Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 28 shortstops. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams.

The shortstop position is incredibly thin. If you’re playing with a middle infield position you’re going to want to fill the position with a second baseman. If you miss out on Carlos Correa this is the position where I’m going to draft stolen bases. Stolen base totals were down league wide. In fact it was the lowest its been since 1974. Elvis Andrus and Jean Segura do not have immense upsides, but you can bank 20-plus bases with upside for 40.

I assumed Wilmer Flores plays every day, but he currently does not have a starting job. I’m probably too low on Jhonny Peralta’s account numbers if he’s going to hit fourth in the lineup (as RosterResource is projecting). My projection of Peralta assumes he splits time in the 5-6 spots in the lineup.

Despite the hard hit rate increase I do not believe the 21 home runs for Brandon Crawford are repeatable. The primary reason is the 14.3 percent HR/FB rate probably will not repeat. So, instead of hitting eight home runs at home he maybe only hits 4-5. I’m projecting 16 home runs so I think the power increase is real, but I’m not going to draft him with 20 home runs as his new baseline.

As a prospect scouts said Xander Bogaerts had the raw power to hit 30-plus home runs. In nearly 1,300 plate appearances he only has 20. He turned 23 this past October so he still has plenty of time to grow into his power. I’m projecting 12 home runs, which feels a little low. I think 14-16 is more realistic, but I digress. It’s reductive to simply say 2015’s batting average was due to BABIP, but all the advanced numbers suggest it was BABIP. For example, he hit .347 on ground balls, the third highest among qualified batters. Looking at the NFBC ADP data it looks like the market is properly valuing Bogaerts.

I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As Top 10 Shortstop:

Of all the players at the position I would not be surprised if Addison Russell takes a giant leap without any statistical indicators. The leap could come as early as 2016. In 2013 I watched him in High-A Stockton and everyone raved about his work ethic. When choosing players that could breakout I prefer players who have better raw tools and pedigree. The biggest impediment for 2016 is he’s going to hit at the bottom of the lineup so his account statistics will be limited. Even if Ben Zobrist or Jason Heyward get hurt there other options that would receive the opportunity atop the lineup. However, if he plays a full year he’s a relative safe bet for a 10/10 with the upside for 20/20.

The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 29 second basemen. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams.

The second base position is incredibly top heavy with two superstars (Jose Altuve and Dee Gordon) with 4-5 other players who could finish as the best second baseman. After the first 6-7 second baseman they’re all about the same.

The Javier Baez projection assumes he starts the year in the majors. I ranked Addison Russell as a shortstop.

When evaluating Anthony Rendon is entirely dependent upon the league format. If I’m in a shallow league I’ll bump him up in my overall rankings. The reason being you win leagues by having players dramatically outperform their ADPs. In a deeper league I would be more wary. The reason being if he gets hurt the replacement level player is so much less than in a shallower league. Rendon has battled injuries for most of his professional career. Last year he had a MCL knee sprain in Spring Training then he hurt his oblique in a rehab game. Overall, injuries limited him to 80 games and when he did play he didn’t provide much value. I personally discounted his 2015 statistics because his hard hit rate was so much lower than his previous two seasons. If he plays a full year he’s going to bat second and he could score more than 100 runs in that lineup.

DJ LeMahieu is going as the 11th second baseman in NFBC drafts, which is too low. His career road numbers suggest he’s not a good hitter, but that doesn’t matter because he plays half of his games in Colorado. LeMahieu is getting the 2015 Charlie Blackmon treatment in that he’s being overlooked because the road numbers suggest he’s not good and therefore the market suppresses their value during the draft. I projected a .290 batting average because of the home ballpark and the hard hit rate increased 40 percent last year. Also, Walt Weiss is back as the Rockies manager so he could steal 20 bases again.

I have no idea why Joe Panik is being drafted as the 20th second baseman. In 719 career plate appearances he has a .309 batting average with a .336 BABIP. Some fantasy owners may discount the high batting average as BABIP inflated, but I believe that’s essentially his baseline. Panik has a great approach at the plate and makes a lot of contact. If he played a full year he would have finished sixth in contact rate. Last year he missed the second half of the year with a back injury so that is something to monitor in Spring Training. If he plays a full year he could score 100-plus runs in a lineup that should be much improved.

I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As Top 10 Second Baseman:

This recommendation depends on Chase Utley earning a starting job, but I believe a path to playing every day is easily within reach. I don’t believe Enrique Hernandez’s .302 batting average last year (because of the insanely high BABIP and his ability to make contact in the minors has been very sporadic). Utley had a horrible BABIP 2015, but that came along with a really high hard hit rate; so high that ranked in the top 30 percent of hitters last year. If he plays a full year and maintains the hard hit rate he’s going to hit 16-plus home runs. If he plays he’s going to hit atop the lineup so he could score 80-plus runs. There are a lot of if’s but at his current price he’s worth a look in deeper formats.

The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 23 third basemen. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams.

When looking at third base I recommend drafting one of the top 5-6 third basemen because after that there are a lot of question marks and a ceiling for tremendous upside. Right as I pasted my projections into Google Docs I realized the projected RBI totals for Kyle Seager were too low. The Mariners have OBP issues atop the lineup, but I think he could barely break the 80 barrier (as you will see in the projections below).

The biggest question I have about Justin Turner is can he stay healthy? Last year he dealt with leg and knee issues and he still played the second most games in his career (126). The most games he’s played is 127 in 2011. He turned 31 this past November so expecting more than 125 games played could be far fetched. However, suppose he plays in 135-140 games. He could provide tremendous value. He’s hitting third in a lineup that should at least be above average and most importantly, has the hard hit data to strongly indicate he’s going to drive in a lot of runs.

I’m not buying Matt Carpenter. He hit 28 home runs but that came at a severe cost. The strikeout rate increased seven percentage points (to 22.6 percent) and the swing and miss rate increased nine percentage points compared to the previous season. Despite the new approach his hard hit rate only increased seven percent compared to his career numbers before 2015. The power is going to decrease. The biggest question I have is will the OBP still be there when the power is gone?

If you remove the month of April (where he hit .356) Mike Moustakas was a .270 hitter. That’s still very good in the strikeout era, but if he’s only going to provide 16-21 home runs there’s not a lot of value for the ADP you’re going to have pay on draft day. You may be saying something to the effect of, “he’s still young; he can hit for more power.” He is only 27 years old, but his hard hit rate only increased eight percent while his ground ball rate was the highest it’s been since becoming a full time player. He’ll be a solid player in 2016, but draft appropriately.

I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As Top 10 Third Baseman:

With Brett Lawrie being traded to the White Sox Danny Valencia will get every chance to be the every day third baseman for the A’s. Valencia was mostly used as a platoon bat, but when the A’s claimed him off waivers he played every day and most importantly, he hit. In 47 games he hit 11 homers with a .886 OPS. For his career he has a .237/.275/.389 slash line against righties, but last year he hit .285/.325/.556 with the lowest strikeout rate since 2011. In regards to hard hit contact he ranked 40th among all qualified players so it’s possible he hits 25-plus home runs. He’ll likely begin the year batting fourth and has a very good chance of staying in that spot all year.