he is going to be someone I target in every draft next year.

In three major league starts (against the Tigers, Cardinals and Rays) James Paxton has been fairly effective posting a 15.7 strikeout rate and ten percent walk rate. Walks have been an issue for him this year in the minors because of his long arms and inconsistent delivery, but with a start at home against a team that has been struggling against lefties is worth a gamble.

Proceed with caution

Additional Information: If you’re looking for more information about Tanner Roark, checkout last weeks starting pitcher’s rankings. Other than pitchers missing bats, I love pitchers who do not allow free passes. Brandon McCarthy, in his last five starts (38 innings) has only walked one batter. Rounding out fantasy baseball week 25, Matt Garza in his last ten starts has a 5.51 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Normally, Garza wouldn’t be this high in the rankings, but his upside is the highest of anyone not named R.A. Dickey in this section of the rankings.

Avoid

Additional Information: More for fantasy baseball week 25, A.J. Griffin has an extremely favorable week with starts at Seattle and Los Angeles. Griffin is an extreme fly ball pitcher as he leads all starters with at least 20 starts in fly ball rate (47.8 percent). It’s also no surprise that he has also allowed the most home runs (35). In 39 percent of his starts this year he’s given up four earned runs or more. Therefore, if you start him you’ll be playing with fire with your ratios.

Lastly, your welcome America. Yordano Ventura was up-and-down in his first career start. Specifically, his command was extremely loose which put him in extremely stressful situations the entire game. If it wasn’t for the three double plays he induced, his outing would have been far worse than the box score indicated. If you read my fantasy daily for Wednesday, you would have picked up and used Todd Redmond. Redmond has one extremely tough and one favorable matchup, which is why he is this low in the rankings.

The matchups and statistical data for these fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change.

Top starters

Additional Information: In seven starts the past two years against the Tigers, Chis Sale has been average with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. If you have Sale, you’re starting him; but for those of you in a championship week, be prepared for a lackluster performance. Since the All-Star break, the Marlins have the lowest OPS in the majors, which is why I love Jordan Zimmerman and Gio Gonzalez this week. Jarrord Parker has not a lost a game since May 22; since that day, he has a 2.61 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. I’ve watched all of his starts, and he has great command of his change-up. In terms of 2014 fantasy value, it’s very possible he will be a top-20 starting pitcher in my ranks.

Backend starters

Additional Information: Before the All-Star break, Shelby Miller had a 26.4 percent strikeout rate and a 6.8 percent walk rate. After the All-Star break, his strikeout rate is 21.6 percent and walk rate is 9.3 percent. As of Friday, he’s thrown 156 innings, the most in his professional career. Miller has looked fatigued in his last couple of starts, and the innings may be catching up to him. Danny Salazar, again, looked extremely effective on Friday, striking out nine batters in 3.2 innings. The Indians are trying to limit his workload so going three to five innings per start will limit his ability to earn wins, but he’s a fantastic option if you’re looking for strikeouts. David Price in his last six starts has a 4.28 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The Orioles are tied for third in the majors in OPS, and Price had a mediocre performance against the Orioles four weeks ago.

Spot starters

Additional Information: All of Jeff Samardzija’s peripherals suggest he’s been the same; his strikeout rates are the same and the walk rate is slightly up. However, his ERA 0.6 points higher than last year. With an xFIP of 3.49, I bet Samardzija will be a draft-day value in 2014. Jon Niese, in his last 13 starts, has a 2.85 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with a solid 20 percent strikeout rate and .341 BABIP. With the emergence of Zack Wheeler, Dillon Gee and if Matt Harvey successfully rehabs his elbow in the offseason, the Mets are going to have a fantastic pitching rotation. Think how good the rotation can be if Noah Syndergaard reaches his potential and jumps to the majors some time next year.

Proceed with caution

Additional Information: If you remove the horrendous start in Boston last week, Rick Porcello has a 3.17 ERA in his last 12 starts. I’ve been a Porcello apologist all year, and I’m not jumping off now during the fantasy playoffs. Tanner Roark, who was called up in August, pitched primarily out of the bullpen before pitching effectively in two starts. Roark has a low-to-mid 90s fastball and relies on command and control to generate outs, which isn’t a great recipe for fantasy success. That said, with one start against the Marlins, Roark could be a great roll of the dice. Speaking of the Marlins, Dan Haren also will face the Marlins and Braves. Last week, Haren faced the Marlins and go lit up. He’s given up 16 runs in the past 18.2 innings.

Avoid

Additional Information: Brad Peacock, an extreme fly-ball pitcher, has pitched extremely effectively in his past two starts at Oakland and at Seattle, both great ballparks for fly-ball pitchers. This week, he gets another opportunity to pitch at home, which should allow more fly balls to stay in the ballpark. The two biggest wild cards are Tim Lincecum and Dan Straily as they can provide sensational or horrendous outings. With starts against struggling offenses, either one of these pitchers could provide solid fantasy value. For the year, the Indians have the best OPS against left-handed pitchers, which is why Bruce Chen and his 3.11 ERA is this far down in the rankings.