Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

These fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings are based on statistical data pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. You can view the original post at TTFB.

Top starters

Additional Information: Cliff Lee, in his last nine starts, has quietly been very mediocre with a 4.17 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. However, the advanced statstics suggest he’s been unlucky. The walk and strikeout rates are identical compared to the beginning of the year. The ground-ball rate has increased 14.4 percent, but his BABIP, strangely, has risen from .271 to .339.

Backend starters

Additional Information: Hisashi Iwakuma, in his past 15 starts, has a 4.05 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Unlike Cliff Lee, where the underlying peripherals suggest he’s been unlucky, Iwakuma’s numbers suggest he hasn’t pitched as well. Iwakuma’s strikeout rate has decreased 22 percent and his walk rate has increased 33 percent. Speaking of another fantasy ace who’s struggling, David Price has been extremely hittable in his last five starts with a 4.78 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. However, the strikeout and walk rates have maintained for the season, with the biggest difference coming from his BABIP, which is .356 in those five starts. Clay Buchholz had another solid rehab start (he’s had three so far) for the Pawtucket Red Sox, going 3.2 innings and throwing 73 percent strikes. Buchholz has been on the DL since June 9 with a sore neck and looks as though he’ll be ready to face the Tampa Bay Rays this week. Odds are if you owned him for this long, and if you’re in the middle of a playoff race and/or on the cusp of gaining another point (in roto leagues), then it would be extremely difficult to leave him on the bench.

Spot starters

Additional Information: If you remove Zack Wheeler’s first three starts, he has a 3.00 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 20.3 percent strikeout rate and 9.5 percent walk rate. With the Mets being so bad, I would have Wheeler lower in the rankings because of the decreased likelihood of earning a win, but with a start against the Nationals and Dan Haren, Wheeler has a great opportunity to have a really solid start. To say Matt Cain has been inconsistent in 2013 would be an understatement, but the Dodgers have .696 OPS at home compared to a .750 OPS on the road. Corey Kluber was originally slated to pitch in relief on Friday, but with the injury to Justin Masterson, Kluber will assume Masterson’s spot in the rotation. I loved Kluber before he went on the DL (on August 6) with a finger sprain.

Proceed with caution

Additional Information: The Cleveland Indians have the fifth highest OPS (.750) in the majors against lefties, which is why I would be hesitant to start Hector Santiago. Since the All-Star, break Gerrit Cole has pitched better than his 3.62 ERA would indicate. He’s striking out 21 percent of the batters he faces and is only walking five percent. Five percent may not seem that low, but that puts him in the top 10 percent of starting pitchers. I love pitchers who miss bats and do not allow free passes. Next year, if Cole is in the starting rotation to begin the year, he will most likely be top 30-35 starting pitcher for me. If you remove Ubaldo Jimenez’s first four starts of the year, he has a 2.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP with a 23.3 strikeout rate and 11.3 walk rate. With a WHIP that high, his ERA is unlikely to sustain, but he’s been extremely effective in bursts.

Avoid

Additional Information: If you’re wondering why Bartolo Colon is not on the list, it’s because his fastball velocity was still down in his last start; his max velocity was 93 mph, which is three mph less than before he went on the DL. Since July (13 starts) Lance Lynn has a 5.47 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. His .366 BABIP suggests he has been unlucky, but his BABIP has been so high because the command has been extremely loose, and he’s thrown a lot of meatballs in the middle of the plate.

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware these fantasy baseball starting pitcher matchups are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.

Top starters

Additional Information: If you remove the first two starts of the year, Cole Hamels has a 3.13 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 22.2 percent strikeout rate and 5.3 walk rate. Last year, he had a 3.05 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 24.9 strikeout rate and 6 percent walk rate. Hamels is easily a top 10-15 pitcher next year. Since the All-Star break, the Philadelphia Phillies are 29th in OPS (the Marlins are 30th). Other than the Atlanta Braves, stream pitchers facing the NL East. Since 2008, Homer Bailey’s ERA has decreased year over year. If Bailey’s ERA stays in the 3.40-3.70 range he’ll most likely be a great value in drafts in 2014.

Backend starters

Additional Information: Since being acquired by the Padres, Eric Stults, in 20 home starts, has a 2.89 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. I keep writing about him every week because he’s still only owned in 67 percent of NFBC leagues. Since being acquired by the Texas Rangers, Matt Garza has pitched fairly well with a 4.44 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. What’s the most promising is he’s reduced his walk rate from 6.8 percent to 5 percent and is throwing more strikes (five percentage points more). Since coming off the DL in May, Ivan Nova has the sixth-lowest ERA (2.47) among starters with at least 10 starts; Jarrord Parker is seventh with 2.48. Despite both pitchers having tough matchups, I would feel confident starting them.

Spot starters

Additional Information: In the last seven starts before going on the DL, Matt Moore looked like he was turning the corner. His walk rate went from 12 percent to 9.3 percent, and his strikeout rate increased five percentage points (to 25.8 percent). That said, Moore’s performance this year has been extremely inconsistent, so fantasy owners in weekly leagues have an extremely tough decision. I own Moore in my most important (weekly) league and I’m rolling the dice with him. Currently, Tyler Chatwood is expected to start on Sunday against the Red, and if his stuff looks sharp, he’s another great streaming candidate with a start in San Diego. Even if the stuff isn’t so sharp, he’ll be able to get away with more mistakes in that ballpark. Since the All-Star break, the Yankees and Mets are 22nd and 23rd, respectively, in the majors in OPS. You can stream pitchers against these offenses.

Proceed with caution

Additional Information: Since the All-Star break, R.A. Dickey has been extremely effective. His walk rate has decreased two percentage points (to 6.6 percent) and his strikeout rate has increased nearly six percentage points (to 22.4 percent). In 2014, Dickey will most likely be one of sleepers in 2014 because I think the market will overlook and undervalue him. A.J. Griffin has a great matchup against the Astros, but Griffin isn’t very good. He leads the majors in home runs allowed (32) despite pitching in of the best pitchers parks and pitcher-friendly divisions. Taijuan Walker made his debut Friday night against the Astros and he got better as the game progressed. His fastball sat 93-94 and touched 97 mph a couple of times; the pitch had good arm-side run that bored in on right-handed hitters. His best secondary pitch was the cutter, which had good arm-side run. He threw a couple of show-me curveballs and change ups. If he can develop some consistency with the curveball and change-up he will be extremely good. With an approximate 160 innings cap, Walker may only have one more start the rest of the year, so fantasy owners should use all their FAAB trying to acquire him.

Avoid

Additional Information: Roy Halladay did not make my top 101 because his stuff looked depressed and hittable; his fastball sat 87-88 mph. Also, his command was off as evidenced by the two hit batsman. It seems like every week I have Jason Vargas in the mid-to-late 80s as a shot-in-the-dark start. In the last two seasons, Vargas has had a game ERA above five if 29 percent of the time. This week with two starts at home, Vargas has an opportunity to provide two quality starts for fantasy owners. Bartolo Colon’s fastball, in his first start off the DL, averaged 89.5 mph and maxed out at 93.4 mph. Prior to going on the DL, he was throwing the fastball with much more velocity, touching 96 mph at times. Colon relies on the fastball more than any starting pitcher in league, and if his fastball doesn’t have the same giddyup, then Colon isn’t startable.

Last night Brett Anderson made his first appearance since coming off the DL with a right ankle sprain. He went three innings and gave up three runs, two hits, zero walks and only one strikeout. My impressions are his stuff looked pretty good, especially the slider, his primary secondary offering. He threw mostly fastballs and sliders and mixed in 2-3 curveballs and changeups as well. The command of the fastball was loose at times, missing up in the zone, but that’s expected since he was on the DL for four months. A’s manager Bob Melvin said the plan is to have Anderson work extensively in the bullpen, but any time fringe 4-5 pitchers like A.J. Griffin, Tommy Milone and Dan Straily are in a rotation means Anderson could enter the rotation at any moment. Side note- Milone was sent down, but he will surely be back up when rosters expand on Sunday.

If I were to speculate what will happen with Anderson the rest of the regular I would say there are scenarios. One is he enters the rotation in two weeks or he becomes the seventh-eighth inning reliever, supplanting Sean Doolittle’s role. Despite having a great rookie season and first half of the season, Doolittle has been extremely hittable since the all-star break with a .275 batting average against, 4.61 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 22.8 percent strikeout rate; his strikeout rate last year was 31.4 percent. My bold prediction is Anderson starts the wild card game if the A’s make the playoffs. If he’s available in your league he’s definitely worth taking a shot on if you can afford the roster spot.