Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

In the yearly tradition of buy low trades the A’s acquired first baseman Yonder Alonso and lefty reliever Marc Rzepczynski for Drew Pomeranz and minor-leaguer Jose Torres. When I first saw the trade I thought it was misprint because the trade didn’t make sense for the A’s. My perception of the A’s was they struggled scoring runs, but that wasn’t the case. They ranked 20^th in home runs and were tied for 13^th in runs scored and they achieved that with Billy Butler clogging their DH spot.

Alonso is an oft-injured glove first player at a premium offensive position. He has only played more than 140 games once in his career (in 2012). Last May he went on the DL with a shoulder strain after making a diving stop. In September he landed on the 60-day DL with a lower back strain. In 2014 he was only limited to 84 games due to a sore right wrist and a right forearm strain.

From a fantasy perspective he’s going to have more real life value than fantasy. For the past three seasons he played in San Diego and it is possible the ballpark suppressed his numbers, but that’s not the case. The table below shows his home-road splits since joining the Padres in 2012.

If Alonso is able to play 140 games he’s primary fantasy asset will be the batting average. His hard hit rate suggests he should hit about 15 home runs, but his extremely high ground ball rate will limit his home run potential to 12-13 home runs. Based on how the lineup is constructed he is going to hit in the bottom third of the order limiting his run scoring and RBI potential.

The addition of Alonso makes a Mark Canha a platoon player entering Spring Training, but I bet he plays in just as many games as last year (124). First of all he’s going to play against lefties and both Alonso and the incumbent left fielder Coco Crisp are very good bets to hit the DL (I don’t see Crisp playing more than 60 games). If Canha gets consistent playing time he hit atop the order. During the last two months of the season Canha was hitting second against both righties and lefties. If Canha played every day he could hit 20 home runs with a .260 batting average so he will have sneaky fantasy value in deeper mixed formats even if he doesn’t have a starting job at the start of the year.

In regards to Pomeranz, he’s going to be a dynamite lefty out of the bullpen. I’ve said for over a year he’s a reliever because he’s a two-pitch pitcher and doesn’t have the fastball command to go through a lineup three times consistently. He’s currently the only lefty in the bullpen so he’s not likely to earn saves, but the Padres bullpen doesn’t have a “proven closer” and he did close briefly for the A’s last year. I wouldn’t be shocked if he had a couple of spot starts, which will be valuable if he’s pitching at home.

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

In his last six starts Josh Tomlin has a 2.85 ERA, 0.732 WHIP, 24.8 percent strikeout rate and 2.0 percent walk rate. The question is are those number legitimate? No. During this time frame he has a .167 BABIP and his hard hit rate is similar to last year’s numbers. However, I am buying the increase in strikeout rate. The cutter looks much better than it ever did. Specifically, he’s throwing it for more strikes and is throwing it on the outer half of the strike zone.

Ian Kennedy, in his last ten starts, has a 2.74 ERA and 1.139 WHIP. During this span he’s striking out 29.1 percent of hitters and is finally showing the promise he showed last season. Now that the season is coming to an end his underlying peripherals are almost identical. Depending on where he signs in the offseason he’s going to be a sleeper for me for redraft leagues next season. All that said, I’m starting him in Colorado.

At the trade deadline I said Mike Leake I said I wouldn’t be surprised if Leake has the most real life value of all the pitchers traded at the trade deadline. Since the trade deadline Leake has a 2.87 ERA and 0.994 WHIP. I’ve been writing all season Leake is a great streamer and DFS option when he’s pitching on the road because his overall ERA and WHIP numbers have been inflated by the Reds home ballpark.

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

Since coming off the DL, in three starts, Derek Holland has 20 strikeouts and one walk. On paper the Mariners matchup looks like a great one, but the Mariners lead the majors in hard hit rate. Holland’s hit rate is very unusual in that he’s not allowing more hard contact, but he’s allowing less soft contact. Since the game is in Seattle I’m willing to bank on Holland’s skill set and the ballpark.

On paper Jon Gray could be a really sneaky streaming option because he’s on the road against a below average offense in a pitcher’s park. However, he allows a lot of hard contact, which doesn’t bode well for him. The counter point is he’s only had two of his six starts on the road. In his two road starts he has a 25.6 percent strikeout rate and 9.3 percent walk rate. He has many expected outcomes so buyer beware.

Colin Rea doesn’t have a high upside ceiling in regards to his overall future potential, but he faces the Rockies at home and a depleted Giants offense in San Francisco. Rea throws four pitches for strikes, but the quality of his is merely average. He’s only had five starts, but he’s allowing a lot of hard hit contact. So much so he would be on of the worst pitchers among qualified starting pitchers. He has a .338 BABIP so maybe he has been a little unlucky and the hard contact could be a little fluky, but from what I’ve seen he’s been hard hit because his command hasn’t been as good as it needs to be.

Since June Chris Heston has a 3.36 ERA and 1.249 WHIP (in 16 starts). He’s a high walker, but he’s been able to be successful because he ranks in the top 25 percent among qualified starting pitchers in ground ball rate. The Diamondbacks against righties, for the year, are tenth in hard hit rate and 11th in wOBA. The fact the game is in Arizona hurts Heston, but the Diamondbacks have the third highest ground ball rate so Heston will likely induce a lot of ground balls and should provide at least a quality start.