Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Hello, I have a 3.95 ERA, 1.40 WHIP with a 21.8 percent strike out rate and 12.6 percent walk rate. Would you like me to join your fantasy roster? Based on those numbers most fantasy owners would say no, but this player is owned in over 90 percent of leagues. I am Matt Moore. Last night Moore had 11 strikeouts, six walks and allowed four hits in six innings against the Blue Jays. The biggest takeaway from the start (and for the season) is he’s an enigma. In the first inning he was extremely sharp with this command, throwing the fastball on both sides of the plate and generating filthy swings and misses on the curveball. In the second and third innings he lost command entirely; he couldn’t throw the fastball inside; he lost the feel for the changeup. In the fourth and fifth inning the command returned and he looked great again. The sixth inning was more like the second and third. Overall, the box score looked great, but I’m still not confident in his viability moving forward. His next starts are @Houston, White Sox and Twins so you’re probably going to start him in those matchups, but after that you should try to trade high. If you’re in a NFBC style league with no trades, you have to hold onto him because his ceiling is too high to let go. That said, I would understand if an owner dropped him.

On paper, Zack Wheeler had a very favorable matchup against the free swinging White Sox, but he only managed to strikeout one batter. Unlike the first start, which he threw primarily fastballs, Wheeler threw a lot of breaking pitches (curveballs and sliders) with mixed results. Mets Manager, Terry Collins said the slider is his best secondary pitch, but after two starts the curveball looks like the better pitch. Either way this start it looked as though the Mets mandated Wheeler to throw his secondary pitches more. In terms of the curveball Wheeler was slowing his arm down and if I can notice it, the hitters definitely noticed it. The slider, just like all of his secondary pitches, is still a work in progress as he doesn’t have good command of it yet. For every good slider there were 2-3 poor ones. Another major concern is his inability to hold runners, yesterday he allowed three stolen bases; one of which he didn’t even look at the runner on first. Overall, Wheeler is far from a finished product and will have starts like these. He should be owned in all leagues, but he’s a streaming option. His start he’s home against the Nationals and is a must start. If you can get $1.10 for him in a non-keeper league I would make the move immediately.

Even after two horrible starts for Rick Porcello I’m not jumping off the bandwagon. He pitched effectively, suffered from a .476 BABIP last night. He made good pitches, but all the contact that was made against him found holes in the defense. Also, he left the game only allowing four runs; the Tigers reliever allowed the next three runs to score.

Without a lot games on the docket I decided to watch the Giants-Dodgers game at my Mom’s house. What made the experience different is I didn’t have my notebook so I wasn’t able to look at the game closely. I found this experience extremely refreshing because it gave me an opportunity to watch a game for enjoyment purposes; that’s not to say I when I watch games “analytically” isn’t enjoyable, but it’s different when you’re watching a game trying to pick up trends and why things are happening. Also, it was funny to hear comments such as, “come on Brandon (Crawford) hit a homer” or “strike him out (to every Dodger batter)” throughout the whole game. Anyway, below are my observations.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is a solid pitcher. He’s not going to end the year with a 2.85 ERA, but his ERA won’t increase dramatically as I thought 4-5 weeks ago. His stuff isn’t over powering, but he has good command of all four of his pitches (fastball, slider, curve and change up) that will allow him to keep hitters off balanced and if he makes a mistake the home ballpark will help nullify those mistakes. If he can limit his walks I could see him with a sub-3.10 ERA for the entire year, but as of now he’s a 3.20-3.40 ERA pitcher.

Don Mattingly is a really bad strategic manager. In the eighth inning, with the game tied, there was a runner on first base and zero outs. Madison Bumgarner was pitching and Jerry Hairston was at-bat and Andrew Ethier and Juan Uribe to follow. Mattingly asked Hairston, whose hitting .263 against lefties since 2008 to bunt to get the runner to second. The only problem is Ethier can’t hit lefties (.221 batting average since 2008). So, Hairston fails to lay the bunt down and Ethier strikes out. Uribe singles then A.J. Ellis strikes out. The obvious call is to swing the bat. Hairston was put in the game to hit against Bumgarner. Anyway, I was shouting at the TV in disgust. Rant over.

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Fantasy baseball owners, please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The original article can be found at TTFB.

Top Starters

Additional Information: I’m not worried about Justin Verlander. His strikeout rate (27 percent) is the highest it’s been since 2009, and his swing-and-miss rate is the same as it was the past four seasons. The two biggest differences this year has been his BABIP of .344 and the walk rate (8.1 percent). He’s inducing the same amount of ground balls and fly balls, which leads me to believe the BABIP will regress back to his normal BABIP of .290 the rest of the season. Despite the high baseball card statistics, Homer Bailey quietly has been extremely good. His 3.75 ERA can mislead fantasy owners into thinking he’s been mediocre. Instead, look at his 2.70 FIP (fielding independent pitching), walk rates and strikeout rates. There are only 19 pitchers (with at least 12 starts) who have a strikeout rate greater than 24 percent. Of those 19 pitchers, only three have lower walk rates: Matt Harvey, Shelby Miller and Felix Hernandez.

Backend Starters

Additional Information: I’ve been resistant to believe in John Lackey, but he’s made himself into a ground-ball machine, generating ground balls 50.4 percent of the time. Among starters with at least 10 starts this year, 26 pitchers have a ground ball rate of at least 50 percent. Of those 26 pitchers, only eight have a strikeout rate greater than 20 percent. One of those pitchers is Lackey. Quietly, Yovani Gallardo has not allowed a run and has a 0.81 WHIP in his last three starts (21 innings). The Baltimore Orioles have second highest OPS in the majors and have the fifth highest OPS against lefties. This isn’t a slam dunk start for CC Sabathia, who has a 4.82 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his last five starts. Even when you remove Cole Hamels’ first two horrendous starts of the year, he still has a 3.73 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 23.3 percent strikeout rate and 7.0 percent walk rate. Hamels has been a little unlucky with his strand rate (69 percent), but all of his other peripheral statistics are basically the same. Hamels is a great buy-low candidate.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: Despite the poor start against the Orioles, I’m not backing off my love for Rick Porcello. He’s striking out 24.4 percent of batters while only walking 4 percent of batters in his last 10 starts. Since April 29, Tyler Chatwood has the second lowest ERA among starters with at least five starts despite calling Coors Field his home ballpark. He walks 8.2 percent of batters, which is too high for a pitcher who only strikes out 19.5 percent batters. This upcoming week he faces the second-worst offense in the league in the Mets. He is a must-start in all formats. Despite the poor matchup, I’m confidently starting Corey Kluber because he misses a lot of bats (24.6 strikeout rate) and his low walk rate (4.5 percent). Jose Alvarez doesn’t have remarkable stuff, but he plays on a high powered offense that faces the Angels, a team that has allowed the second most runs in the majors. So, if you’re looking for wins, Alvarez is someone you should roll the dice with. Despite pitching well recently, Matt Cain in 12 career starts at Coors Field, has a 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: Ubaldo Jimenez has a great matchup against the White Sox and a horrible matchup against the Orioles. With a 12 percent walk rate, you’re playing with fire, but it’s possible he provides a lot of strikeouts against the White Sox. In his last three starts, Edwin Jackson has looked like vintage Jackson with a 2.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 21.3 percent walk rate and 8 percent walk rate. With starts against the Ryan Braun-less Brewers and the Mariners, Jackson is a great streaming option. Like most fantasy owners, Esmil Rogers conjures up memories of high ERAs and a lot of home runs allowed, but since joining the Blue Jays rotation he has been surprisingly good. In his last three starts against the Rangers twice and the Rockies, he has 2.04 ERA, 0.85 WHIP with a strikeout rate of 18.2 percent and has only walked four batters in 17.2 innings. Since joining the starting rotation, Rogers has learned a two-seam fastball/power sinker that’s allowing him to be extremely effective because it has heavy sink and excellent movement. If Rogers wasn’t facing the Red Sox, I would’ve ranked him higher, but this is someone you want to add right now in deeper leagues because I’m a believer.

Avoid

Additional Information: The last time Matt Moore faced the Tigers he allowed six earned runs in two innings. After watching his last start, I’m passing on Moore unless I’m extremely desperate. The peripheral numbers suggest John Danks has been unlucky with the ERA, but after watching his last two starts I see little evidence of him turning this around. Since May 3, Mike Leake has been great, with a 1.81 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, but he’ll be pitching in one of the best ballparks in the league without a lot of miss-bat stuff against a team that is heating up.