Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.

Top Starters

Additional Information: Surprisingly, the Oakland Athletics have the 13th-lowest strikeout rate in baseball; they had the 28th highest last year. I expect Max Scherzer to have a great game, but not the 7.4 strikeouts he’s been averaging this year. Since June, Cliff Lee has a 3.90 ERA, 1.13 WHIP with a 26 percent strikeout rate and only a 3.9 percent walk rate. Other than his ERA, all his other numbers have been extremely good, and it appears his ERA is a function of bad luck as evidenced with a .315 BABIP and 16.9 percent HR/FB rate.

Backend Starters

Additional Information: At the beginning of the year, I never would’ve thought I would seriously consider ranking Zack Wheeler over Justin Verlander in a two-start week, but I stared at my computer screen for 10 minutes before I eventually went with Verlander. The big question: Is Verlander a top 10 fantasy starting pitcher next year? Probably not. Speaking of Wheeler, I’m streaming almost every pitcher who’s facing teams in the NL East not named the Atlanta Braves, which explains the Jeff Samardzija ranking as well. In his last 10 starts, longtime favorite of mine, Jordan Zimmerman has a 5.53 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 18.4 percent strikeout rate and 7.4 percent walk rate. Though 7.4 percent may not seem a lot, since 2011 he has a 5.0 percent walk rate. I would’ve ranked Zimmerman lower, but a start against the Mets is too good to pass up.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: I’ve said this in previous rankings, but it’s worth mentioning again: If you’re looking for wins, then Scott Feldman, Rick Porcello and Jake Peavy are excellent candidates for fantasy owners because they pitch for high-powered offenses that are likely to earn wins, even though they go six innings and allow three runs. Like last year, Lance Lynn was extremely dominant to begin the season, but has hit the wall. In his first eight starts, he had a 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with a 26.5 percent strikeout rate and 10.3 percent walk rate. However, in his 18 starts, he has 4.46 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 20.8 percent strikeout rate ad 8.4 percent walk rate. These numbers indicate he’s become more hittable, which he has. If you’re looking for a pitcher to not affect your ratios, then Lynn is not a good start.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: Jon Niese has a 2.62 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his last nine starts. Now, the WHIP indicates he’s been lucky with his ERA, but with two starts against the NL East, his run of good luck will continue. Despite the discrepancy in home-road splits for Eric Stults, I still love his matchup in Dodger Stadium, one of the five best pitchers parks in the majors. On Tuesday, Tony Cingrani left his start after only 3.2 innings with a lower back strain. He says he’ll be ready for his next start, but even if he does pitch, you should leave him on your bench. If you don’t believe me, ask how Francisco Liriano’s owners felt about his start in Colorado two weeks ago. Brandon McCarthy has not looked good in his first four starts back from the DL, but if you’re willing to the roll the dice, he could provide two quality starts against two bad teams; this is a total gut call on my part. R.A. Dickey in his last six starts has been very solid with a 3.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 21 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 walk rate.  Combine that with a start against the below-average Yankees lineup, you could do a lot worse this far into the list.

Avoid

Additional Information: When I’m choosing between pitchers this low on the list, I look for a reasonable strikeout rate, a low walk rate and an above-average matchup. This is why Chris Capuano leads this tier of pitchers. Since July, in eight starts, Edwin Jackson has a 3.40 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 14.1 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate. The walk and strikeout rates indicate Jackson hasn’t been as dominant, which is why he’s this far down. But at the end of the day, he’s pitching in Dodger Stadium and has the ability to miss a ton of bats when everything is working.

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.

Top Starters

Additional Information: Matt Harvey has an extremely tough matchup against Detroit, but if you own him, start him; benching him at this point in the season is getting too cute. Among starters with at least 20 starts, Hiroki Kuroda quietly (in New York of all places) has the fourth lowest ERA. Friday night the Toronto Blue Jays had Kevin Pillar and Anthony Gose in their outfield; expect another great start out of Kuroda. In his last 16 starts, Zack Greinke  has a 2.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP with a 21 percent strikeout rate and 7.2 percent walk rate. For 2014, it looks as though Grienke will be at least a top 20 fantasy starting pitcher.

Backend Starters

Additional Information: In his last seven starts, Rick Porcello  has a 2.62 ERA, 1.32 WHIP with a 51 percent ground ball rate. This week, he faces two teams in the bottom third of the majors in OPS. Anyone who’s read my previous starting pitcher rankings knows of I’ve been reluctant to buy Francisco Liriano all year, and I’ll admit I’ve been wrong. This week, he has two starts in extremely favorable matchups in San Diego and San Francisco. Since coming off the DL, A.J. Burnett has not been as good from a fantasy POV with a 3.28 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP. However, all the peripheral statistics suggests he’s been unlucky (.381 BABIP). He’s inducing ground balls at 60.5 percent rate, nearly six percentage points higher than before going on the DL. In his last 10 starts, James Shields  has been extremely hittable with a 4.38 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, eight percent walk rate and only a 15 strikeout rate. Since July he’s been relying on the fastball nearly 40 percent of the time compared to roughly 23 percent of the time. Also, during this streak, his swing-and-miss rate has gone from 23 percent to 18 percent.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: As of right now, Alexi Oganado is scheduled to start on Monday, but Jon Daniels, Rangers GM, on Friday said “it looks like it is heading in that direction” in regards to Oganado possibly missing the start on Monday due to shoulder soreness. According to one scout, Nathan Eovaldi “might have the best fastball I have seen all year.” In the preseason, I didn’t like Eovaldi as a viable starting pitcher option because of his inability to get left-handed hitters out; last year they hit .318 against him. The reason he was unable to get lefties out was the lack of a quality change-up or curveball. To his credit he’s made strides against lefties, only limiting them to a .165 batting average. However, he’s generating those outs exclusively with his fastball. He’s throwing the fastball 76 percent of the time; last year it was only 63 percent of the time. I’m not convinced this trend against lefties is going to continue, and I see Eovaldi as top-five closer in 2015. Alex Cobb looked a little rusty in his first start back from the DL against the Mariners. Preferably, Cobb owners should be on the bench this week against one of the best offenses in the majors.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: Bartolo Colon has looked bad in his last two starts, giving up 10 earned runs in 6.2 innings. What’s most concerning is his fastball velocity. In his last two starts, his fastball averaged 87 mph, three mph less than it has been averaging prior. Also, his max velocity was down four mph (92 mph). He throws the fastball 84 percent of the time, by far the most of any starting pitcher in the majors. He has a start on Sunday. If his velocity is still in the mid-80s, I’m not starting him. In his last eight starts, Zack Wheeler  has a 2.87 ERA, 1.34 WHIP with a 22 percent strikeout rate and 9.5 percent walk rate. Even though these numbers are impressive, only three of those starts have come against teams with a winning record. Since joining the Cubs, Jake Arrieta has looked like a different pitcher, only allowing one earned run and a .095 batting average against in 13 innings. The biggest adjustment I’ve noticed is he’s incorporating his two-seam fastball/power sinker more often. This adjustment has turned him into a ground ball machine with a ground ball rate of 48.5 percent; that would put him 23rd among starting pitchers.

Avoid

Additional Information: If you’re looking for strikeouts and can take a hit to your ERA and WHIP, then Ethan Marin could be a viable option. Martin has electric stuff with a fastball thrown in the low-mid 90s and plus change-up and slider. His biggest weakness has been the lack of command: 13.6 percent walk rate in triple-a and 11.4 percent walk rate in the majors. Jason Vargas has a career 3.36 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at Safeco Field. If you’re for a pitcher to not hurt your ratios, Vargas could be a sneaky option. Danny Duffy was effectively wild on Friday against the Detroit Tigers. In two starts he has a strikeout rate of 24.4 percent and batters are only hitting .200 against him. For some reason, the Royals are still committed to Wade Davis as a starter, which is why Duffy isn’t scheduled to start this upcoming week. It’s obvious that Davis does not have the stuff to turn over a lineup two, three and four times and should be put back in the bullpen. Come on Royals management, you have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs, don’t squander it by trying to prove that Wil Myers deals was a good trade.

Yesterday Sonny Gray dominated the Houston Astros, striking out nine in eight innings yesterday in Oakland. In 18 innings he has 20 strikeouts and only five walks. Gray began the year in triple-a, playing in an hitter’s friendly league league, but a pitcher friendly ballpark. In triple-a he had a 24 percent strikeout rate and a eight percent walk rate along with a 3.42 ERA.

Gray features a mid 90s fastball and has touched 96 mph (in the majors) … he’s touched higher in the minors. His best secondary pitch is the 12-to-6 power curveball that is a legit bat misser; in the preseason Jason Parks at Baseball Prospectus said the curveball was at least a plus pitch and could be better. Having plus fastball and plus curveball is a great starter kit for a solid number three starter, but I have my reservations. Even though his fastball has plus velocity, his command can be loose at times and can be very straight, which is a recipe for a disaster for starting pitchers. Also, he’s basically a two pitcher; he’s thrown the fastball and curveball 89 percent of the time. He also throws a changeup and slider, but either of them haven’t been more than a show me pitch. If he’s going to stay in the rotation long term he’s going to need to find a third pitch.

Based on all that, Sonny Gray is a must own in every format. I think he’s going to stay in the rotation because Brett Anderson is going into the bullpen and Tommy Milone is finally pitching in triple-a. He pitches in a great pitchers park and the A’s will only play seven games (out of 27) against teams with a record better than .500 in September so he’ll have a great opportunity to earn wins or at least have favorable matchups the rest of the year. Based on his repertoire of pitches he’s not going to maintain a 28.6 percent strikeout rate, but he should be able to around the 20-22 percent mark, the minimum needed to be a solid fantasy starter the rest of 2013. For owners in dynasty formats, Gray will be in the rotation, behind Jarrod Parker, Dan Staily, A.J. Griffin and maybe Brett Anderson. Gray’s fantasy upside is a top 40 starting pitcher, but he’s most likely going to be a streaming option.