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Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings: Week 19

by Matt Commins Posted on August 11, 2013

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.

Top Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
1	Yu Darvish	TEX	SEA, @HOU	2.72	32.7%	8.5%
2	Adam Wainwright	STL	@CHC, PIT	2.66	22.6%	3.0%
3	Max Scherzer	DET	KC, @CWS	2.84	28.9%	5.8%
4	Madison Bumgarner	SF	@MIA, @WSH	2.75	24.7%	7.4%
5	Chris Sale	CWS	@MIN, DET	2.77	26.6%	5.8%
6	Cole Hamels	PHI	LAD, @ATL	3.81	21.1%	6.2%
7	Doug Fister	DET	KC, @CWS	3.50	18.4%	4.2%
8	Homer Bailey	CIN	@MIL, @CHC	3.73	24.2%	5.4%
9	Julio Teheran	ATL	WSH, PHI	2.96	21.3%	5.3%
10	Mat Latos	CIN	@MIL, @CHC	3.21	23.3%	7.4%
11	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	@BOS, LAA	2.45	17.7%	4.8%
12	Gio Gonzalez	WSH	@ATL, SF	3.52	24.4%	9.3%
13	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	@PHI	1.91	25.0%	5.6%
14	Matt Harvey	NYM	@LAD	2.09	29.3%	4.8%
15	Jered Weaver	LAA	@NYY	2.90	18.7%	5.8%
16	David Price	TB	SEA	3.37	19.1%	3.2%
17	Stephen Strasburg	WSH	@ATL	3.02	25.7%	7.6%
18	Cliff Lee	PHI	LAD	3.13	23.4%	4.0%
19	Felix Hernandez	SEA	@TEX	2.39	25.7%	4.9%
20	Mike Minor	ATL	WSH	2.76	23.1%	5.2%
21	Jose Fernandez	MIA	@KC	2.58	27.0%	8.9%
22	Justin Verlander	DET	KC-2	3.74	22.4%	8.6%
23	Ervin Santana	KC	MIA	2.97	19.1%	5.4%
24	Shelby Miller	STL	PIT	2.89	26.8%	7.1%

Additional Information: Cole Hamels has quietly been extremely effective. In his past 12 starts, he has a 2.85 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 21.6 percent strikeout rate and 4.6 percent walk rate. The Washington Nationals have the lowest OPS against left-handed pitching in the majors (.643 OPS), which bodes well for Mike Minor owners this week. According to the St. Louis Post Dispatch Shelby Miller is healing nicely and will most likely be ready to make his scheduled start against the Pirates. After a rough patch in June, Miller has returned to form with a 2.78 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 24.2 percent strike out rate.

Backend Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
25	Danny Salazar	CLE	@OAK, @MIN	3.28	33.3%	3.9%
26	Bartolo Colon	OAK	CLE, HOU	2.75	13.3%	4.0%
27	Scott Feldman	BAL	COL, @ARI	4.10	16.9%	6.6%
28	Matt Cain	SF	@MIA	4.47	22.2%	7.7%
29	Anibal Sanchez	DET	KC	2.58	27.0%	7.6%
30	A.J. Burnett	PIT	ARI	2.73	26.2%	8.9%
31	Jordan Zimmermann	WSH	SF	3.10	18.6%	4.7%
32	Matt Garza	TEX	MIL	3.09	19.0%	5.8%
33	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	NYM	2.99	20.3%	7.2%
34	C.J. Wilson	LAA	@NYY	3.49	21.6%	8.7%
35	Lance Lynn	STL	PIT	3.78	22.4%	8.3%
36	Derek Holland	TEX	SEA	3.02	22.6%	6.8%
37	John Lackey	BOS	NYY	3.21	22.5%	5.2%
38	Zack Greinke	LAD	@PHI	3.40	18.6%	6.9%
39	Joe Kelly	STL	@CHC	2.99	16.3%	8.5%
40	Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	@TB	2.75	21.8%	4.4%
41	Rick Porcello	DET	@CWS	4.28	17.0%	4.8%
42	Jarrod Parker	OAK	HOU	4.02	15.6%	8.5%
43	Alex Wood	ATL	WSH	3.21	25.9%	8.2%
44	Jake Peavy	BOS	@TOR	4.14	22.1%	5.1%
45	James Shields	KC	@DET-2	3.36	19.6%	7.3%

Additional Information: Danny Salazar has electric stuff. His fastball sits in the mid 90s and can touch 100 mph. Most importantly, according to Jason Parks at Baseball Prospectus, Salazar can “dial it up and dial it down, depending on the situation,” which indicates he’s a pitcher and not a thrower. Salazar features a change-up and slider to go along with his near elite fastball. The change-up is the better secondary pitch right now, but both pitches are good enough to keep batters from sitting on the fastball. He should be owned in all formats. Interesting factoid: Jarrod Parker has not lost a game since May 22. In his last 10 starts, Derek Holland has a 2.92 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 22.1 percent strikeout rate and 7.5 percent walk rate. If Holland can reduce his walk rate two or three percentage points, he can be a top 10 starting pitcher.

Spot Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
46	Ivan Nova	NYY	LAA	3.08	21.8%	6.8%
47	Ricky Nolasco	LAD	@PHI, NYM	3.65	19.2%	5.9%
48	Tony Cingrani	CIN	@MIL	3.05	29.0%	10.4%
49	Chris Archer	TB	TOR, SEA	2.71	16.9%	9.4%
50	Francisco Liriano	PIT	@STL	2.02	24.2%	9.6%
51	Jeff Samardzija	CHC	CIN	4.23	24.0%	9.0%
52	Ryan Dempster	BOS	NYY, @TOR	4.67	21.2%	10.3%
53	Felix Doubront	BOS	NYY	3.56	21.1%	9.6%
54	Chris Tillman	BAL	@ARI	3.89	18.8%	8.6%
55	Jeremy Hefner	NYM	@SD	4.22	17.6%	6.1%
56	Wei-Yin Chen	BAL	COL	2.95	15.5%	6.4%
57	Kris Medlen	ATL	PHI	3.85	18.1%	6.0%
58	Brandon Beachy	ATL	PHI	9.00	12.5%	4.2%
59	Dillon Gee	NYM	@LAD	3.82	17.0%	6.2%
60	Alexi Ogando	TEX	MIL	3.28	16.3%	9.9%
61	Wade Miley	ARI	@PIT, BAL	3.56	17.9%	8.3%
62	Kyle Lohse	MIL	CIN	3.23	15.2%	3.9%
63	Bud Norris	BAL	COL	3.78	17.5%	8.0%
64	Brandon McCarthy	ARI	@PIT	4.94	14.1%	4.2%
65	Mike Leake	CIN	@MIL	2.94	14.8%	5.9%

Additional Information: Since coming off the DL, Ivan Nova has a 2.04 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 23.6 percent strikeout rate and 6.4 walk rate in eight starts. What’s remarkable is he’s put these numbers up against the Orioles twice, Tigers, Rangers and the Tampa Rays twice. If Nova has another strong start, he’s a possible top 20 starting pitcher moving forward. There are 26 pitchers with at least 13 starts and an ERA under three. One of those pitchers is Wei-Yin Chen. Chen has a great matchup with the Rockies this week, but his ERA is a mirage as he doesn’t miss enough bats to maintain a 79 percent LOB (left on-base) rate. In his last 13 starts, Jeff Samardzija has a 5.47 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. With a .364 BABIP suggests he’s been extremely unlucky during this stretch, but overall his command has not been as sharp as it was at the beginning of the year.

Proceed With Caution

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
69	Patrick Corbin	ARI	BAL	2.34	20.7%	6.1%
70	Travis Wood	CHC	STL, CIN	3.04	17.7%	8.5%
71	CC Sabathia	NYY	@BOS, LAA	4.73	19.5%	5.6%
72	Jose Quintana	CWS	@MIN	3.51	18.9%	6.9%
73	Zack Wheeler	NYM	@SD	3.73	18.3%	12.5%
74	Jeff Locke	PIT	ARI	2.47	18.1%	11.3%
75	Gerrit Cole	PIT	@STL	3.95	17.7%	5.7%
76	A.J. Griffin	OAK	CLE	3.91	19.6%	5.3%
77	Jacob Turner	MIA	@KC	2.68	16.2%	7.9%
78	Eric Stults	SD	NYM, @COL	3.50	15.4%	4.8%
79	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	@CHC	3.62	13.3%	4.3%
80	Wily Peralta	MIL	CIN	4.42	15.0%	9.0%
81	Samuel Deduno	MIN	CWS, CLE	3.38	13.5%	8.9%
82	Jon Lester	BOS	@TOR	4.37	20.1%	7.6%
83	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	TOR	4.77	18.9%	6.4%
84	Zeke Spruill	ARI	@PIT	6.51	21.1%	7.9%
85	Hector Santiago	CWS	@MIN, DET	3.43	24.1%	10.6%
86	Phil Hughes	NYY	LAA	4.86	19.0%	6.9%
87	Roberto Hernandez	TB	SEA	4.75	17.3%	5.2%

Additional Information: Eric Stults is an extremely difficult decision for fantasy owners in weekly leagues. At home this year, he has a 2.37 ERA and 0.93 WHIP while on the road he has a 4.64 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. In his last five starts, Jeff Locke has a 3.38 ERA despite a 1.57 WHIP and 13.2 walk rate. Eventually, Locke’s luck is going to run out. Gerrit Cole has a strikeout rate of 22 percent and a 6.7 percent walk rate; that’s a profile of a back-of-the-rotation fantasy starter. On paper, it looks like a tough matchup against the Cardinals, but since the All-Star Break, the Cardinals offense has struggled; they are only 19th in the majors in OPS.

Avoid

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
88	Dan Haren	WSH	SF	5.14	19.4%	4.1%
89	Bruce Chen	KC	@DET, MIA	1.79	17.8%	6.4%
90	Dan Straily	OAK	CLE, @TOR	4.41	19.0%	7.4%
91	Danny Duffy	KC	@DET-2	4.86	36.8%	10.5%
92	Randall Delgado	ARI	BAL	3.48	18.0%	4.5%
93	Ian Kennedy	SD	NYM	5.13	19.9%	9.1%
94	Tim Lincecum	SF	@WSH	4.18	25.1%	8.9%
95	Henderson Alvarez	MIA	SF	2.80	12.8%	5.6%
96	Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	@OAK	4.18	21.5%	12.1%
97	R.A. Dickey	TOR	@TB	4.49	17.6%	8.0%
98	Ryan Vogelsong	SF	@WSH	7.19	16.4%	7.4%
99	Scott Kazmir	CLE	@MIN	3.89	20.9%	7.7%
100	Charlie Morton	PIT	ARI, @STL	3.88	17.9%	5.0%
101	Erasmo Ramirez	SEA	@TEX	7.26	18.7%	7.5%

Additional Information: I never thought I would ever rate Bruce Chen ahead of Tim Lincecum in any type of starting pitcher rankings, but it honestly wasn’t even close. I’ve always been a believer in Danny Duffy and it looks as though his stuff is almost back, especially his fastball velocity. He should be owned in all formats. In his last six starts, Dan Haren has a 2.43 ERA, 0.92 WHIP. 26.9 percent strikeout rate and 5.5 walk rate. I’m still not a believer, but he’s a sneaky stream option against of the worst offenses in the majors in the Giants.

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Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings: Week 18

by Matt Commins Posted on August 4, 2013

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Friday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. You can find the original post at TTFB.

Top Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	@STL, TB	1.87	25.1%	5.5%
2	Adam Wainwright	STL	LAD, CHC	2.61	22.8%	2.9%
3	Mike Minor	ATL	@WSH, MIA	2.75	23.6%	4.9%
4	Stephen Strasburg	WSH	ATL, PHI	3.04	25.4%	7.8%
5	Chris Sale	CWS	NYY, MIN	2.92	27.0%	5.4%
6	James Shields	KC	MIN, BOS	3.08	20.0%	7.3%
7	Anibal Sanchez	DET	@CLE, @NYY	2.59	26.3%	7.7%
8	Yu Darvish	TEX	@LAA	2.66	33.4%	8.4%
9	Matt Harvey	NYM	COL	2.21	29.8%	5.0%
10	Felix Hernandez	SEA	TOR	2.30	26.3%	4.6%
11	Cliff Lee	PHI	@WSH	3.05	23.1%	3.9%
12	Max Scherzer	DET	@CLE	3.01	29.8%	5.6%
13	David Price	TB	@LAD	3.57	20.5%	3.7%
14	Jered Weaver	LAA	@CLE	2.84	20.3%	6.1%
15	Jose Fernandez	MIA	@PIT	2.71	25.9%	8.8%
16	Matt Garza	TEX	@HOU	2.95	20.9%	6.6%
17	Madison Bumgarner	SF	MIL	2.76	24.5%	7.1%

Additional Information: Since June 24, Jered Weaver has the second lowest ERA in the majors (1.31) with a 23.2 percent strikeout rate and a 5.4 percent walk rate. If Yu Darvish did not go on the DL, he would currently be on pace for 300+ strikeouts. Clayton Kershaw is most likely to be the number-one pitcher entering the 2014 season, but Darvish will be a close second. Since coming off the DL, David Price has a 1.68 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP. Most importantly his fastball is averaging 94 mph and has topped out at 96.8 mph.

Backend Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
18	Justin Verlander	DET	@CLE, @NYY	3.88	22.3%	9.0%
19	John Lackey	BOS	@HOU, @KC	3.23	21.7%	5.0%
20	Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	TOR, MIL	2.76	22.5%	4.1%
21	Joe Kelly	STL	LAD, CHC	3.10	17.2%	8.4%
22	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	@CWS	2.38	17.9%	4.9%
23	Shelby Miller	STL	LAD	2.79	26.4%	6.8%
24	Homer Bailey	CIN	OAK	3.56	24.7%	5.5%
25	Derek Holland	TEX	@HOU	3.18	22.0%	6.8%
26	Jake Peavy	BOS	@KC	4.28	23.5%	5.2%
27	Jordan Zimmermann	WSH	ATL	3.19	18.4%	4.1%
28	Bartolo Colon	OAK	@CIN	2.50	13.3%	3.6%
29	Julio Teheran	ATL	@WSH	3.02	21.5%	5.1%
30	Doug Fister	DET	@CLE	3.67	18.3%	4.2%
31	Cole Hamels	PHI	CHC	3.87	21.5%	6.4%
32	Mat Latos	CIN	OAK	3.37	24.0%	7.3%
33	Kris Medlen	ATL	@WSH	3.74	17.2%	6.2%
34	Wade Miley	ARI	TB	3.67	17.8%	8.3%
35	Jeff Samardzija	CHC	@STL	3.75	24.1%	8.9%
36	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	@STL	3.14	19.8%	7.9%
37	Zack Greinke	LAD	TB	3.43	18.9%	7.2%
38	Chris Archer	TB	@ARI	2.39	17.3%	9.2%
39	C.J. Wilson	LAA	@CLE	3.48	21.6%	9.1%

Additional Information: Since joining the rotation, Joe Kelly has 3.10 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and a 17.2 percent strikeout rate and 8.4 walk rate. Only averaging 5.2 innings per start limits his ability to earn wins, but he’s a great option to enhance your ratios. Chris Archer has been nothing less of amazing in his last six starts: 1.29 ERA, 0.76 WHIP with a 16 percent strikeout rate and 6.4 percent walk rate. Of the six starts, four came against the Yankees, Twins and the Astros twice. Archer has a great matchup against the Diamondbacks, but expectations should be tempered. Assuming Tigers plan to start the newly acquired Jose Iglesias starts at shortstop when Ric Porcello and Doug Fister start, their individual rankings increase at least five spots moving forward. Wade Miley in his last seven starts: 1.74 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and a 53 percent ground ball rate; this could be a return to his 2012 form.

Spot Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
40	Matt Cain	SF	MIL, BAL	4.57	22.0%	8.0%
41	Gio Gonzalez	WSH	ATL	3.57	24.7%	9.6%
42	CC Sabathia	NYY	@CWS	4.65	20.4%	5.6%
43	Rick Porcello	DET	@NYY	4.49	18.1%	5.2%
44	Scott Feldman	BAL	@SF	3.89	17.0%	6.1%
45	Dillon Gee	NYM	@ARI	4.13	17.5%	6.5%
46	Gerrit Cole	PIT	MIA	3.55	16.6%	5.4%
47	Kyle Lohse	MIL	@SEA	3.22	16.3%	4.1%
48	Lance Lynn	STL	CHC	3.87	22.8%	8.8%
49	Patrick Corbin	ARI	NYM	2.25	21.6%	6.3%
50	Ryan Dempster	BOS	@HOU, @KC	4.54	20.8%	10.8%
51	Tony Cingrani	CIN	SD	2.90	28.9%	9.6%
52	Jose Quintana	CWS	NYY, MIN	3.62	19.0%	7.1%
53	Randall Delgado	ARI	NYM	2.85	17.4%	4.6%
54	Wei-Yin Chen	BAL	@SF	2.87	15.2%	6.0%
55	Alex Wood	ATL	MIA	3.51	27.9%	8.1%
56	Brandon Beachy	ATL	MIA	17.03	25.0%	5.0%
57	Chris Tillman	BAL	@SF	3.62	19.8%	9.0%
58	Zack Wheeler	NYM	COL	3.54	18.3%	11.7%
59	Alexi Ogando	TEX	@LAA	3.05	16.9%	8.8%
60	Hector Santiago	CWS	NYY	3.33	24.4%	11.2%
61	Ervin Santana	KC	BOS	3.04	19.9%	5.4%
62	Corey Kluber	CLE	DET, LAA	3.77	23.3%	5.3%
63	Chad Gaudin	SF	MIL, BAL	2.64	20.7%	8.7%
64	Carlos Torres	NYM	@ARI	3.03	20.4%	3.6%
65	Travis Wood	CHC	@PHI	2.79	17.5%	8.1%
66	Tyler Chatwood	COL	@NYM, PIT	3.15	16.6%	7.7%
67	Brandon McCarthy	ARI	NYM	4.99	13.4%	3.4%

Additional Information: Matt Cain in his last three starts has a 1.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP with a 22 percent strikeout rate and 8.5 walk rate. If you’re a Cain owner, you have to start him, especially in a two-start week at home. The Chicago White Sox have the second lowest OPS in the majors against left handed pitching, making CC Sabathia a great start option. Dillon Gee in his past 11 starts: 2.65 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Despite the great aggregated numbers, in three of those starts, he gave up four or more earned runs. Before putting Gee in your starting lineup, be aware he’s pitching in the band box known as Chase Field. If you’re looking for a win, Chris Tillman has an excellent opportunity against the struggling San Francisco Giants. As of Friday morning, the Giants have a lower winning percentage than the New York Mets. If you held on to Brandon Beachy all year, you’re starting him this week despite one poor outing.

Proceed With Caution

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
68	Justin Masterson	CLE	DET, LAA	3.33	25.0%	9.0%
69	Jon Lester	BOS	@HOU	4.27	20.2%	8.0%
70	A.J. Burnett	PIT	@COL	2.86	26.1%	9.3%
71	Jarrod Parker	OAK	@TOR	4.07	16.0%	9.0%
72	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	SD	3.26	13.5%	4.5%
73	Andrew Cashner	SD	@CIN	3.88	16.8%	7.8%
74	Ricky Nolasco	LAD	@STL, TB	3.78	19.1%	6.0%
75	Mike Leake	CIN	SD	2.59	14.9%	5.8%
76	Jeremy Hefner	NYM	@ARI	4.21	18.2%	6.7%
77	Jacob Turner	MIA	@ATL	2.65	16.9%	8.6%
78	Bud Norris	BAL	@SD	3.89	17.4%	8.0%
79	Miguel Gonzalez	BAL	@SD	3.88	17.3%	7.6%
80	Eric Stults	SD	BAL	3.55	15.1%	4.8%
81	Francisco Liriano	PIT	@COL	2.16	25.6%	9.5%
82	Edwin Jackson	CHC	@PHI, @STL	4.65	19.1%	7.5%
83	Tyler Thornburg	MIL	@SF, @SEA	2.22	16.8%	7.9%
84	Wily Peralta	MIL	@SF, @SEA	4.57	14.6%	9.0%
85	Andy Pettitte	NYY	@CWS, DET	4.28	15.8%	5.7%

Additional Information: The Houston Astros are 17th in the majors in OPS against left-handed pitching, so Jon Lester owners shouldn’t automatically pencil in Lester in their starting lineup. Odds are if you’re a Francisco Liriano owner, you’ve received ace-level productivity for the year. All year, I’ve underrated Liriano and I’m doing so again with a start in Colorado. Despite eight consecutive starts allowing two earned runs or less, Jeremy Hefner has allowed 16 runs in his last 11.2 innings. Hefner has suffered from bad luck, specifically a 23.5 percent HR/FB rate and .390 BABIP. If you’re looking for a streaming option and can stomach risk, Hefner is a solid option. Edwin Jackson in his last five starts: 1.83 ERA and 0.87 WHIP and has only walked six batters in 34.1 innings. If Jackson was only starting against the Phillies, he would be in the low 60s, but a start at St. Louis worries me.

Avoid

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
86	Felix Doubront	BOS	@KC	3.77	21.1%	10.1%
87	Roberto Hernandez	TB	@LAD	4.71	17.6%	5.2%
88	Erasmo Ramirez	SEA	MIL	7.73	18.2%	10.4%
89	Jhoulys Chacin	COL	@NYM	3.54	14.6%	7.1%
90	Henderson Alvarez	MIA	@PIT, @ATL	2.61	11.2%	6.6%
91	Jeff Locke	PIT	MIA, @COL	2.36	18.3%	11.3%
92	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	@ARI, @LAD	4.60	19.4%	6.1%
93	R.A. Dickey	TOR	@SEA, OAK	4.66	17.7%	8.1%
94	Ivan Nova	NYY	DET	3.41	23.5%	7.8%
95	John Danks	CWS	MIN-2	4.57	16.3%	3.8%
96	Samuel Deduno	MIN	@KC	3.18	13.2%	8.8%
97	Dan Straily	OAK	@CIN	4.41	19.1%	7.4%
98	A.J. Griffin	OAK	@TOR	3.90	19.3%	5.4%
99	Mark Buehrle	TOR	OAK	4.27	15.6%	5.9%
100	Tom Gorzelanny	MIL	@SF	2.83	23.4%	9.4%
101	Donovan Hand	MIL	@SF	3.56	12.4%	5.1%

Additional Information: Roberto Hernandez is an enigma. A typical start usually consists of five brilliant innings and one blow-up inning. With Matt Moore going on the DL, gives Hernandez another 2-3 starts before he’s pushed into the bullpen. One of those starts is in the pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, which provides an opportunity for a great start. Since coming off the DL, Ivan Nova has a 2.49 ERA, 1.06 WHIP with a 23 percent strikeout rate (in six starts), but the fear of a blow-up start is too high. Despite the poor results, I’m still a believer in Erasmo Ramirez. Even though his walk rate is double what it was last year, I’m putting more emphasis in the 2012 numbers than 2013 numbers.

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Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings: Week 17

by Matt Commins Posted on July 27, 2013

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.

Top Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
1	Ervin Santana	KC	@MIN, @NYM	3.06	19.3%	5.4%
2	A.J. Burnett	PIT	STL-2, COL	2.95	25.7%	9.2%
3	David Price	TB	@BOS, SF	3.75	19.7%	3.9%
4	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	@CHC	1.97	25.4%	5.7%
5	Matt Harvey	NYM	@MIA	2.11	29.6%	5.2%
6	Adam Wainwright	STL	@PIT	2.50	22.9%	2.8%
7	Cliff Lee	PHI	ATL	3.05	23.1%	3.9%
8	Yu Darvish	TEX	ARI	2.86	31.8%	8.5%
9	Max Scherzer	DET	CWS	3.14	29.5%	5.8%
10	Jose Fernandez	MIA	CLE	2.74	24.7%	9.3%
11	Homer Bailey	CIN	@SD	3.77	24.8%	5.7%
12	Chris Sale	CWS	@CLE	2.81	27.7%	5.8%
13	James Shields	KC	@MIN	3.09	20.3%	6.9%
14	Zack Greinke	LAD	NYY	3.49	18.4%	7.6%
15	Felix Hernandez	SEA	@BOS	2.34	26.2%	4.5%
16	Stephen Strasburg	WSH	@DET	2.85	25.5%	7.6%
17	Shelby Miller	STL	@CIN	2.76	26.5%	6.7%
18	Madison Bumgarner	SF	@TB	2.93	24.7%	7.1%

Additional Information: Since June 1, Jose Fernandez quietly has been one of the best pitchers in baseball with the second lowest ERA in the majors (1.82 ERA) and a 26 percent strikeout rate. Speaking of June 1, the New York Yankees have the second fewest home runs in the majors (25), nine less the Miami Marlins. The trade for Alfonso Soriano will help add power to the lineup, but his .284 OBP will not greatly improve the offense. Therefore, Zack Greinke is a must start in all formats. The Tampa Rays are playing great baseball in the majors and the San Francisco Giants are clearly struggling and should be sellers at the trade deadline. Madison Bumgarner pitches a great game, but will earn a win.

Backend Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
19	Matt Garza	TEX	LAA, @OAK	2.87	20.9%	6.3%
20	Jered Weaver	LAA	@TEX, TOR	2.97	20.1%	6.3%
21	Jeff Samardzija	CHC	MIL, LAD	3.94	24.0%	9.0%
22	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	@LAD	2.51	17.2%	4.9%
23	Anibal Sanchez	DET	WSH	2.68	27.7%	7.7%
24	Mat Latos	CIN	@SD	3.39	24.0%	7.2%
25	Mike Minor	ATL	COL	2.89	23.5%	5.1%
26	Matt Moore	TB	SF	3.17	23.0%	11.5%
27	Cole Hamels	PHI	SF	4.09	21.8%	6.6%
28	Jordan Zimmermann	WSH	@MIL	3.19	18.4%	4.1%
29	Doug Fister	DET	CWS	3.67	18.3%	4.2%
30	Tyler Chatwood	COL	@ATL	2.48	17.2%	7.8%
31	Andrew Cashner	SD	NYY	3.85	16.7%	7.1%
32	Bartolo Colon	OAK	TOR	2.54	13.8%	3.2%
33	Justin Verlander	DET	WSH	3.99	22.2%	8.6%
34	Julio Teheran	ATL	COL	3.25	20.1%	5.0%
35	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	@CHC	3.25	18.9%	8.1%
36	Brandon Workman	BOS	SEA	4.41	22.8%	5.3%
37	Gio Gonzalez	WSH	@DET	2.97	25.2%	9.8%

Additional Information: I have no idea why Tyler Chatwood is only owned in 27 percent of ESPN leagues. His stuff isn’t good enough to sustain a 2.48 ERA, but it’s definitely good enough to be a 3.20 ERA. This week Chatwood faces the Braves and their second highest strikeout rate in the majors (22.6 percent). Not only does Matt Moore have a great pitching matchup this week, he has a 1.01 ERA and .084 WHIP in his last five starts. The command of the changeup, his third pitch, has been outstanding; the strikeout rate and swing and miss rate are is 42 percent and 31 percent higher respectively. Despite having a 5.63 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his last eight starts I’m still a believer in Jordan Zimmerman. With a walk rate of only 5 percent, a strikeout rate of 21.6 percent and a BABIP of .331 suggests he’s been unlucky. The Detroit Tigers have the third best OPS in the majors against left handed pitching. Gio Gonzalez has pitched great, but I have doubts that he’s a must-start … especially with a nearly 10 percent walk rate.

Spot Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
38	Derek Holland	TEX	LAA, @OAK	3.06	22.0%	6.8%
39	Chris Tillman	BAL	HOU	3.62	19.8%	9.0%
40	Chris Archer	TB	ARI	2.76	16.9%	10.3%
41	Corey Kluber	CLE	CWS	3.74	23.7%	5.7%
42	Gerrit Cole	PIT	COL	3.51	14.8%	5.1%
43	C.J. Wilson	LAA	@TEX, TOR	3.18	21.5%	9.0%
44	John Lackey	BOS	SEA, ARI	3.19	21.7%	5.1%
45	Lance Lynn	STL	@PIT-2, @CIN	3.98	22.4%	8.8%
46	Jake Peavy	CWS	@CLE, @DET	4.28	23.5%	5.2%
47	Matt Cain	SF	@PHI	4.79	22.0%	8.1%
48	Brandon Beachy	ATL	COL, @PHI	–	–	–
49	Francisco Liriano	PIT	STL, COL	2.23	25.2%	9.6%
50	Scott Feldman	BAL	SEA	3.75	17.6%	6.0%
51	Phil Hughes	NYY	@SD	4.33	19.6%	6.4%
52	Ivan Nova	NYY	@SD	3.66	23.1%	7.6%
53	Kris Medlen	ATL	@PHI	3.78	17.2%	6.3%
54	Eric Stults	SD	CIN	3.65	15.1%	5.1%
55	Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	@BOS	2.87	22.9%	3.9%
56	Joe Kelly	STL	@PIT	3.88	18.2%	7.2%
57	CC Sabathia	NYY	@SD	4.65	20.4%	5.6%
58	Alexi Ogando	TEX	@OAK	3.13	17.9%	8.8%

Additional Information: in July (21 games) the Colorado Rockies have the lowest OPS in the majors. What makes that statistic so surgprising is they’ve played a little more than half of the games in Coors Field. The Rockies offense is struggling, which is a great opportunity for Gerrit Cole to have a big day. It looks as though Jake Peavy will be traded before the trade deadline, which means he may miss his start against the Tigers, making him almost a must start. Eric Stults has a 2.45 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home. Stults is a must-start any time he pitches at PETCO Park. Since June 1, CC Sabathia has a 5.78 ERA and 1.34 WHIP (in 10 starts). If he wasn’t pitching in PETCO I would have him in the 70s. Hisashi Iwakuma in last eight starts has a 4.96 ERA and 1.20 WHIP and now faces the highest scoring offense in the majors in Boston.

Proceed With Caution

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
59	Kyle Lohse	MIL	@CHC, WSH	3.37	16.0%	3.7%
60	Ricky Nolasco	LAD	NYY, @CHC	3.73	18.8%	6.0%
61	Alex Wood	ATL	COL, @PHI	3.42	27.9%	9.0%
62	Michael Wacha	STL	@PIT	4.58	19.2%	5.5%
63	Mike Leake	CIN	@SD, STL	2.73	14.7%	5.7%
64	Ryan Dempster	BOS	SEA	4.28	21.1%	10.5%
65	Dillon Gee	NYM	@MIA	4.07	18.0%	6.8%
66	Justin Masterson	CLE	CWS	3.61	24.8%	9.2%
67	Juan Nicasio	COL	@ATL, @PIT	4.40	16.4%	7.9%
68	Jorge De La Rosa	COL	@ATL, @PIT	2.97	16.7%	8.5%
69	Travis Wood	CHC	LAD	2.95	17.2%	7.8%
70	Tony Cingrani	CIN	STL	3.18	27.3%	10.0%
71	Rick Porcello	DET	CWS	4.49	18.5%	5.0%
72	Jarred Cosart	HOU	@MIN	0.60	11.1%	11.1%
73	Patrick Corbin	ARI	@BOS	2.31	21.3%	6.7%
74	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	STL	3.19	14.0%	4.3%
75	Jarrod Parker	OAK	TEX	3.79	16.3%	8.0%
76	Jon Lester	BOS	ARI	4.50	19.7%	8.0%

Additional Information: Alex Wood features a low- to mid-90s fastball with a plus change-up and a knuckle curveball that can miss a ton of bats (46.7 percent strikeout rate). Despite a poor outing against the New York Mets a few days ago, Wood can miss bats and gets an opportunity to pitch against two bad teams. Don’t be fooled by the 0.60 ERA from Jarred Cosart. He pitches for a bad team, which means it will be hard to earn wins. Combine that with a .214 BABIP, a regression is coming for Cosart. Patrick Corbin has been one of the luckiest pitcher this year with a .246 BABIP, 7.5 percent HR/FB rate and 82.1 percent LOB%. Sell high. Jarrord Parker has not allowed more than three earned runs in his last 13 starts. Parker has not pitched nearly as well as last year, but he’s a pitcher who will not hurt your ratios, which makes him a great backend starter.

Avoid

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
77	Carlos Torres	NYM	KC	0.94	22.6%	3.5%
78	Zack Wheeler	NYM	@MIA, KC	3.72	18.1%	11.7%
79	Roberto Hernandez	TB	SF	4.92	17.6%	5.4%
80	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	ARI	4.48	19.7%	5.9%
81	Andy Pettitte	NYY	@LAD	4.39	16.1%	6.1%
82	A.J. Griffin	OAK	TOR, TEX	3.84	19.3%	5.3%
83	Esmil Rogers	TOR	@OAK, @LAA	3.74	15.8%	6.7%
84	Jeff Locke	PIT	STL	2.14	18.0%	11.6%
85	Wily Peralta	MIL	@CHC	4.54	14.3%	9.1%
86	Felix Doubront	BOS	TB, ARI	3.78	21.4%	10.0%
87	Jhoulys Chacin	COL	@PIT	3.53	14.6%	7.3%
88	Edwin Jackson	CHC	MIL	4.89	19.4%	8.0%
89	R.A. Dickey	TOR	@OAK	4.86	18.0%	8.3%
90	Sam Deduno	MIN	HOU	3.51	12.3%	8.5%
91	Kyle Gibson	MIN	HOU	5.72	12.0%	8.0%
92	Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	@MIA	4.49	21.8%	12.4%
93	Jeremy Hefner	NYM	@MIA, KC	4.17	18.3%	6.0%
94	Erasmo Ramirez	SEA	@BAL	8.74	16.0%	12.0%
95	Chad Gaudin	SF	@PHI	2.77	20.8%	9.1%
96	Dan Straily	OAK	TOR	4.44	19.7%	7.4%
97	Jacob Turner	MIA	NYM, CLE	2.49	17.1%	8.4%
98	Garrett Richards	LAA	TOR	4.65	16.4%	6.5%
99	Jose Quintana	CWS	@CLE	3.55	18.7%	7.0%
100	Tim Lincecum	SF	@TB	4.73	24.5%	9.5%
101	Nathan Eovaldi	MIA	NYM, CLE	3.54	16.3%	10.2%

Additional Information: Carlos Torres has pitched mainly in relief role this year for the Mets, but his last two appearances came as a starter. In those two starts he has a 23.4 percent strikeout rate and only a 4.3 percent walk rate. Torres features a low-90s fastball/cutter with an average curveball and change-up that can miss enough bats to be a solid streaming option, especially at home against the Royals who will be playing without Billy Butler or Eric Hosmer. I have not believed in Jeff Locke all year because he doesn’t miss enough bats and walks too many batters to maintain his 2.14 ERA. I believe his FIP of 3.83 and xFIP of 4.19 are a better numerical representation of good he is of a pitcher.

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