Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

Chris Tillman continues to look great. I wrote a few days ago Tillman is back to the pitcher he was the previous three seasons at Baseball Professor.

After watching Aaron Nola’s Major League debut I could not have been more impressed. He can throw all three pitches for strikes and he can also throw any of them out of the zone to generate swings and misses. The biggest worry about Nola is the fastball velocity declined dramatically after the fourth inning, going from 92-93 mph to 89-90. Its only one start so I’m not putting a lot of stock into that yet. From a fantasy perspective it’s going to be difficult to earn wins, but he’s going to be at least an average contributor in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts the rest of the year.

In eight starts this year Taylor Jungmann has only allowed more than two earned runs once … and that start was in Colorado. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he has been really good at generating ground balls and a lot of weak contact. His hard hit rate is so low he ranks in the top 20 percent among qualified pitchers. With the trade of Aramis Ramirez it looks as though the Brewers have begun selling off some of their players, which will make it harder to earn victories. However, if you’re looking for quality starts Jungmann is your man.

Mike Bolsinger is very similar to Chris Heston in that they’re solid pitchers, but struggle against left handed hitters. The Angels’ best hitters are righties, which makes Bolsinger a sneaky stream option in formats as shallow as 10-team mixed leagues. Heston has a good matchup against the Brewers, but he finishes the week in Texas and I do not believe it’s going to go well. If you’re in a deeper mixed league you probably have to start him; if he gives up 3-4 earned runs I would be happy.

Jose Fernanez has pitched great so far and if you own him you’re going to continue to use him. What I will (continue to) say is pitchers in their first year back from a TJ are going to be unpredictable with their command and will be subject to blow up starts. Example, just look at Matt Harvey’s 2015 season.

Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings. I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.

The rankings are slanted toward a GPP, but the write-ups provide (hopefully) the information necessary to fill out a double-up lineup. My approach to ranking pitchers is broken into three parts. *when I wrote this the Nationals, Giants and Red Sox did not name their starting pitcher for Friday.

1. How good is the pitcher? This may sound overly simplistic but I’ll never use a pitcher unless I believe he has a high likelihood he can get outs consistently. I use three statistics primarily to evaluate a pitcher: strikeout rate, hard hit rate and hit distribution (ground balls and fly balls). Strikeouts are not the end all, be all because there are different expectations based on the pitchers salary. Strikeouts are very important, but they need to evaluated and rooted in the second part.
2. What is the pitcher’s salary? There different point expectation levels for each salary range. A pitcher with five digits implies he is going to provide 27-plus points (usually with a lot of strikeouts) and the likelihood of that are high. A pitcher below $7,000 means expectations should be lowered. Therefore, expect 10-14 points with the expectation he could score in the single digits. When evaluating a pitcher below $7,000 I’m looking for a quality start with moderate strikeouts (4-5) over 6-plus innings. The reason why is these pitchers may not have the ceiling as the pricier pitchers, but they may the higher ROI potential. By that I mean, if a $6,500 pitcher provides 19 points that’s better than a $11,000 pitcher providing 27 points because the ROI (return on investment) is better. Or in other words, you’re making more points per dollar spent.
3. Who is the pitcher playing and where is the game? Everyone uses Coors as an example as a place where to not choose a pitcher, but let’s take it a little further. Obviously you don’t want a pitcher pitching in Coors, but what about a fly ball pitcher in Milwaukee? I’m not using a fly ball pitcher in that ballpark because the likelihood of home run is higher than in another ballpark like Oakland or Minnesota. The initial team statistics I look at is wOBA and hard hit rate against the handedness pitcher. These statistics quickly provide insight into how effective the offense is. It’s very important to take these statistics into context because players may have been injured and come back into the lineup. The next team statistic is strikeout and hit distribution against the handedness pitcher. For example, if a team hits a lot of ground balls, the pitcher generates a lot of ground balls and is only priced $6,500 odds are I’m going to use him.

Pitcher Rankings

Noah Syndagaard: $9,300 – @STL

I’ve been saying for a few weeks Syndagaard has been underpriced and now the salary jumps, but he’s still underpriced. His hard hit rate is 11 percent, which is the second lowest among qualified starting pitchers. The strikeout rate is tenth best and the walk rate is the 21^st best. The offense probably won’t score many runs, but you’re getting a quality start with a strikeout per inning.

Sonny Gray: $9,600 – MIN

Other than Clayton Kershaw, Gray may be the safest pitcher. By that mean, the odds of him providing 17-20 points is extremely high.

Clayton Kershaw: $13,600 – @WSH

Quick question: who is the Nationals second best hitter currently on the 25 man roster? Yunel Escobar? Danny Espinosa? My initial impression of Kershaw’s salary was it was too high, but in fact it could be priced just right. If you remove the first two games of the year he has a 2.52 ERA, 0.949 WHIP with a 33.6 percent strikeout rate and 5.1 percent walk rate. At his price point he’s better cash game play, but he should be almost a lock to a 27-plus point performance. However, at his price point he needs to score in the 30s.

Jose Fernandez: $10,200 – PHI

Fernandez has been great in first two starts back, but like with Matt Harvey there is going to be inconsistency. I wouldn’t be surprised if Fernandez puts up the most points, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies light him up like they did to Michael Pineda.

Drew Hutchison: $6,700 – TB

I wrote a full write-up on Hutchison here. If he’s ever going to be startable in a GPP then this is the matchup. The Rays have the fourth lowest hard hit average and fifth lowest wOBA. What’s funny is Hutchison has actually been better against lefties than righties this year, which has been due the lack of effectiveness of the slider. Since 2014 he’s been a much better pitcher at home than on the road: 3.63 ERA and 1.162 WHIP at home compared to 5.63 ERA and 1.475 WHIP on the road.

Lance Lynn: $9,200 – NYM

Even though he’s had four starts from coming off the DL with forearm tightness, I’m still worried he may not finish the game. At this point in the year most starting pitchers are not 100 percent, but it’s something I cannot ignore with Lynn. He currently has a 1.287 WHIP and 2.90 ERA. The WHIP tells me he’s been lucky with the ERA. I’m concerned about the fly ball tendencies and the fact the Mets have the fifth highest fly ball rate against righties. Even though the Mets offense is below average there’s a good chance Lynn allows a home run.

Trevor Bauer: $8,500 – @CIN

Against righties, the Reds have the third lowest hard hit rate and the 16^th best wOBA. They also have the sixth lowest strikeout rate and 12^th best walk rate. At any time Bauer could score the most points of any pitcher, but based on the Reds team statistics the upside for Bauer is limited.

Ubaldo Jimenez: $7,600 – DET

Despite the narrative being bandied about in the media, Jimenez has actually improved his command and he has the lowest walk rate of his career (7.7 percent). The walk rate still puts him in the bottom 25 percent among qualified starting pitchers, but since his strikeout rate is in the top 25 percent (23.4 percent) and the ground ball rate is average Jimenez has value. This is an example where looking at the team statistics is futile because Miguel Cabrera is out and he’s been replaced with a below average player. The best Tigers hitters don’t have major platoon splits so this game is going to be a tossup.

Collin McHugh: $7,700 – TEX

My initial impression of McHugh was he would be an easy pass because the Rangers are very left handed and therefore, mash righties. However, McHugh has been better against lefties than righties; .275 wOBA compared to .295 respectively. Since the blowup start against the Mariners on June 13, he has been very good: 3.15 ERA, 1.107 WHIP with a 20.4 percent strikeout rate. Despite all the numbers McHugh is only a roto play at this point. If he was priced the $6,000s I would take a shot in a GPP.

Robbie Ray: $5,900 – SF

Ray could be nice value because the Giants lineup could have as many as four lefties in the lineup. Ray does very well against lefties, but he allows a lot of hard contact against righties. Depending on the lineup I would stack the Giants righties against Ray. If the Giants have four lefties in the lineup Ray may be worth a gamble in a GPP format.

Anibal Sanchez: $8,200 – BAL

Sanchez has similar strikeout and walk rate numbers as Ubaldo Jimenez. He also has just as good of a chance of winning the ballgame too. The Tigers offense may be marginally better than the Orioles, but the Orioles bullpen is better. Therefore, Sanchez is overpriced.

James Shields: $9,100 – COL

Shields has a 4.01 ERA pitching in one of the best pitcher ballparks in the majors and one of the divisions for pitching. A big part of that is the 17.9 percent HR/FB rate, but if you watch him pitch this isn’t the same guy as a year or two ago. The Rockies’ offense struggles on the road, but he’s given up four or more runs in six of his 19 starts; also, he’s given up 1 or less earned runs only five times. Sonny Gray has given up four or more earned runs twice and has allowed 1 or less runs ten times (out of 18 starts) … and he’s done that pitching in the AL. Therefore, he’s highly unpredictable and is priced too high.

Jake Odorizzi: $8,700 – @TOR

Odorizzi is a start in roto formats, but for DFS. He’s a fly ball pitcher, pitching in one of the best home run ballparks in the majors.

Mike Montgomery: $6,400 – @NYY

I wrote an extensive write-up on Montgomery here. Needless to say I’m not a believer in the talent level. Specifically, he’s a real life number five starting pitcher on a below average team. His best role would be in relief as lefty specialist.

Yesterday I wrote about hitters that should improve in the second half so it only makes sense to write about hitters that will regress. If you have any questions you can reach me on Twitter.

Michael Brantley – I’m cheating a little bit here because I don’t believe he’s going to decline or improve and here’s why. To begin the season Brantley essentially began the year on the DL (he only played two the first two weeks of the season) with back spasms. Since becoming an everyday player this is his lowest hard hit rate and there are no signs that indicate it’s going to improve the rest of the year. He’s going to hit third the rest of the year and he is still going to be a five category player, but I only see 5-7 home runs.

Xander Bogaerts – at the time of his call-up the scouting reports suggested he would hit for a lot of power, but that hasn’t manifested yet. His hard hit rate ranks in the bottom 25% among qualified hitters. This indicates his batting average has been a result of a high BABIP. The high BABIP is mostly due to playing at home (table below).

At first I wanted to recommend streaming him when he’s at home, but since the shortstop position is so inept that even when the batting average regresses he’ll still be better than anything you’ll find on the waiver wire. My recommendation would be to trade for a shortstop that’s undervalued. Every year Erick Aybar is always underrated but always finish in the top ten among shortstops. He doesn’t dominate one category. Instead, he provides slightly above average production in every category.

Nick Hundley – other than Stephen Vogt, Hundley has been the biggest surprise at the catcher position; providing moderate production in every category. The most valuable statistic he’s provided this season has been the .309 batting average. His hard hit rate is 16.2%, which is below average and most importantly, is the lowest of his career. There are 91 players (with 150 plate appearances) with a hard hit rate that low or lower and their cumulative batting average is .243.

He plays half of his games in Coors which helps tremendously; he has a slash line of .349/.376/.556. On the road his slash line is .264/.319/.364. At home he has a .382 BABIP, which is 30 points higher than the team as a whole at home so regression is going to occur at home. I think he’s going to continue to hit at home, but at the same clip. If you can afford the roster spot you should stream him when he’s only at home.

Nelson Cruz – for the first two months of the season last year Cruz had a .315/.383/.675 slash line with 20 home runs. From June on he had a .249/.308/.4516 slash line and 20 home runs. Last year he benefitted from a great first two months and regressed. The same thing is happening this year.

For the first two months this season he put up a .335/.392/.660 slash line with 18 home runs. Since that point .269/.347/.381 slash line and only three home runs. The primary driver of the .308 batting average is being driven against left handed pitching: .388 batting average with a .422 BABIP. The batting average is going to regress and I don’t see more than 10-12 home runs the rest of the year.

Stephen Vogt – this recommendation is purely based on what the Athletics do at the trade deadline. The majority of at-bats Vogt gets are between the 2-4 position, which is extremely rare for catchers. If he gets traded he’ll likely be playing for a contender and likely bat further down the lineup, lowering his RBI and run scoring opportunities.

Also, he benefitted from a great April: .348/.429/.606 slash line with a .358 BABIP. Since that point he’s a .268/.357/.465 player (.299 BABIP). Vogt will likely hit 9-13 home runs the rest of the year, but the batting average will be in the .260-.270 range.

Mike Moustakas – like Stephen Vogt, Moustakas benefitted greatly from a great first month of the season: .356/.420/.522 slash line with a .377 BABIP. Since the first moth of the season he’s hitting .271/.325/.386 with a .290 BABIP, only four home runs and no stolen bases. If you had him from day one you’re extremely happy, but it’s time to move on.

Billy Burns – among players with at least 250 plate appearances, Burns has the lowest hard hit rate. He currently has a .348 BABIP. He’s also very fast, so the BABIP isn’t as high as it looks. Combine all three data points he will most likely regress in the second half. He’ll probably be a .270/.315/.350 hitter, which still has value. However, if he’s hitting at the clip how long will he be able to bat leadoff? The A’s do not have prototypical leadoff hitter so unless he falls off dramatically he should stay at the leadoff spot. However, if he has a bad 2-3 weeks after the break, I wouldn’t be surprised he gets the Billy Hamilton treatment and he’s batting ninth.