Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Yesterday the Cardinals traded outfielders Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to the Rays for two prospects: pitcher, Matt Liberatore and catcher, Edgardo Rodriguez. All of my analysis will focus on the fantasy values for 2020.

Martinez will be in the wrong side of a platoon at DH/1B. For his career he’s a .331/.405/.570 against lefties, which means he’ll have value during the times the Rays are facing lefties. To be fair, he’s hit against righties too but with Ji-Man Choi and Yoshi Tsutsugo in the picture it going to be difficult for Martinez to get at-bats.

According to Keith Law’s analysis, Arozarena is the most valuable player in the deal. I’ve never seen Arozarena play and before this trade I knew next to nothing about him so I’m not going to wax on about the skills he’ll provide. By reading to Mr. Law’s report Arozarena will probably play between right and center field, which leaves Hunter Renfroe as the fourth outfielder. Austin Meadows and Kevin Kiermaier will probably miss time throughout the year so Renfroe’s draft day value will be suppressed but he could be a lottery ticket at the end of drafts. Renfroe will be a great lottery ticket towards the end of NFBC drafts.

For fantasy, Arozarena probably won’t bring anything useful in shallow formats because he won’t hit for power or steal enough bases to matter. I can see a scenario where he’s a 15/20 player, but the probability of that happening is less than 20 percent. I think 10/15 with a .280ish batting average is most likely.

The most interesting part of the deal is what this means for the fantasy values of Cardinals’ players. Harrison Bader will (finally) play every day in center field. I was high on him entering 2019 and his batting average unfortunately got BABIPed and was sent to the minors and lost his job. I think he can hit .239 with room for more because of speed. Also, it’s possible he’s a 20/20 players. It will be difficult to get the steals because he’ll likely bath eighth, but the upside is there. Lastly, if he struggles offensively, his defense is so good he should continue to play every day.

Tommy Edman will also get to play every day, probably in left field. He only played a little more than half a season, but he had the third highest WAR among position players. It seems like every year the Cardinals call-up a non-highly touted player and he does exceptionally well. Roster Resource has Dexter Fowler batting leadoff, but I think Edman will either bat first or second. (Quick aside, Fowler is done. He maybe a fifth outfielder in a 15-team mixed, but that’s his upside.) Like Bader, Edman could be a 20/20 player. I think the probability of this happening is more than 50 percent.

By June Tyler O’Neill could be the starting right fielder. He’s very much like Renfroe in that he will hit for a lot of power but will hit in the .230’s. Another scenario, albeit a more unlikely one, is Matt Carpenter gets benched, Edman moves to third base and O’Neill plays in left field. O’Neill is a great lottery ticket for the last three rounds of your NFBC draft.

A question I have continually grappled with is how to rank and project players who will most likely miss 25 percent or more of the season. The poster child for this type of player the past three years has been Rich Hill.

For the 2017 and 2018 seasons he has averaged about 133 innings with a 3.49 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 158 strikeouts. On a per start basis, he has been a top 30 starting pitcher. Last year in NFBC drafts he was the 45^th pitcher taken (which I felt was about right at the time).

For the past three years I would project how many innings Hill is most likely to pitch and then add the innings of a replacement level pitcher. For 2019 (and this year) that player was Jake Junis. (Replacement level is defined by a quality pitcher who should easily available on the waiver wire in a 12-team mixed league.)

The reason why I added replacement level innings is I want the rate statistics to comparable to all the other starting pitchers. If I project 80 innings and 96 strikeouts for Hill his value will be depressed against someone who’s projected to throw 170 innings.

I’ve thought about projecting what would Hill do if he threw 170 innings and then defining his value in-draft, but that process seems too subjective. But let’s take a look and see how Hill projects using both projection methods.

The Twins are paying him $3 million but he could make $9.5 million more if he makes 15 starts and/or throws 75 innings. Hill underwent elbow surgery to “primarily repair” a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament that he sustained in 2011. He is expected to return in June.

The contract terms signify the Twins are reasonably expecting roughly 15 starts, I’m going to back their play and project 15 starts (80 innings). Below is my projection:

Maybe I’m overly optimistic about the wins because he only averages about 5 innings per start, but the Twins should have a really good offense. However, you feel about my projections I think it is a fair projection but feel free to use your own numbers.

The question is should I project his totals as if he pitched a full season or should I add a replacement level pitcher? Let’s take a look between the two projections (below):

As you can see the projections are wildly different. A full season from Hill projects him to be my 27^th rated starting pitcher, but when I add replacement level statistics to his base rate, he becomes my 68^th rated starting pitcher.

The question where should he be drafted in 12-team mixed leagues? There are two conflicting scenarios where you could take him. One being that you have three solid pitchers on your roster and you can take a risk on him; this would be a low-risk, high upside play. The other being your pitching staff is light and you need to hit a home run with pitching later in the draft; this would be a high-risk, high upside play.

If you’re playing in NFBC the bench spot isn’t as big of a deal compared to other sites like ESPN or Yahoo. I personally don’t like having players like Hill because A) I don’t know when he’s going to pitch, if at all. B) I rather have players have high upside players who don’t currently have an everyday job but could play every day sooner rather than later.

Also, it’s possible some of Hill’s starts come in situations you don’t want to start him. For example, in Yankee Stadium. If I owned him, I would feel compelled to use him despite the poor projection for that start because I would feel like I have to use him when he’s healthy. In other words, I would feel like I have to start him because I had him on my bench for three months.

I still prefer creating projections based on the expected statistics of players and then adding replacement level statistics. In regards to Hill’s fantasy value. His value depends on what type of fantasy owner you are. If you don’t mind having a high upside pitcher who sits on your bench for three months AND he can be drafted at a reasonable price, then go for it. I personally will only look at Hill if he falls to the bottom 70’s among starting pitchers.

In investing there is something called a value trap. It’s an investment that appears to be very cheap because it is trading at low evaluation metrics like book value, earnings and so on. The investment looks too good to pass up but hidden within the numbers and analysis is further doom (like L Brands for example).

Travis Shaw signed a one-year $4 million-dollar deal with the Blue Jays and will likely be their everyday first baseman (and I presume will play some third base when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. takes a night off).

Last year Shaw’s average ADP in NFBC was 91.2 overall. Even if he repeated his good 2018 season fantasy owners were losing money/value at that ADP. (He was my 90^th hitter overall.) After looking at his brutal 2019 some fantasy owners may disregard that season and conclude he’s a value play for 2020.

The underlying statistics were so awful last year. The strikeout rate went from 18% to 33% and the contact rate went from 81% to 71%. FanSided says last year’s poor performance was all mental and the season spiraled out of control. I’ve never played baseball at any professional level, but it has to be difficult to see a .164 batting average on the big scoreboard in the middle July.

From my research Shaw didn’t have any injuries so it’s possible his issues were all mental and a blank slate will do wonders for him. However, let’s take a look at the percentage of whiffs per swing per BrooksBaseball. The whiff percentage increased nearly 12 percentage points against fastballs. That indicates A) he may have lost a tick of bat speed and was guessing at the plate, B) he lost more than a tick of bat speed or C) he abandoned his approach at the plate because of his early season struggles.

Whether Shaw is a value trap or not is dependent on where he goes in drafts. Since first base is so thin I can see many fantasy owners, when presented between Shaw versus Christian Walker/Michael Chavis/Renato Nunez, will take Shaw because he has more upside. The Brewers just signed Justin Smoak to play first base. Shaw could’ve played first base for them; the Brewers know more about Shaw than any other club and they decided to sign Smoak. Shaw can play third and second; his versatility is much more valuable than what Smoak brings. Despite all that the Brewers still decided to sign Smoak.

Unless I can get Shaw really cheap I’m not going to own him, which makes him a value trap.

All that said, what’s good about drafting Shaw is after about three weeks we should have a pretty good idea if 2019 was a fluke year or not — and that has value because if it wasn’t a fluke you can drop him and move on. If you draft Edwin Encarcion or Nelson Cruz you will have to wait until July before deciding whether to cut them or not.