On Saturday night I had my first draft of the season, a 12-team mixed 5×5 Roto NFBC mixed league draft with two catchers. The Google doc (below) has all my picks.
Overall, I am very happy with my draft. The biggest flaw with my team is I probably do not have enough power, but that was somewhat intentional because I think finding power should be the easiest statistic to find on the waiver wire.
Below I will write a brief blurb about every player I choose.
If you would like to hear my analysis and opinions the rest of the year please listen and subscribe to my fantasy baseball podcast called The Fantasy Fellows.
Jose Altuve – Everyone agrees Altuve is one of the rare five category studs. If he plays a full year
Jose Ramirez – I am higher on Ramirez than most. He’s another five category stud who should bat third the entire year (maybe he will bat second when Michael Brantley comes back). If he plays a full year he could go 30/20 with a .300-plus batting average.
Kenley Jansen – I may have overpaid but with decreased starting pitcher workloads Jansen’s elite statistics are even more valuable.
Starling Marte – He will probably bat second or third in a pretty sneaky lineup. He’s only 29 years old so he should steal 30-plus bases with a lot of counting statistics and an above average batting average and 15ish home runs.
Buster Posey – He was my number one catcher because of how many more games he will play compared than other catchers and because he should have a .300-plus batting average. I only projected 14 home runs, which is fine because I was prepared to draft more power later in the draft. The idea was to get a good batting average from Posey to offset the batting average from big power guys like a Joey Gallo and/or Miguel Sano. The Giants lineup is much better compared to last year so his counting statistics should be very good. Lastly, NFBC is a two catcher format. I applied position scarcity to catcher and Posey was an easy pick at this ADP.
Roberto Osuna – He was my third closer overall. My idea with drafting two closers was to get insane rate statistics with a lot of strikeouts.
Elvis Andrus – Originally I want Jean Segura because Segura would probably have a higher batting average but the difference between the two players other than batting average was minimal. I do not believe in the home run spike. He probably hits 10-12 home runs but I wanted him because of the 24-30 stolen bases.
Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo – both of these players should hit 40 or more home runs with room for 50-plus. Sano’s value increased because he will not be suspended for alleged sexual misconduct. For some teams these two players would dramatically bring down the batting average for a team but with the hitters I drafted I was still projected to hit in the .280s. I am worried Sano came to camp out of shape, which doesn’t make me feel good about playing a full season coming off a leg injury last year. Also, Sano cannot play DH because Logan Morrison has that spot.
Ender Inciarte – Taking Inciarte fits my team really well because of the high batting average, steals and the potential to score 100 runs. I only projected nine home runs but Sano and Gallo fills in the power numbers.
Kevin Kiermier – I originally wanted to take Ian Desmond with this pick because of his 20/20 potential so I “settled” on Kiermier because he has similar rate stat potential. The Rays still have an average lineup especially atop the lineup.
Mike Clevinger – I love Clevinger’s strikeout potential. The only way my pitching strategy works is if I get a lot of strikeouts from my starting pitching and at this point in the draft Clevinger had the most upside. Clevinger’s rate stats and ADP reminds me of Robbie Ray two years ago.
Yadier Molina – I am hoping for a .270 batting average with solid rate stats. He probably won’t play as much this year but he should still play a lot. All I wanted was a catcher that didn’t hurt me in batting average with solid rate statistics.
Marcus Semien – People forget how good he was two years ago. He is healthy and there is virtually no one in the system who could take playing time from him. Franklin Barretto is probably playing second base/center field. Jorge Mateo is lurking but some scouts also see him as a center fielder too. If Semien plays a full year his floor is 20/10 with 30/20 upside.
Eugenio Suarez – The Reds signed him to a long term deal this offseason. Some analysts point out most of his power came at home last year. However, if you look at previous years his power numbers were solid on the road. He should hit 22-26 home runs with a high OBP. He should bat third so he should have a lot of at-bats with men on-base.
Tanner Roark – I spoke about him in the Fantasy Fellows, but the summary is: he’s not as bad as 2016 and not as good as 2015. He’s a blend of both seasons. I would not be shocked if he wins 17-19 games for that team in that division.
Odubel Herrera – Herrera probably doesn’t get to play every day because there are 5-6 players for 4 positions, but he should provide 15/15 with a .280 batting average.
Rick Porcello – See Tanner Roark. If he throws 190-200 innings he should provide 170-180 strikeouts.
Jeff Samardjzija – He is out for 3-4 weeks but its a pectoral muscle and not a shoulder or elbow. I loved him before the injury and if he comes back on time I think I make a profit.
Willie Calhoun – If Calhoun was on the Opening Day Roster he goes at least 5-10 rounds earlier. I think he spends the first month in AAA to extend his team control a year. Currently, Ryan Rua is the left fielder. No offense to Rua but Calhoun is a much better hitter.
Marco Estrada – He positively regresses this year.
Eduardo Rodriguez – He was extremely good before he hurt his knee.
Mike Foltynewicz – If he figures it out as a starting pitcher he’s a top 40 guy.
Danny Salazar – If I get 15 starts from Salazar this is a great value.
Tyler Glasnow – The last two seasons in AAA he has 200 innings pitched. In those innings he has 270 strikeouts with a sub-2.00 ERA. If can figure it out he’s 2017 Luis Severino from a ADP perspective.
Brad Boxberger – I think he’s the Diamondbacks closer to begin the year and Archie Bradley is a two inning reliever.
Matt Joyce – Last year from May 1 to the end of the year he hit .256 with 23 home runs. Sneaky good power and should hit atop the lineup.
Matt Shoemaker – Looking for quality innings.
Joc Pedersen – He is in a platoon with Matt Kemp but maybe he carries over the great postseason into 2018?
Kolton Wong – Maybe he steals more bases in 2018?
