Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Sunday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

I may be on an island, but I’m still buying Kevin Gausman especially this week when he’s a two start, starter. Both the Twins and Mets have OBP issues. His 4.47 ERA as a starting pitcher this year isn’t a true indicator of his true talent level; he can still miss a ton of bats and most importantly, his hard hit rate, as a starter, is average so the ERA should be lower than what it is.

Like Gausman, I’m staying on the Chris Tillman bandwagon. The biggest reason is he ranks in the top 25 percent among starting pitchers in hard hit rate allowed. Also, the Athletics offense has not been very good since the All-Star Break; they have the second lowest wOBA (only the Braves are worse).

For his career, Mike Leake has a 3.42 ERA and 1.23 WHIP away from the Reds home ballpark. Now he gets play behind one of the best defenses in the majors. He’s a sneaky play in weekly formats.

Chris Bassitt has been on a great run of late, posting a 2.44 ERA, 0.948 WHIP and 21.4 percent strikeout rate since being recalled from Triple-A. I’ve seen some of his starts and he’s benefits from being effectively wild.  He has a great matchup against the Rays, one of the worst hitting teams against righties, which is why I’m rolling with him another week.

After watching Trevor Bauer for 3-4 years I’m convinced there is no way to predict how he is going to perform from start to start. He has #1 starter stuff, but below average command and control, which leads to him walking 10 percent of the batter he faces (since July the walk rate is only 7.3 percent). He generates average hard hit rates, but since he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher he allows a lot of home runs. This week he goes to Boston and to Yankee Stadium. You couldn’t think two worse parks for him to go to (Toronto is probably worse), but since his raw stuff is so good he could dominate. He could also get lit up like he did in his previous two starts.

I love Andrew Heaney’s first start against the White Sox and hate the Blue Jays matchup. For this week he may have 7-12 strikeouts with a 3.50 ERA, but since the hard hit rate is above average I wouldn’t be surprised if the Blue Jays righty heavy lineup light him up.

Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings. I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.

The rankings are slanted toward a GPP, but the write-ups provide (hopefully) the information necessary to fill out a double-up lineup. My approach to ranking pitchers is broken into three parts.

1. How good is the pitcher? This may sound overly simplistic but I’ll never use a pitcher unless I believe he has a high likelihood he can get outs consistently. I use three statistics primarily to evaluate a pitcher: strikeout rate, hard hit rate and hit distribution (ground balls and fly balls). Strikeouts are not the end all, be all because there are different expectations based on the pitchers salary. Strikeouts are very important, but they need to evaluated and rooted in the second part.
2. What is the pitcher’s salary? There different point expectation levels for each salary range. A pitcher with five digits implies he is going to provide 27-plus points (usually with a lot of strikeouts) and the likelihood of that are high. A pitcher below $7,000 means expectations should be lowered. Therefore, expect 10-14 points with the expectation he could score in the single digits. When evaluating a pitcher below $7,000 I’m looking for a quality start with moderate strikeouts (4-5) over 6-plus innings. The reason why is these pitchers may not have the ceiling as the pricier pitchers, but they may the higher ROI potential. By that I mean, if a $6,500 pitcher provides 19 points that’s better than a $11,000 pitcher providing 27 points because the ROI (return on investment) is better. Or in other words, you’re making more points per dollar spent.
3. Who is the pitcher playing and where is the game? Everyone uses Coors as an example as a place where to not choose a pitcher, but let’s take it a little further. Obviously you don’t want a pitcher pitching in Coors, but what about a fly ball pitcher in Milwaukee? I’m not using a fly ball pitcher in that ballpark because the likelihood of home run is higher than in another ballpark like Oakland or Minnesota. The initial team statistics I look at is wOBA and hard hit rate against the handedness pitcher. These statistics quickly provide insight into how effective the offense is. It’s very important to take these statistics into context because players may have been injured and come back into the lineup. The next team statistic is strikeout and hit distribution against the handedness pitcher. For example, if a team hits a lot of ground balls, the pitcher generates a lot of ground balls and is only priced $6,500 odds are I’m going to use him.

Pitcher Rankings

Corey Kluber: $10,600 – @MIN

For the year, against righties, the Twins are 20^th in hard hit rate and have the eighth highest strikeout rate. Among the four aces going, Kluber has the best chance for the highest ROI.

Trevor May: $5,800 – CLE

I recommended May on June 3 at the Red Sox and he proceeded to throw seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts. The reason why I recommended in June are still the same reason I’m recommending him on Friday.

Robbie Ray: $7,500 – @ATL

My ranking of Ray has more to do with the Braves lineup than Ray’s skillset. Even though I do not believe in Ray’s 3.13 ERA as his true talent level, he’s still no slouch. He is a fly ball pitcher that’s not suited for his home ballpark (4.45 ERA at home compared to 2.18 on the road). The Braves lineup isn’t very good even after the acquisitions of Michael Bourn (he probably will not be in the lineup against Ray) and Nick Swisher. Combine that with the fact the Braves ballpark is pitcher friendly means Ray could have a nice outing.

Max Scherzer: $14,600 – @SF

Of all the pitchers going on Friday Scherzer has the best chance to put up the most fantasy points. However, he costs $4,000 more than Corey Kluber. Scherzer has tremendous upside, but Kluber is almost nearly as high considering they’re both pitching in pitcher friendly parks. Also, the Giants have the fifth lowest strikeout rate against righties.

Dallas Keuchel: $11,000 – DET

Similar to David Price, I don’t see the upside with Keuchel given the matchup. Against lefties the Tigers have the second highest wOBA and third highest hard hit rate. You may be thinking Miguel Cabrera inflated those statistics and you would right, but not as much as you think. Since Cabrera has been on the DL the Tigers are seventh and fifth in WOBA and hard hit rate.

David Price: $12,300 – NYY

For the year the Yankees have the third highest wOBA against lefties and for his career he has a 4.23 ERA and 1.323 WHIP. Combine that with the fact his strikeout rate is only 20^th among qualified starting pitchers. I don’t see the upside at his price point.

Nathan Karns: $7,700 – @TEX

On Thursday’s Baseball Professor Podcast I said Karns could be a tremendous value because in his last ten starts he has a 3.12 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. I made that statement because I thought he would be priced in the $6,000s. However, with other better options on both the high end and low end Karns is someone I’m staying away from.

Alex Wood: $7,600 – CIN

For the year, against lefties, the Reds have the fourth lowest hard hit rate. The upside is limited because the Reds have the tenth lowest strikeout rate.

J.A. Happ: $6,600 – @NYM

Since June Happ has a 5.93 ERA and 1.628 WHIP. During that span he has a .355 BABIP and a 64.8 percent strand rate. He’s been unlucky, but he’s a fly ball pitcher that has the best chance of success in spacious ballparks, which Citi Field is.

Julio Teheran: $7,000 – ARI

Since July Teheran has a 3.74 ERA and 1.292 WHIP, which is far better than the 4.94 ERA and 1.405 WHIP before. I’m still staying away because the walk rate since July is higher than before (9.4 percent and 8.5 percent respectively).

Danny Duffy: $5,200 – LAA

Duffy has given up three or more runs in eight of his 17 starts this year and he’s only had more than five strikeouts twice. Duffy’s stuff is good enough he could score 20-plus points, but the odds of that happening are very low.

Tyson Ross: $8,400 – @COL

A pitcher in Colorado. Nope. If there’s a pitcher that could do well in that ballpark, it’s Ross because he’s an extreme ground baller and strikeout pitcher.

Bartolo Colon: $6,400 – PIT

Since May Colon has a 5.22 ERA and 1.367 WHIP.

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

After making his Major League debut Luis Severino has become the flavor of the month. He has really good raw stuff, but with what I saw he’s still far away from being a consistent fantasy contributor. Since he’s still fairly raw he’s going to have really good outings and really bad outings. Odds are if you used a lot of FAAB to get him you’re probably going to start regardless.

The Nationals are making the right move putting Doug Fister in the bullpen and letting Joe Ross stay in the rotation. In hindsight it’s kind of laughable the Nationals even entertained the idea to send Ross back to the minors to keep Fister in the rotation. Like Severino, Ross is still fairly raw and susceptible to left handed batters, but he’s a ground ball machine and generate a lot of strikeouts.

I watched Henry Owens start and like the other rookies I’ve mentioned he has a lower ceiling, but I still like what I saw. Any time I see a lefty the first thing I look at is whether or not he can get righties out. What impressed me was the changeup and it’s more than good enough to get righties out consistently. The Mariners lead the majors in hard hit rate against righties so his upside is limited, but if he has better fastball command he could have a really nice start.

I love Aaron Brooks in his home starts because he’s a strike thrower and generates a lot of fly balls. That combination works great in Oakland’s stadium, but I would be very wary in his next start (at Toronto). I bet he allows 1-3 home runs.