Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 23 third basemen. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams.

When looking at third base I recommend drafting one of the top 5-6 third basemen because after that there are a lot of question marks and a ceiling for tremendous upside. Right as I pasted my projections into Google Docs I realized the projected RBI totals for Kyle Seager were too low. The Mariners have OBP issues atop the lineup, but I think he could barely break the 80 barrier (as you will see in the projections below).

The biggest question I have about Justin Turner is can he stay healthy? Last year he dealt with leg and knee issues and he still played the second most games in his career (126). The most games he’s played is 127 in 2011. He turned 31 this past November so expecting more than 125 games played could be far fetched. However, suppose he plays in 135-140 games. He could provide tremendous value. He’s hitting third in a lineup that should at least be above average and most importantly, has the hard hit data to strongly indicate he’s going to drive in a lot of runs.

I’m not buying Matt Carpenter. He hit 28 home runs but that came at a severe cost. The strikeout rate increased seven percentage points (to 22.6 percent) and the swing and miss rate increased nine percentage points compared to the previous season. Despite the new approach his hard hit rate only increased seven percent compared to his career numbers before 2015. The power is going to decrease. The biggest question I have is will the OBP still be there when the power is gone?

If you remove the month of April (where he hit .356) Mike Moustakas was a .270 hitter. That’s still very good in the strikeout era, but if he’s only going to provide 16-21 home runs there’s not a lot of value for the ADP you’re going to have pay on draft day. You may be saying something to the effect of, “he’s still young; he can hit for more power.” He is only 27 years old, but his hard hit rate only increased eight percent while his ground ball rate was the highest it’s been since becoming a full time player. He’ll be a solid player in 2016, but draft appropriately.

I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As Top 10 Third Baseman:

With Brett Lawrie being traded to the White Sox Danny Valencia will get every chance to be the every day third baseman for the A’s. Valencia was mostly used as a platoon bat, but when the A’s claimed him off waivers he played every day and most importantly, he hit. In 47 games he hit 11 homers with a .886 OPS. For his career he has a .237/.275/.389 slash line against righties, but last year he hit .285/.325/.556 with the lowest strikeout rate since 2011. In regards to hard hit contact he ranked 40th among all qualified players so it’s possible he hits 25-plus home runs. He’ll likely begin the year batting fourth and has a very good chance of staying in that spot all year.

The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 34 first basemen. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams.

Before I discuss the state of the position I wanted to note I included DH-only players with the first basemen. First base is where you’ll find power and after the top 6-7 they all provide the same value, but for different reasons.

At first I thought my Anthony Rizzo ranking was too high, but I’m projecting 11 stolen bases, which gives him a huge leg up over his contemporaries. Last year Rizzo had 17 stolen bases. The previous two seasons he had 11. If I change the projection to only five stolen bases he still ranks as the number three first baseman, but it’s a distant third. Rizzo is going to have many plate appearances with men on-base. Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist combined for a .358 OBP last year. Even if Zobrist falls off a little there are other hitters who can step into the top of the order provide a high OBP. Last year he scored 94 runs. I’m projecting 96, but I think that’s too low.

A lot of fantasy players love Edwin Encarnacion, but I’m very wary. I understand the love. He plays in a great hitters ballpark and easily the best lineup in baseball. However, after looking at last year there a lot of warning signs. For the first four months of the season he was hitting .241 with 19 home runs. What was the most troubling was his hard hit rate was 21.7 percent. From 2012-14 it was 28.5 percent. The drop off may sound like a lot, but that’s nearly a 32 percent drop. In the last two months he hit .344 with 20 home runs and a 36.4 percent hard hit rate. I do not like hitters whose value was dependent upon a short time frame, but if you look at his overall numbers it looks like a typical year for him. The bottom line is how someone evaluates his numbers is all about preference and for me there is a higher probability his value decreases than increases or stabilizes.

The Albert Pujols and Greg Bird projections assumes they play a full year. His projection may change dramatically depending on how looks in Spring Training. Bird probably begins the year in the minors, but if he gets called up he’s going to be on everyone’s priority list during the waiver period.

If Chris Carter plays a full year he’s going to h it 30-plus home runs with a batting average in the .220s, but my biggest reservation is he gets traded at the trade deadline and no longer receives everyday at-bats.

Two years ago everyone loved Wil Myers. He was the 2013 Rookie of the Year and he showed his minor league statistics were translating into the Majors. However, in 2014 he was only limited to 87 games due to an injury where he collided with Desmond Jennings. Last year he only played in 60 games due to a wrist injury. Myers is only 25 years old and will likely bat second or third so he’ll have an opportunity to score and drive in runs. The raw talent is certainly there. The question with him is will he be healthy? His current ADP is 213. At that price I’ll buy.

I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As Top 10 First Baseman:

I never believed in Chris Colabello last year but he proved me wrong because he kept hitting. From 2013-14, in 401 plate appearances his slash line was .214/.284/.364. Last year he hit .321 with 15 home runs in only 360 plate appearances. The number that stood out the most was the hard hit rate (24.5 percent). That number may not like much but that is the 33rd highest hard hit rate among qualified hitters last year. If he keeps up last years hard hit rate he could hit 25 home runs with 80-plus RBIs assuming he bats fifth all year. Edwin Encarnacion is basically a DH-only player and Justin Smoak is never going to figure out how to hit so there is a clear path to playing time for Colabello. His ADP is 328, which means he’s basically an after thought. He won’t be for me on draft day.

The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 24 catchers. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams and two catchers.

Overall, the state of position is as really down. Other than Buster Posey there is no consistency. Kyle Schwarber is my second catcher, but he’s far from a finished product and I could see many scenarios where he struggles for an extended part of the season before settling into a groove. With all the catcher defensive specific data available baseball teams are looking for defensive catchers rather than offensive first catcher. This trend makes the catcher landscape very muddled.

My strategy heading into my drafts, if I’m drafting in the back half, will be to draft Posey with my first pick because the drop off after him is immense and catcher is the only scare position. If I do not draft Posey based on current NFBC ADP Data I’ll mostly likely end up with Yan Gomes and JR Murphy.

I loved Gomes last year and I believe he’ll bounce back after an injury plagued season. With Murphy I’m banking on two things. First, that the Twins allow him to be the primary catcher. Second, that he’ll have a respectable average and hit 10-plus home runs. He has a short swing and a very good approach, which should allow for solid OBP.

I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As #1 Catcher:

The biggest reason why Travis d’Arnaud has not had a huge fantasy season is due to health. Last year it was elbow and hand issues. In 2014 it was a concussion. In his professional career he’s only played in 100-plus games three out of nine seasons. In terms of offensive talent he may be the second best hitter (after Posey) at the position. I’m probably too low on him, but I want to see how he looks in Spring Training. Also, the Mets probably make share a large part of the workload with Kevin Plawecki. If the 2016 season was played 100 times, 1-5 of those seasons he finishes the year as the number one catcher because he plays 130 games and hits .270 with 30 home runs.