Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Yesterday the regular officially ended. Usually the first day after the regular season ends is a mix of emotions. I’m sad baseball will no longer be available to watch every day on MLB.tv  and I hate the winter…especially since I moved to Portland, Oregon. The end of the regular season means winter is coming soon and the weather will be bad for the next 4-5 months. Also, the end of the regular season is usually full of disappointment because I never win my NFBC leagues. I’ve finished in second and third place before but actually coming in first has eluded me.

However, this season I won both my leagues. After my drafts I did a recap of both drafts: $150 buy-in and $500 buy-in; both leagues were 12-teams. What’s funny is I didn’t feel that happy about it. I mean, I enjoyed winning but both teams were in first place for quite awhile. One league I was in first for the last 2-3 months and the other I was in first starting late August. I know no one is going to read this but I wanted to summarize what I’ve learned this season and in general.

I’ve been playing NFBC for about 5-6 years now and the buy-in amount does not correlate to skill level of the owners. In fact I think owners at the $150 level are smarter and better fantasy players than people who pay more.

Read Winning Fantasy Baseball by Larry Schechter. It was written a couple of years ago but it is still highly relevant. The ideas in the book provide a great starting point on how to evaluate players and how to contextualize each players statistics.

Don’t get burned out. This year was the least amount of baseball I’ve watched since I started playing NFBC. In the past I felt the need to watch the pitchers on the free agent wire because it would reassure the bids I was making. However, by the time it came to put in my FAAB bids I would be too burnt out to put in the hour or two of work necessary. That’s just me not having enough time to watch baseball 10-20 hours a week and do 1-2 hours on the waiver wire. Also, by spending less time watching I was more energized and refreshed when I was on the waiver wire.

Always check the waiver wire. Honestly, in years past, I didn’t check the waiver wire every week because I thought my team was solid. “There are no better players available,” I would say some weekends. Even if you have a great team, check the players available every week. You never know what you’re going to find.

On May 18th, in my $500 league, someone dropped Matt Carpenter. I was in first place and I didn’t really need Carpenter but I saw a big opportunity. Carpenter was hitting .160ish but I looked at his underlying statistics and I still saw someone who could hit .265ish with 30 home runs. I put in a massive bid and got him (below).  After I acquired him he proceeded to hit .277 with 33 HRs, 76 RBI, 73 R & 4 SBs. Why didn’t anyone want him?!

Always stay true to your evaluations. Do not let anyone else’s opinion bias yours. I learned this back when Jacob deGrom and Andrew Heaney were rookies. Both pitchers maybe had 5-6 starts under their belts. I was debating which player to drop (I have no idea why I was looking to drop either of them). I watched all of their starts and deGrom was easily the better pitcher, but I read a couple of articles from authors I respect and they said Heaney was the better pitcher. I dropped deGrom and I finished in 4th or 5th.

Buy $10 of value for $5. A lot times a players name value increases or decreases their value despite their output is almost identical. When you draft players you’re drafting their statistical output. Nothing more, nothing less. If you can get 3o home runs in both the 5th and the 10th round then get the player in the 10th. I don’t care if those home runs come from a player I love in real life (Eugenio Suarez) or from a player I dislike in real life (Ryan Braun). Every year players go much later than they should for no obvious reasons other than their name value.

Position scarcity (other than catcher) does not exist. Heading into this season players at the MI position had more value than the CI position. Growing up in the 80s and 90s the MI position was full of guys who couldn’t hit, but that is no longer the case. I wouldn’t be shocked if 40-50% of the top 20 hitters drafted next year will be at MI. Also, outside of the top 10 first and third basemen there all pretty comparable to the 14th MI.

Have a rough estimate of what statistical output is necessary to finish third in each category. If you know where you’re going it makes drafting a breeze. You will know how many home runs you need to draft and you’ll know what statistical output is on sale. In 2018 it was low batting average hitters who hit a lot home runs. Khris Davis, Joey Gallo and Miguel Sano were all undervalued because of their low batting averages. However, if you draft players in the early rounds who will have high batting averages you can draft these guys and not take a hit on the batting average.

When you’re drafting total up the statistical output you’re acquiring. This sounds easy but you would be surprised how many people do not do this. If you know you already have enough stolen bases then the decision between someone like Ender Inciarte versus Matt Chapman is an easy one.

Don’t do mock drafts. Instead, create a draft matrix. Its not as difficult as it sounds. This is only useful for snake drafts. Basically, you look at the players that will be around your draft position and you write down which players you want will be available. So, if you have the 24th pick you want to look at the ADPs of players see which players have a 22-30 ADP. Example, if Christian Yelich has an ADP of 26 odds are he’ll be available at 24. You do this for every draft pick and all of sudden you created your own mock draft. I love NFBC so much because all the people have spent money to play and they all want to win which means the ADPs are “real”. Lastly, this process tells you statistical categories are undervalued. Like I mentioned previously, low batting average power was undervalued this year.

On Sunday morning I had my second and last draft of the season, a 12-team mixed 5×5 Roto NFBC mixed league draft with two catchers. The Google doc (below) has all my picks. I had my first draft literally  14 hours before this draft so I was a little burnt out for this draft but nonetheless I am happy with my draft. To see how my first draft turned out please go here.

The biggest flaw with my team is I am heavily relying on Trea Turner for my stolen bases. I projected him to steal 59 and I think that’s relatively fair if he plays a full year.

Below I will write a brief blurb about every player I choose.

If you would like to hear my analysis and opinions the rest of the year please listen and subscribe to my fantasy baseball podcast called The Fantasy Fellows.

Trea Turner – His floor is Starling Marte and his ceiling is the best fantasy player in the game. I seriously considered drafting Clayton Kershaw with this pick but with every mock I did I couldn’t get a good blend of offense and defense statistics.

JD Martinez – This draft room under valued home runs, which means, in retrospect I wish I took Jose Ramirez. I valued Martinez more than Ramirez because I wanted more power with a good batting average.

Kenley Jansen – I may have overpaid but with decreased starting pitcher workloads Jansen’s elite statistics are even more valuable.

Buster Posey – He was my number one catcher because of how many more games he will play compared than other catchers and because he should have a .300-plus batting average. I only projected 14 home runs, which is fine because I was prepared to draft more power later in the draft. The idea was to get a good batting average from Posey to offset the batting average from big power guys like a Joey Gallo and/or Miguel Sano. The Giants lineup is much better compared to last year so his counting statistics should be very good. Lastly, NFBC is a two catcher format. I applied position scarcity to catcher and Posey was an easy pick at this ADP.

Jean Segura – I actually wanted Segura at the Posey pick, but I was monitoring the team compositions of the two teams that picked behind me and they all had shortstops rostered, which means I felt like Segura would come back to me on the turn.

Khris Davis – I didn’t think Davis would fall to me at this pick but he did. He is a very consistent power hitter. He probably hits .245 with 40-45 home runs.

Nelson Cruz – At the previous pick I was debating between Davis and Cruz even though I had Cruz rated higher. I sided with Davis because I felt he was safer. When Cruz came back around on the turn I couldn’t pass him up.

Jon Lester and Mashiro Tanaka – I originally didn’t want to take pitching here but I couldn’t pass these guys up. I rated both of them as Tier 4 pitching options that should positively regress. I don’t expect ace level production but I think they positively regress. Its also possible they win 14-17 games because of the teams they play for.

Joey Gallo – He has the most raw power in baseball and I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 50-plus home runs. I think the batting average positively regresses to the .220s.

Ender Inciarte – Taking Inciarte fits my team really well because of the high batting average, steals and the potential to score 100 runs. I only projected nine home runs but Sano and Gallo fills in the power numbers.

Ian Desmond – I think Desmond plays every day. He’s getting paid too much to not play every day. If he plays a full year he either goes 20/20 or is very close.

Wilson Ramos – I rated both Ramos and Yadier Molina as the same but I went with Ramos because he has higher upside and my offense, at this point, lacked upside compared to my draft yesterday. Ramos is very good he should hit in the prime spots in the lineup (probably 4th of 5th).

Ian Kinsler – At this point in the draft Kinsler was the best second baseman available. Other “better” hitters at other positions were available but delta between Kinsler and other second basemen was extremely high. *At this point in the draft I didn’t know Scott Kingery signed his contract. If I knew Kingery was available I would have drafted him. I think Kinsler bounces back. He is going to bat leadoff and he should score 100 runs with 15-20 home runs.

Carlos Santana – I view Santana as extremely safe; he doesn’t have a lot of upside but he has an extremely high floor.

Mike Clevinger – I love Clevinger’s strikeout potential. The only way my pitching strategy works is if I get a lot of strikeouts from my starting pitching and at this point in the draft Clevinger had the most upside. Clevinger’s rate stats and ADP reminds me of Robbie Ray two years ago.

Michael Conforto – If he comes back May 1 he is a great value at this ADP.

Julio Teheran and Tanner Roark – I spoke about about both of these guys in the Fantasy Fellows, but the summary is: they are not as bad as 2016 and not as good as 2015. They are a blend of both seasons. I would not be shocked if Roark wins 17-19 games for that team in that division.

Odubel Herrera – Herrera probably doesn’t get to play every day because there are 5-6 players for 4 positions, but he should provide 15/15 with a .280 batting average.

Willie Calhoun – If Calhoun was on the Opening Day Roster he goes at least 5-10 rounds earlier. I think he spends the first month in AAA to extend his team control a year. Currently, Ryan Rua is the left fielder. No offense to Rua but Calhoun is a much better hitter.

Cameron Maybin – I don’t he plays a full year but on my roster he doesn’t need to. My idea during the draft was if you combine 4-5 weeks of Maybin with the statistics of Conforto or Willie Calhoun you have a player with 25 home runs with 10-15 stolen bases.

Marco Estrada – He positively regresses this year.

Eduardo Rodriguez – He was extremely good before he hurt his knee.

Tyler Glasnow – The last two seasons in AAA he has 200 innings pitched. In those innings he has 270 strikeouts with a sub-2.00 ERA. If can figure it out he’s 2017 Luis Severino from a ADP perspective.

Brad Boxberger – I think he’s the Diamondbacks closer to begin the year and Archie Bradley is a two inning reliever.

Cam Bedrosian – All reports say he’s the closer. I think he positively regresses this year and if he is somewhat good to begin the year he will have a long leash because the Angels manager is very loyal to his closers.

Tyler Lyons – With Luke Gregerson hurt Lyons should get the first save opportunity but the Cardinals manager probably will not do that because Lyons is a lefty and lefty relievers do not close games. But you never know.

Walker Buehler – From the scouting reports I’ve read he’s ready for the majors. The Dodgers are not shy to quickly bring up prospects after they have an extra year of control over a player. The Dodgers rotation has a lot of health question marks so I figure he’s in the majors by May 1.

Yoshihisa Hirano – Hirano is probably not good enough to close but this pick is more about me not believing Archie Bradley closes games and drafting Hirano hedges my bet on the Diamondbacks bullpen. If Hirano is the 7th inning reliever then I drop him for someone else.

On Saturday night I had my first draft of the season, a 12-team mixed 5×5 Roto NFBC mixed league draft with two catchers. The Google doc (below) has all my picks.

Overall, I am very happy with my draft. The biggest flaw with my team is I probably do not have enough power, but that was somewhat intentional because I think finding power should be the easiest statistic to find on the waiver wire.

Below I will write a brief blurb about every player I choose.

If you would like to hear my analysis and opinions the rest of the year please listen and subscribe to my fantasy baseball podcast called The Fantasy Fellows.

Jose Altuve – Everyone agrees Altuve is one of the rare five category studs. If he plays a full year

Jose Ramirez – I am higher on Ramirez than most. He’s another five category stud who should bat third the entire year (maybe he will bat second when Michael Brantley comes back). If he plays a full year he could go 30/20 with a .300-plus batting average.

Kenley Jansen – I may have overpaid but with decreased starting pitcher workloads Jansen’s elite statistics are even more valuable.

Starling Marte – He will probably bat second or third in a pretty sneaky lineup. He’s only 29 years old so he should steal 30-plus bases with a lot of counting statistics and an above average batting average and 15ish home runs.

Buster Posey – He was my number one catcher because of how many more games he will play compared than other catchers and because he should have a .300-plus batting average. I only projected 14 home runs, which is fine because I was prepared to draft more power later in the draft. The idea was to get a good batting average from Posey to offset the batting average from big power guys like a Joey Gallo and/or Miguel Sano. The Giants lineup is much better compared to last year so his counting statistics should be very good. Lastly, NFBC is a two catcher format. I applied position scarcity to catcher and Posey was an easy pick at this ADP.

Roberto Osuna – He was my third closer overall. My idea with drafting two closers was to get insane rate statistics with a lot of strikeouts.

Elvis Andrus – Originally I want Jean Segura because Segura would probably have a higher batting average but the difference between the two players other than batting average was minimal. I do not believe in the home run spike. He probably hits 10-12 home runs but I wanted him because of the 24-30 stolen bases.

Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo – both of these players should hit 40 or more home runs with room for 50-plus. Sano’s value increased because he will not be suspended for alleged sexual misconduct. For some teams these two players would dramatically bring down the batting average for a team but with the hitters I drafted I was still projected to hit in the .280s. I am worried Sano came to camp out of shape, which doesn’t make me feel good about playing a full season coming off a leg injury last year. Also, Sano cannot play DH because Logan Morrison has that spot.

Ender Inciarte – Taking Inciarte fits my team really well because of the high batting average, steals and the potential to score 100 runs. I only projected nine home runs but Sano and Gallo fills in the power numbers.

Kevin Kiermier – I originally wanted to take Ian Desmond with this pick because of his 20/20 potential so I “settled” on Kiermier because he has similar rate stat potential. The Rays still have an average lineup especially atop the lineup.

Mike Clevinger – I love Clevinger’s strikeout potential. The only way my pitching strategy works is if I get a lot of strikeouts from my starting pitching and at this point in the draft Clevinger had the most upside. Clevinger’s rate stats and ADP reminds me of Robbie Ray two years ago.

Yadier Molina – I am hoping for a .270 batting average with solid rate stats. He probably won’t play as much this year but he should still play a lot. All I wanted was a catcher that didn’t hurt me in batting average with solid rate statistics.

Marcus Semien – People forget how good he was two years ago. He is healthy and there is virtually no one in the system who could take playing time from him. Franklin Barretto is probably playing second base/center field. Jorge Mateo is lurking but some scouts also see him as a center fielder too. If Semien plays a full year his floor is 20/10 with 30/20 upside.

Eugenio Suarez – The Reds signed him to a long term deal this offseason. Some analysts point out most of his power came at home last year. However, if you look at previous years his power numbers were solid on the road. He should hit 22-26 home runs with a high OBP. He should bat third so he should have a lot of at-bats with men on-base.

Tanner Roark – I spoke about him in the Fantasy Fellows, but the summary is: he’s not as bad as 2016 and not as good as 2015. He’s a blend of both seasons. I would not be shocked if he wins 17-19 games for that team in that division.

Odubel Herrera – Herrera probably doesn’t get to play every day because there are 5-6 players for 4 positions, but he should provide 15/15 with a .280 batting average.

Rick Porcello – See Tanner Roark. If he throws 190-200 innings he should provide 170-180 strikeouts.

Jeff Samardjzija – He is out for 3-4 weeks but its a pectoral muscle and not a shoulder or elbow. I loved him before the injury and if he comes back on time I think I make a profit.

Willie Calhoun – If Calhoun was on the Opening Day Roster he goes at least 5-10 rounds earlier. I think he spends the first month in AAA to extend his team control a year. Currently, Ryan Rua is the left fielder. No offense to Rua but Calhoun is a much better hitter.

Marco Estrada – He positively regresses this year.

Eduardo Rodriguez – He was extremely good before he hurt his knee.

Mike Foltynewicz – If he figures it out as a starting pitcher he’s a top 40 guy.

Danny Salazar – If I get 15 starts from Salazar this is a great value.

Tyler Glasnow – The last two seasons in AAA he has 200 innings pitched. In those innings he has 270 strikeouts with a sub-2.00 ERA. If can figure it out he’s 2017 Luis Severino from a ADP perspective.

Brad Boxberger – I think he’s the Diamondbacks closer to begin the year and Archie Bradley is a two inning reliever.

Matt Joyce – Last year from May 1 to the end of the year he hit .256 with 23 home runs. Sneaky good power and should hit atop the lineup.

Matt Shoemaker – Looking for quality innings.

Joc Pedersen – He is in a platoon with Matt Kemp but maybe he carries over the great postseason into 2018?

Kolton Wong – Maybe he steals more bases in 2018?