Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.

Top Starters

Additional information: Matt Harvey has pitched 130 innings so far this year, which leaves him about 40 innings left. The Detroit Tigers have the second highest OPS in the majors against left-handed pitchers. Cliff Lee owners should start him regardless; don’t get too cute. Even though James Shields has a 4.10 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in his last seven starts, he is still an ace facing a bad White Sox offense. After watching the Royals smash Justin Verlander on Saturday, I believe a regression to the 2011-12 version of Verlander isn’t happening. Instead, fantasy owners should expect the pre-2010 Verlander.

Backend Starters

Additional information: Matt Garza, who has a 1.24 and 1.01 WHIP in his last six starts, is scheduled to have two starts this week, but he’s on the trading block and could be traded at any time. I’m all-in on Garza for the rest of the year. In his last four starts, Shelby Miller has a 6.87 ERA and 1.86 WHIP with a 11.4 percent walk rate. Miller is no longer a must-start, but his stuff is so good that he should figure it out. Also, with 103 innings pitched this year, the Cardinals, who have playoff aspirations, are going to need him in the postseason. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals put Miller on the DL with a phantom for 2-3 weeks to limit his workload and to keep him fresh for the playoff run. In his first four starts after returning from the DL, David Price has a 1.97 ERA, 0.84 WHIP with a 0.9 percent walk rate. If Price wasn’t facing the Red Sox in Boston, Price would be a must-start. I put more weight in Doug Fister’s 3.35 FIP than the 4.02 ERA, despite allowing 23 earned runs in his past 36 innings (six starts).

Spot Starters

Additional information: As of now, Kris Medlen has two starts this week, but the rumor is the Alex Wood is going to take Medlen’s spot in the rotation sooner rather than later; he’s already been moved to the fifth spot in the Braves rotation. The Yankees offense is bad, really bad. For the year, they have the third lowest OPS in the majors. If Chris Archer is available in your league, this is a great streaming option, because in his last five starts, he has a 1.69 ERA, 0.88 with a 5.7 percent walk rate. Gerrit Cole will not have better matchups all year with starts against the Nationals and Marlins. Ervin Santana has been amazing this year, but if you can bench him, you should try to find a way. The Braves have the second highest strikeout rate in the majors, which provides a very good matchup for Zack Wheeler and his plus-plus fastball.

Proceed With Caution

Additional information: I was extremely high on Erasmo Ramirez in the preseason because he fills up the strike zone and pitches in a great ballpark that forgives mistake pitches. In his last six starts, Lance Lynn has a 6.21 ERA, 1.52 WHIP with only a 20.4 percent strikeout rate; his career strikeout rate in the majors is 24.4 percent. Last year, Lynn struggled significantly in the second half of the season, and it looks as though he is hitting the wall. If you’re looking for wins, Scott Feldman is a great candidate for the rest of the year as he plays on the second-best offense in the majors. Despite three great starts before the All-Star break, Matt Moore is still walking too many hitters (9.1 percent walk rate) and faces the fifth-highest team in OPS against left-handed pitching in the Boston Red Sox. Fantasy owners should expect one poor start and one great one.

Avoid

Additional information: Jake Peavy owners will luck out if he’s traded before his start against the Detroit Tigers. During his Saturday start, his fastball hit 93 mph multiple times, suggesting he could have sustained success the rest of the year. If you can buy low, I would. I’m not a believer that Tyler Skaggs will have sustained success the rest of the year, but with two starts against two bad offenses in a shallow pitcher class this week, it’s hard not to go with the matchup upside. Sonny Gray has shined in his brief few innings in long relief for the Athletics. If Tommy Milone continues to pitch poorly, Gray should take Milone’s spot in the starting rotation. Josh Johnson, in his last five starts has a 6.26 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. I’m staying away for the rest of the year. If you remove wins from the fantasy equation, Chris Tillman is a spot starter at best; Tillman is going to regress to his 4.95 FIP as the year progresses.

In my starting pitcher rankings for week 15 I rated Francisco Liriano 63rd overall even though he’s pitched great this season and was pitching in a very pitcher friendly ballpark. On Wednesday (July 10) I saw Liriano dominate the A’s for seven innings.

For the year he has a 2.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with nine wins in 76.2 innings (12 starts). So odds are if you own Liriano you’re incredibly happy with the results you’ve received thus far. Among starting pitchers with at least seven starts Liriano ranks tenth overall in strikeout rate (25.3 percent) and second in swing and miss rate (32.4 percent). Now his 8.9 percent walk rate may look high, but with a career 10.5 percent walk (prior to 2013) it looks as though he’s made strides to improve his command; his strike rate is the second highest it’s been in his career.

However, the question every fantasy owner has is will his performance continue? No, but I don’t believe he’s going to regress back to his career statistical levels. With a HR/FB rate of 5.6 percent, he’s going to eventually allow more home runs because I do not believe he’s solved the problem of not allowing home runs. He’s won 75 percent of starts, which isn’t going to continue. He’s on pace for 18 wins, which is high. If I had to take the over-under on 13.5 wins I would take the over … just barely. In his 12 starts this season only four of them were against teams with a record better than .500, so he’s faced a soft schedule to begin the year. What’s most important is will he able to stay healthy the rest of the season. In six professional years in baseball (Big Leagues and Minors) he’s only averaged 156 innings a year and has only qualified for the ERA title once in his career.

So my verdict is, if you own him, keep him because you probably will not find enough value in trade. I bet by the end of the year, assuming he finishes the year, he has 14 wins with a 3.40 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, which is extremely valuable.

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.

Top Starters

Additional Information: Cole Hamels is scheduled to pitch against the White Sox and Nationals, the 28th and 30th ranked offenses, respectively, in terms of OPS against lefties; fantasy owners could not get a better weekly matchup. As of now, Matt Harvey is expected to pitch next Sunday, the last game of the week before the All-Star break. If he does in fact pitch on Sunday, he will not be eligible to pitch at the All-Star Game. Since the All-Star Game is in New York (Citi Field), it makes too much sense for the Mets to not throw Harvey on Sunday and allowing him to start the game. In the last 30 days, the Yankees are 29th in the majors in OPS, making them a great streaming option.

Backend Starters

Additional Information: Matt Garza, in his last starts, is striking out nearly 24 percent of batters while only walking 6.8 percent of batters, resulting in a 0.90 ERA and WHIP. Overall, he’s maintained his strikeout rate (22 percent) compared to the last two years while reducing the usage of the slider, his best secondary pitch. Even though he’s throwing the fastball more, he’s throwing it less often for strikes (4 percent than the last two years) and is generating a lower swing-and-miss rate (15 percent less than the last two years). Combine all that with a .255 BABIP for the year, Garza has been getting lucky and isn’t this good. However, with a start against the free-swinging White Sox, Garza is a great option this week. Jose Fernandez, in his last six starts, has a 1.34 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. With Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison in the lineup, the Marlins are scoring runs, which allows Fernandez a great opportunity to win some games. Having already pitched 92.2 innings he only has 60-70 innings before he’s shut down. Last night, I originally had Matt Cain in the backend of my top 20 because had a very impressive five starts in a row — 1.82 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. However, after seeing him get blasted by the Dodgers last night, I had to drop him. I try to avoid overreacting to one start, good or bad, but it’s the way he looked. He couldn’t throw the ball for strikes, and when he did, those pitches found barrels.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: Doug Fister has pitched a lot better than his baseball card statistics would indicate. He’s generating ground balls 57 percent of the time, second most among starting pitchers with at least 10 starts and is only walking 3.7 percent of batters, seventh best among starters. If you can get him at a discount, you should buy right now. In seven home games, Eric Stults has a 2.85 ERA and 0.87 WHIP compared to a 4.31 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in road games this year. With two starts at home against the struggling Giants and overrated Rockies, add him to your roster right now. Francisco Liriano is scheduled against the Oakland Athletics, the fourth best offense in terms of OPS against left handed pitching. Liriano is missing a ton of bats, but he’s not going to continue to sport a 6.4 percent HR/FB rate the rest of the year. Bud Norris has been a pleasant surprise this year, but there are some major red flags. His strikeout rate has decreased five percentage points compared to last year, and his ground ball rate isn’t large enough to sustain his 3.22 ERA. Also, his 5.5 percent HR/FB rate is going to regress eventually. The Astros should trade him sooner rather than later while his value is at his highest.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: Many forget Joe Kelly was a serious contender to win the fifth spot in the Cardinals rotation over Shelby Miller. Kelly has pitched extremely well in long relief and has a plus fastball that sits in the mid-90s that allows him to miss a ton of bats. Since he hasn’t been stretched out, he may only be able to pitch 5-6 innings, limiting his opportunity to earn a win, but he’s facing the struggling Cubs. Derek Holland has pitched great, but with two brutal matchups against the Tigers and Orioles, fantasy owners are better served with leaving him on your bench. With a FIP of 3.89, Stephen Fife isn’t as good as the numbers would indicate. However, he can miss enough bats, generates ground balls nearly 50 percent of the time and most importantly, is pitching in L.A. In Jeremy Hellickson’s last four starts, he has a 1.38 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and a 23 percent strikeout rate and 7 percent walk rate. There weren’t many bigger fans of Hellickson than me this preseason, but I want to see two or three quality outings before he’s a must start.

Avoid

Additional Information: Tyler Skaggs pitched really well Friday night against the Rockies. Before the year began, I wasn’t as high on Skaggs because the lack of a quality third pitch (change-up). In order to be a successful starter a pitcher needs to have at least three quality pitches to get through a lineup three times. On Friday, his change-up flashed plus, generating swings and misses 71.4 percent of the time. If he can continue to develop the change-up, he could easily be a top 40-50 fantasy starting pitcher. Chris Archer has an electric arm, and I was extremely disappointed when he didn’t make the big-league club after spring training because I thought he was ready to contribute at the major-league level. However, in seven starts this year, Archer has been less than stellar, having trouble throwing strikes consistently and walking batters 13 percent of the time. However, if you are in need of strikeouts and can afford a hit to your WHIP, roll the dice with Archer because he will not have as good of matchup again.