Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

League Background

This is a 12-team mixed NFBC draft. The roster consists of 14 hitters, nine pitchers and seven bench players. You set your pitchers once a week; hitters are set twice a week; waivers occur once a week.

My Team

Overall Thoughts

I had the 11^th pick. The analysis was written on March 23rd, the day after the draft.

My pitching staff isn’t very deep. I will have to do a lot of streaming for my pitching staff to be competitive. The hitting doesn’t look like it will be high variance; by that I mean if I think my team will hit 300 home runs we will probably hit 290-310 because a lot of the players I drafted are sorta oatmealy. To add further clarification I am not relying on players like Luis Robert; a player who could be a top 30 hitter or the 250th best hitter.

Individual Player Analysis

Julio Rodriguez (#11)- The advanced bat-to-ball stats say Rodriguez is one of the best hitters in baseball. After a disappointing 2024 can he provide a 30/30 season? I think so.

William Contreras (#14)- easily the best catcher in roto and provides elite production for his position.

Brent Rooker (#35)- Power is difficult to get and I didn’t think Rooker would fall to me in the 5^th round. A lot of power hitters come with baggage like below average batting averages but Rooker should hit .260 with 5 steals which is a rare combination. Also, Rooker pairs well with Julio because its very possible Julio only hits 20-25 home runs again. Drafting Rooker hedges my home run total.

Mason Miller (#38)- my number one closer and he was the first closer drafted. According to my models its more optimal to have two elite closers. Maybe his new home ballpark isn’t as pitcher friendly as before his stuff is so good it probably won’t matter. And if he gets traded at the deadline he probably keeps closing.

Cal Raleigh (#59)- his defense is so good he plays all the time and his offense is good enough he will get ABs at DH; also the lineup is so average that Raleigh will hit in the top five spots in the line up.

Seiya Suzuki (#62)- Very good hitter and he should stay healthy primarily DHing. I think 20/20 with a .280 batting average and 90/90 accounting statistics is very possible with  a full year of health.

Jeff Hoffman (#83)- If he can stay healthy he should end the year as a top 10 closer.

Pablo Lopez (#86)-  Very dependable and steady pitcher. Should provide 180-plus innings with great ratios. Hopefully the Twins are good enough to give him 12-plus wins.

Triston Casas (#107)-  I’m banking on a breakout for Casas. He should hit 4^th in a great lineup and in a great home ballpark.

Jeremy Pena (#110)- Even Pena is only 27 years old he has become fantasy oatmeal. He’s going to play a lot and has a floor of 15/15 with a .260 batting average.

Ryan Pepiot (#131)- Command is an issue but the stuff is so good I think if the command takes a step forward he can be a top 20 starting pitcher.

Randy Arozarena (#134)- This is a player you have to put in your lineup and don’t follow his statistics every week and month because his performance is going to be volatile. In the first half of 2024 he hit .202 with 12/14 but in the second half he hit .242 with 8/6. In 2023 the half splits were reversed.

Brandon Pfaadt (#155)- I actually had Pfaadt rated higher than Pepiot because of the A-health grade and 190 innings potential. Pfaadt would be one of the rare workhorses in the league this year.

Lane Thomas (#158)- in 2023 Thomas hit 28 home runs and stole 20 bases. After a “down” 2024 season Thomas is going in the 14^th round. I think 28 home runs was a fluke but could he get 18-20 home runs? Its very possible. Cleveland’s lineup is so average without J-Ram that Thomas should play every day despite his below average defense,

Xander Bogaerts (#179)- Is he the offensive juggernaut of 5-6 years ago? No. However, I think he is safe for 15/15 with a .270 batting average if he plays in 140 games.

Zach Neto (#182)- If Neto didn’t have shoulder surgery in the offseason he probably goes in the first 10 rounds. Even if he plays 130 games I think 20/20 is the floor. If Trout does stay healthy Neto could also be a 85/85.

Josh Jung (#203)- Wyatt Langford gets all the hype in Texas (and rightfully so) but Jung is a very good player. In 2023 he hit .266 with 23 home runs. If he can stay healthy, I think he should repeat that performance.

Yandy Diaz (#206)- I’m hoping for 18 home runs and a .285 batting average with 80 runs.

Nolan Jones (#227)- As of this writing I don’t know if Jones has a full time job but if he does, he could be a 20/20 player. The Guardians are not afraid to run. The move out Colorado isn’t as bad as some would think.

Tyler Soderstorm (#251)- He has 30 home run potential and has a chance to play every day.

Nestor Cortes (#254)- He was a borderline top 50 pitcher despite not throwing hard. He’s a very underrated pitcher; should provide 170-180 innings with above average results.

Mitch Keller (#275)- home streaming option

Tylor Megill (#278)- looked really good in the second half of 2024; if the trend continues he will not lose his spot in the rotation.

Trevor Laurnach (#299)- very good advanced hitting metrics and hits 3^rd against righties. He is very good when the schedule presents itself.

Merrill Kelly (#302)- was very good in 2022-23 but had a down year in 2024; I think he can be a streaming option at home.

Joran Lawlar (#323)- Katel Marte has a C-rated health grade; if he gets hurt Lawlar plays every day. If he played a full year he’s a 15/15 guy with 20/20 potential.

Osvaldo Bido (#326)- very good stuff but command is an issue; he could blow up in good matchups. He hasn’t looked good in the Spring but Bido is a lottery pick. If Mason Miller is traded, I can see Bido being a very good closer if the command never manifests.

Chris Paddack (#347)- his first start is against the White Sox then he will be dropped

Reid Detmers (#350)- lottery ticket; raw stuff is there but can he put it together? There’s a 10% chance.

League Background

This is a 12-team mixed NFBC draft. The roster consists of 14 hitters, nine pitchers and seven bench players. You set your pitchers once a week; hitters are set twice a week; waivers occur once a week.

My Team

Overall Thoughts

I had the fifth pick and my analysis was written on March 22nd. I’m going to have get lucky with my starting pitching and/or my two elite closers have to perform to my projections for my pitching staff to work. If my pitching holds up I should have enough hitting and hitting depth to win the league.

Individual Player Analysis

Gunnar Henderson (#5)- I think his injury isn’t serious and the worst case scenario is he misses the first week of the season. If he plays a full year, his floor is 30/20.

William Contreras (#20)- easily the best catcher in roto and provides elite production for his position.

Manny Machado (#29)- in the second half of 2024 he got fully healthy and he was a 120 wRC+ hitter with a .795 OPS; some of that came with a .379 BABIP.

Mason Miller (#44)- my number one closer and he was the first closer drafted. According to my models its more optimal to have two elite closers. Maybe his new home ballpark isn’t as pitcher friendly as before his stuff is so good it probably won’t matter. And if he gets traded at the deadline he probably keeps closing.

Edwin Diaz (#53)- Diaz was my fourth rated closer and was the best closer on my board. Between Miller and Diaz I should have 200-plus strikeouts. Diaz’s performance varies greatly year-to-year but the Mets should win the division and Diaz will get all the saves.

Cal Raleigh (#68)- his defense is so good he plays all the time and his offense is good enough he will get ABs at DH; also the lineup is so average that Raleigh will hit in the top five spots in the line up.

Luis Robert (#77)- I get it; his team sucks and he doesn’t have the best health track record but the upside is too good to pass up. I have him as a 25/25 guy with 75 runs and RBI. To be fair, he probably either surpasses or falls well behind my projection.

Triston Casas (#92)- two picks ahead of me Vinnie Pasquantino was selected and Casas was the last reliable first baseman left. Originally I wanted to draft Aaron Nola but I didn’t think Casa would make it back to me on the turnaround. Casas should play every day; in a great lineup and a great hitters ballpark.

Hunter Greene (#101)- Greene has amazing stuff; only Garrett Crochet had better stuff numbers. If he pitched in a better home ballpark he would probably be a top 10 pitcher. He throws really hard and he may get hurt but at this point in the draft he is worth the risk and upside.

Xavier Edwards (#116)- similar to Elly de la Cruz last year I think the Market is underrating how much Edwards is going to play. He will probably leadoff all year and steal 30-40 bases with 85 runs and an above average batting average.

Justin Steele (#125)- Steele was rated just behind Hunter Greene. He’s average against righty batters and doesn’t have strikeout upside but with my two closers his lack of strikeouts isn’t as big of a liability.

Ryan Pepiot (#140)- command is an issue but the stuff is so good I think if the command takes a step forward he can be a top 20 starting pitcher.

Brandon Pfaadt (#149)- I actually had Pfaadt rated higher than Pepiot because of the A-health grade and 190 innings potential. Pfaadt would be one of the rare workhorses in the league this year.

Lane Thomas (#164)- in 2023 Thomas hit 28 home runs and stole 20 bases. After a “down” 2024 season Thomas is going in the 14^th round. I think 28 home runs was a fluke but could he get 18-20 home runs? Its very possible. Cleveland’s lineup is so average without J-Ram that Thomas should play every day despite his below average defense.

Brandon Nimmo (#173)- Always underrated. I think his right knee soreness is a little concerning considering his age (31), but if he plays 140 games he should hit 23-25 home runs with plenty of RBI and a lot of runs.

Gleybor Torres (#188)- I was big on Torres last year and he struggled which is why he signed a one-year deal in Detroit. I think playing in New York affected him and playing in a small city will be a benefit. In 2022, 24 home runs; 2023, 25 home runs and 2024, 15 home runs. I think 20 home runs and 10-15 stolen bases is a reasonable projection.

Zach Neto (#197)- If Neto didn’t have shoulder surgery in the offseason he probably goes in the first 10 rounds. Even if he plays 130 games I think 20/20 is the floor. If Trout does stay healthy Neto could also be a 85/85.

Nick Lodolo (#211)- this is a bet on the stuff and if he can stay healthy.

Nestor Cortes (#221)- He was a borderline top 50 pitcher despite not throwing hard. He’s a very underrated pitcher; should provide 170-180 innings with above average results.

Nathaniel Lowe (#236)- Lowe will hit every day and will not get platooned. I don’t need massive power; I just need an above average batting average and 17-19 home runs.

TJ Friedl (#245)- in 2023 he hit 18 home runs and stole 27 bases; he has reverse platoon splits and I don’t think the Reds have a better defender in center field, which means he should play every day.

Jordan Walker (#260), Matt Wallner (#269) and Trevor Laurnach (#308)- these picks are based on exit velo and bat speed. Walker and Wallner were in the top 12 last year among hitters. Walker’s raw talent is better than his 2024 numbers indicate.

Mitch Keller (#284)- very good pitcher when he’s at home.

Merrill Kelly (#293)- was very good in 2022-23 but had a down year in 2024; I think he can be a streaming option at home.

Reid Detmers (#317)- the raw stuff is there; can he put it all together? If he looks bad the first two starts I drop him.

Osvaldo Bido (#332)- very good stuff but command is an issue; he could blow up in good matchups. He hasn’t looked good in the Spring but Bido is a lottery pick. If Mason Miller is traded, I can see Bido being a very good closer if the command never manifests.

Nolan Gorman (#341)- the raw hitting ability is there; if gets every day Abs I think he hit 30 home runs

Mitch Spence (#356)- stream option if he starts in Seattle to begin the year