Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 34 first basemen. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams.

Before I discuss the state of the position I wanted to note I included DH-only players with the first basemen. First base is where you’ll find power and after the top 6-7 they all provide the same value, but for different reasons.

At first I thought my Anthony Rizzo ranking was too high, but I’m projecting 11 stolen bases, which gives him a huge leg up over his contemporaries. Last year Rizzo had 17 stolen bases. The previous two seasons he had 11. If I change the projection to only five stolen bases he still ranks as the number three first baseman, but it’s a distant third. Rizzo is going to have many plate appearances with men on-base. Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist combined for a .358 OBP last year. Even if Zobrist falls off a little there are other hitters who can step into the top of the order provide a high OBP. Last year he scored 94 runs. I’m projecting 96, but I think that’s too low.

A lot of fantasy players love Edwin Encarnacion, but I’m very wary. I understand the love. He plays in a great hitters ballpark and easily the best lineup in baseball. However, after looking at last year there a lot of warning signs. For the first four months of the season he was hitting .241 with 19 home runs. What was the most troubling was his hard hit rate was 21.7 percent. From 2012-14 it was 28.5 percent. The drop off may sound like a lot, but that’s nearly a 32 percent drop. In the last two months he hit .344 with 20 home runs and a 36.4 percent hard hit rate. I do not like hitters whose value was dependent upon a short time frame, but if you look at his overall numbers it looks like a typical year for him. The bottom line is how someone evaluates his numbers is all about preference and for me there is a higher probability his value decreases than increases or stabilizes.

The Albert Pujols and Greg Bird projections assumes they play a full year. His projection may change dramatically depending on how looks in Spring Training. Bird probably begins the year in the minors, but if he gets called up he’s going to be on everyone’s priority list during the waiver period.

If Chris Carter plays a full year he’s going to h it 30-plus home runs with a batting average in the .220s, but my biggest reservation is he gets traded at the trade deadline and no longer receives everyday at-bats.

Two years ago everyone loved Wil Myers. He was the 2013 Rookie of the Year and he showed his minor league statistics were translating into the Majors. However, in 2014 he was only limited to 87 games due to an injury where he collided with Desmond Jennings. Last year he only played in 60 games due to a wrist injury. Myers is only 25 years old and will likely bat second or third so he’ll have an opportunity to score and drive in runs. The raw talent is certainly there. The question with him is will he be healthy? His current ADP is 213. At that price I’ll buy.

I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As Top 10 First Baseman:

I never believed in Chris Colabello last year but he proved me wrong because he kept hitting. From 2013-14, in 401 plate appearances his slash line was .214/.284/.364. Last year he hit .321 with 15 home runs in only 360 plate appearances. The number that stood out the most was the hard hit rate (24.5 percent). That number may not like much but that is the 33rd highest hard hit rate among qualified hitters last year. If he keeps up last years hard hit rate he could hit 25 home runs with 80-plus RBIs assuming he bats fifth all year. Edwin Encarnacion is basically a DH-only player and Justin Smoak is never going to figure out how to hit so there is a clear path to playing time for Colabello. His ADP is 328, which means he’s basically an after thought. He won’t be for me on draft day.

The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 24 catchers. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams and two catchers.

Overall, the state of position is as really down. Other than Buster Posey there is no consistency. Kyle Schwarber is my second catcher, but he’s far from a finished product and I could see many scenarios where he struggles for an extended part of the season before settling into a groove. With all the catcher defensive specific data available baseball teams are looking for defensive catchers rather than offensive first catcher. This trend makes the catcher landscape very muddled.

My strategy heading into my drafts, if I’m drafting in the back half, will be to draft Posey with my first pick because the drop off after him is immense and catcher is the only scare position. If I do not draft Posey based on current NFBC ADP Data I’ll mostly likely end up with Yan Gomes and JR Murphy.

I loved Gomes last year and I believe he’ll bounce back after an injury plagued season. With Murphy I’m banking on two things. First, that the Twins allow him to be the primary catcher. Second, that he’ll have a respectable average and hit 10-plus home runs. He has a short swing and a very good approach, which should allow for solid OBP.

I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As #1 Catcher:

The biggest reason why Travis d’Arnaud has not had a huge fantasy season is due to health. Last year it was elbow and hand issues. In 2014 it was a concussion. In his professional career he’s only played in 100-plus games three out of nine seasons. In terms of offensive talent he may be the second best hitter (after Posey) at the position. I’m probably too low on him, but I want to see how he looks in Spring Training. Also, the Mets probably make share a large part of the workload with Kevin Plawecki. If the 2016 season was played 100 times, 1-5 of those seasons he finishes the year as the number one catcher because he plays 130 games and hits .270 with 30 home runs.

In the yearly tradition of buy low trades the A’s acquired first baseman Yonder Alonso and lefty reliever Marc Rzepczynski for Drew Pomeranz and minor-leaguer Jose Torres. When I first saw the trade I thought it was misprint because the trade didn’t make sense for the A’s. My perception of the A’s was they struggled scoring runs, but that wasn’t the case. They ranked 20^th in home runs and were tied for 13^th in runs scored and they achieved that with Billy Butler clogging their DH spot.

Alonso is an oft-injured glove first player at a premium offensive position. He has only played more than 140 games once in his career (in 2012). Last May he went on the DL with a shoulder strain after making a diving stop. In September he landed on the 60-day DL with a lower back strain. In 2014 he was only limited to 84 games due to a sore right wrist and a right forearm strain.

From a fantasy perspective he’s going to have more real life value than fantasy. For the past three seasons he played in San Diego and it is possible the ballpark suppressed his numbers, but that’s not the case. The table below shows his home-road splits since joining the Padres in 2012.

If Alonso is able to play 140 games he’s primary fantasy asset will be the batting average. His hard hit rate suggests he should hit about 15 home runs, but his extremely high ground ball rate will limit his home run potential to 12-13 home runs. Based on how the lineup is constructed he is going to hit in the bottom third of the order limiting his run scoring and RBI potential.

The addition of Alonso makes a Mark Canha a platoon player entering Spring Training, but I bet he plays in just as many games as last year (124). First of all he’s going to play against lefties and both Alonso and the incumbent left fielder Coco Crisp are very good bets to hit the DL (I don’t see Crisp playing more than 60 games). If Canha gets consistent playing time he hit atop the order. During the last two months of the season Canha was hitting second against both righties and lefties. If Canha played every day he could hit 20 home runs with a .260 batting average so he will have sneaky fantasy value in deeper mixed formats even if he doesn’t have a starting job at the start of the year.

In regards to Pomeranz, he’s going to be a dynamite lefty out of the bullpen. I’ve said for over a year he’s a reliever because he’s a two-pitch pitcher and doesn’t have the fastball command to go through a lineup three times consistently. He’s currently the only lefty in the bullpen so he’s not likely to earn saves, but the Padres bullpen doesn’t have a “proven closer” and he did close briefly for the A’s last year. I wouldn’t be shocked if he had a couple of spot starts, which will be valuable if he’s pitching at home.