Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

I wanted to discuss how one little adjustment to my projection system that has had a tremendous impact on my NFBC drafts.

In the past I would project players based on each player having a full season. For example, I would project Ryan Braun’s full season supposing he would play 150 games. That is a lot of games for Braun when you consider he hasn’t played in that many games since 2012.

The most likely scenario is he plays between 100-120 games. I currently project 550 at-bats. The odds of him reaching that is less than 20 percent, but it’s important for me to know what he will do when he’s healthy. If only projected 420 at-bats I will never draft him because he’ll be too far down in my projections because his numbers wil be compared to other players with projections for 530 at-bats.

This brings me to the main point. There a dozen or so hitters who won’t have jobs to begin the season but if an injury occurs that player will have fantasy relevance…most likely in slightly deeper formats.

For example, Michael A. Taylor. He’s currently the Nationals fourth outfielder. If Victor Robles, Adam Eaton and Juan Soto all stay healthy Taylor only gets 100-150 at-bats. However, Robles and Eaton are not bastions of health and either of them get hurt Taylor would be in-line for the majority of the playing time. Sure, Matt Adams will play every fourth day, but Taylor is the one who would benefit the most fantasy-wise. If Taylor played a full season I can see him hitting 10-15 home runs with 35 stolen bases. That would make him a borderline top-50 outfielder.

In the past I would project Taylor for 150 at-bats and I would never consider drafting him. Now, I project all hitters assuming they played every day. This process tells me which players I should draft at the end of the drafts because these players are lottery tickets. If I can draft a top 50-60 outfielder for the price of nothing I will gladly take that chance. Also, if you draft Eaton or Robles drafting Taylor gives you protection in the event either one gets hurt.

I used to be married to the players I drafted but I’ve learned that after the first month at least 5-7 players are no longer on my team so if I draft Taylor and after three weeks I want to pick up a pitcher I will do so. However, if I don’t need someone I will gladly hold my lottery ticket because you never know if the ticket is going to pay off.

Other names to look at (in no particular order):

• Matt Adams
• Hernan Perez
• Scott Kingery
• Jose Martinez
• Manuel Margot
• Franklin Barretto
• Alex Verdugo
• Ryan McMahon / Brendan Rogers
• Ian Happ
• Kyle Tucker
• Dustin Fowler
• Ryon Healey
• Willie Calhoun

I want to talk about value. Specifically, getting as much value as possible for every draft pick. Every fantasy owner knows this but so often this mentality is abandoned usually after the third round. I believe this occurs either because owners don’t know how to value players statistical output properly and/or they’re not paying attention to what statistics are on sale.

Fantasy baseball is all about accumulating statistics. Therefore, before the draft even begins every owner has to have statistical thresholds for every statistical category. Having thresholds are like the stars to the sea captain.

If you’re playing in a Roto format I recommend calculating the total statistics, you will need to finish third in every category. I recommend third because if you finish third in every category you should have enough points to win the league. Let’s look at a current example of owners not properly evaluating a player’s statistical output.

Joey Gallo has an average draft position (ADP) among hitters of 69 at NFBC. (If you want real ADP data always go to NFBC because every owner has spent a lot of money to play so you know everyone is trying their best.) I personally have him ranked 109. I’m projecting a .210 batting average with 40 home runs, 92 RBI, 83 runs and 3 stolen bases. You may think I’m pessimistic on Gallo, but let’s look at the projections on FanGraphs (below).

My projection is more bearish compared to the projection systems, but I’m in the ballpark (pun intended). You may be thinking my formula is not valuing home runs properly or my formula is trash. Let’s look at my top 25 hitters versus the top 25 hitters in ADP at NFBC below. (I used ADP data before Francisco Lindor’s injury.)

For the most part I’m sharing a brain with everyone. Of the 28 players listed my rankings are five or less draft spots away from everyone. You may be thinking I’m not valuing power properly but I’m higher on JD Martinez and more importantly, Khris Davis.

So why is there a 40-point difference in ADP for Gallo? It’s a combination of these three reasons: A) his owners are more bullish on his home run totals and think the batting average will improve, B) his owners want to lock in 40 home runs and C) Gallo provides elite output in the home run category.

I can understand the first reason but even if someone is projecting 45 home runs his ADP shouldn’t be that high. The other two reasons further represent why fantasy owners are losing value at his ADP. If Gallo is worth a 11^th round pick and someone drafts him in the 7^th round, then that person is overpaying for his statistical output. Suppose the 7^th round pick has a value of $20. If you take Gallo, whose only worth $15, at a slot that demands you get at least $20 of value you’re putting your team at a deficit. If you continue to overpay for players you’re going to have a mediocre team at best.

Sometimes it is beneficial to overpay, but you should do that for only one or two picks. If you’ve drafted speed-first players who offer no power (Billy Hamilton or Dee Gordon) it could be worth to overdraft Gallo because you will need his power to reach the necessary home run totals. However, I bet most owners are not employing that strategy.

Summary: rank all the players and compare your rankings with NFBC’s ADP. This will allow to find bargains and not overpay for players. At the end of the draft if you have got more value than anyone else you have a great chance of winning your league.

Every fantasy offseason there are a small number of players every website discusses. These players usually have a combination of two attributes: A) immense physicals traits and B) have unproven track records in the majors (i.e. at most a partial season in the majors). These players are discussed so much their fantasy value becomes large their ADP (average draft position) makes it almost impossible to make any profit.

Last year it was Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna. Two years ago, it was Trea Turner. In 2016 Gary Sanchez and Cory Seager. Every draft season pundits and fantasy players obsess over these players. I promise everyone, and their mother are going to have opinions on Adalberto Mondesi and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

What’s fascinating about people in general is they’re the allure of the dream of what could be. I feel like this phenomenon ingrained in human nature. The known is never as attractive as the unknown. Maybe we love to gamble? Maybe we want the bragging rights for the season and/or for the rest of our lives? “When I was young man I drafted Ronald Acuna. I knew he would be something special.”

Mondesi has a lot of in common with the Trea Turner. (*When I refer to Turner I am referring to him as the player he was heading into drafts two years ago). They both had incredible half seasons, they’re playing this year at age 24 and they have the raw ability to hit 20 home runs and steal 60 bases. The scouting reports say Turner is miles ahead of Mondesi in regards to approach and bat-to-ball ability, which means Mondesi far more risk than Turner.

Most fantasy experts are projecting Mondesi to hit in the .235-.250 range, which is reasonable. I take a simple approach to projecting players. Obviously Mondesi had a great half season last year, but don’t overlook the 209 plate appearances he had prior. In 500 plate appearances in the majors he’s hit .238 with 14 home runs, 46 stolen bases with 67 runs and 53 RBI. I think he can hit .245 but those numbers are on-point and I’m using those as my projection.

It’s too early for reliable NFBC data but I think he goes in the third and fourth rounds of 12 and 15 team drafts, which means I will not be drafting him this year. If goes that early people are looking mostly at the upside: A) the brief track record, B) the Royals will be bad, so he’ll play every day and C) as long as Ned Yost is the manager Mondesi will rarely have the red light when standing on first base.

However, there is just as much downside. His bat-to-ball skills and patience are very erratic and can be exploited. It’s very possible after the first 4-5 weeks he’s hitting .170 with a .220 on-base. If this happens even Ned Yost will have to move Mondesi down in the lineup. (it’s also possible Billy Hamilton gets off to fast start while Mondesi struggles and Hamilton gets the leadoff spot).

Another possibility is his inpatient approach gets exploited. Its possible pitchers didn’t watch that much film of Mondesi last year and he snuck up on pitchers. In his brief stints in the majors in 2016-17 he struck out 33% of the time. Last year it was only 26.5%. It’s possible his strikeout rate goes back to the 30% range. If that happens it will be difficult to hit .240 let alone .250.

Every pick in a draft has an expected value. It is up to the owner to get as much value for every draft pick. For example, suppose the 30^th pick has a value of $10. Your job is to try to get $10 or more of expected value. If you draft someone who only generates $5 you’ve lost half of your value and you have to get extra value somewhere else in the draft. Mondesi’s value has a wide range of outcomes, which means drafting him in the third-fourth round is extremely risky.