Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings. I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.

The rankings are slanted toward a GPP, but the write-ups provide (hopefully) the information necessary to fill out a double-up lineup. With so many top tier pitchers going it may be more advantageous to play a double-up than a GPP because it’s going to be difficult to gain a competitive edge with starting pitchers. However, if you’re contrarian and select two low priced pitchers and they provide 16-20 points each you will have a great opportunity to do well.

Tier I: The Aces

Noah Syndagaard: $8,100 – CIN

The ERA and WHIP indicate Syndagaard has been very hittable, but hart hit rate is 11.8 percent, which would be the fifth lowest among qualified starting pitchers. Combine that statistic with his .362 BABIP means he’s been extremely unlucky and he should have a much better ERA and WHIP. He’s still young and is not as predictable as other pitchers in this category, but he’s the best value on Friday.

Francisco Liriano: $10,000 – ATL

Liriano has a great matchup, which is even better with Freddie Freeman on the DL. Against lefties the Braves the fourth lowest hard hit rate and are next to last in wOBA. The biggest reason why I’m weary about using Liriano is because he’s less consistent. Three times (out of 14 starts) this year he’s given up five runs or more. Jake Arrieta has not given up more than four runs all year. Liriano has the second lowest hard hit rate among qualified starting pitchers and the 12^th best ground ball rate. He’s my number two pitcher because of the price point, strikeout potential, matchup and upside. If I was playing in a one pitcher format Liriano would be my number one pitcher.

Jake Arrieta: $9,800 – @STL

Despite having some injuries the Cardinals offense has not sputtered. In the past month, against righties, they are 11^th in hard hit rate and seventh in wOBA. The biggest reason why Arrieta is my number two pitcher is because he leads all qualified starting pitchers in hard hit rate (8.9 percent). The next best is Francisco Liriano 11 percent. The Cubs will allow Arrieta to throw deep into the game (he’s averaging 103 pitches per start), which gives him an advantage over other pitchers. The Cardinals matchup is an average one, but he’s still my number three pitcher because he’s been more consistent. He does have less upside than Corey Kluber and Francisco Liriano though, which means in he’s a better play in a double-up format.

Corey Kluber: $10,300 – @BAL

In Kluber’s last five starts he’s been very ordinary, posting a 3.97 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 24.6 percent strikeout rate and 7.2 percent walk rate. I’ve watched his starts and his problem has been the sinker. He’s been leaving it in the middle of the zone and hitters have been making a ton of hard contact, hitting the ball with authority for line drives. If I can see this I bet the Indians coaching staff has noticed this too and Kluber is probably working on it.

The Orioles, against righties, are tenth in the majors in wOBA and fourth in hard hit rate so if you roster Kluber you’re absorbing a lot of downside if he hasn’t fixed the command of the sinker. However, if he has improved the command he could be provide the most points of any starting pitcher.

Tyson Ross: $9,100 – ARI

I’ve written about Ross extensively this year for DFS and he’s a high variance pitcher. Since his command is extremely loose you have no idea how well he’s going to perform from start to start. Even with a high walk rate he’s been able to be relatively successful because the extremely high ground ball rate and high strikeout rate.

The Diamondbacks, against righties, have the third highest ground ball rate, 15^th in wOBA, are 13^th in hard hit rate and 15^th in strikeout rate. Those are numbers may not be as relevant after Mark Trumbo was traded (you could also argue the opposite with the acquisition of Wellington Castillo).

Ross dominated (and had his best start of the year) the Diamondbacks six days ago so it’s very possible he does it again. You may be worried hitters have an advantage facing a pitcher twice in a short time frame, but that’s not the case.

Max Scherzer: $14,000 – @PHI

Scherzer has been the best pitcher in baseball this year and he gets a cake matchup against the Phillies. However, at his price point I have to pass. In order to even break even he needs to score 30-33 points, which is extremely difficult to do. If he doesn’t provide those points you’re at a net loss. The odds of him being very successful are high so he could be useful if you paired him with a cheap pitcher like Chad Bettis.

Johnny Cueto: $10,600 – @NYM

Earlier this week Cueto was skipped so he could extra rest. There are rumblings it was to rest his elbow, which is something a fantasy owner wants to hear. My biggest concern will he be able to finish the game? Since there are so many proven commodities starting today means I’m staying away despite a great matchup.

Tier II: Value Picks

Chad Bettis: $5,900 – @SF

A little more than a week ago I loved Bettis as a streaming and cheap DFS option against the Astros. Obviously that call blew up in my face, but he was very solid in his next outing. On the surface Bettis seems a fairly safe bet to provide 14-18 points because he’s provided at least five strikeouts in his last seven starts.

There are two major concerns I have. First, the Giants do not strikeout a lot; they have the fifth lowest in the majors. Second, he doesn’t pitch deep into games; he’s only averaging 5.2 innings per start. The Giants are the sixth lowest in pitchers per plate appearance so it’s possible he may be able to pitch deeper into the game.

With Nori Aoki out indefinitely the Giants lineup will take a big hit because they’re likely to use Gregor Blanco, which is a big downgrade. He doesn’t have the upside for 22-plus points, but he could be a safe for 15-19 points.

John Lackey: $7,800 – CHC

In regards to DraftKings scoring I don’t see much a difference in output between Lackey and Chad Bettis. I think they’re both relatively a safe bet for 15-19 points. However, they’ll achieve their points in different ways. Lackey will go deep into the game and get many strikeouts while it’s the opposite for Bettis. I give Bettis the edge not only because of price point, but also due to his higher ceiling. Lackey is obviously safer and has a longer track record, but the ROI isn’t there.

Nate Eovaldi: $5,300 – @HOU

I love Eovaldi at this price point for several reasons. First, the Astros strikeout a lot. Second, the game is in Houston and not New York. Third, the lineup can be very righty heavy, which is great because Eovaldi cannot get lefties out.

What’s troubling about Eovadli is he’s allowing the hardest contact of his career and even though the Astros strikeout a lot, when they make contact it’s very hard (tenth in the majors in hard hit rate against righties). In the past two seasons he’s only had nine or more strikeouts twice so he is a hail mary option, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he has a break out.

Anibal Sanchez: $8,700 – CWS

In Sanchez’s last eight starts he has a 23.4 percent strikeout rate, 6.9 percent walk rate, 1.109 WHIP and 3.93 ERA. With a WHIP that low he’s been unlucky with the BABIP and/or strand rate.

Some fantasy owners are going to use Sanchez because he’s facing the White Sox, one the lowest scoring teams in the majors. In the past month they’re dead last in wOBA and hard hit rate. However, in the past month their BABIP (.270) is the lowest in majors and it is not a direct result of the low hard hit rate. The A’s have the next lowest hard hit rate and their BABIP is .327. The White Sox is not good, but they’re not an auto start offense (from a pitchers perspective).

Mark Buehrle: $6,500 – TEX

In the past month the Rangers are last in wOBA and hard hit rate against lefties. With Adrian Beltre back in the lineup those numbers do not carry as much weight as they used to. If the Rangers feature a lefty heavy lineup Buehrle could have a really good night.

Wei-Yin Chen: $8,300 – CLE

When I first saw the price point I was shocked that it was as high as it was. However, the more I thought about it, the more I found the price defensible. Obviously he’s been lucky this year with the strand rate and BABIP (he has a FIP of 3.93), but I believe the low BABIP is maintainable. His hard hit and soft hit rates are at career highs.

However, I’m still buying Chen at his price point because the Indians are actually a good hitting team against lefties. They have the third highest hart hit average and have the seventh highest wOBA in the majors against lefties.

Jose Quintana: $7,400 – @DET

I wrote about Quintana a couple of weeks ago when he was facing the Tigers. I didn’t like the matchup then and I still do not like it. If you’re in a double-up format he could be useful because he’s moderately safe bet for 10-17 points.

Jesse Hahn: $6,600 – KC

In Hahn’s last eight starts he has a 2.58 ERA, 1.051 WHIP, 15.3 percent strikeout rate and 6.9 percent walk rate. Like mentioned a week ago, I’m not using Hahn because doesn’t have any upside in regards to strikeouts. Also, he’s facing a team with the lowest strikeout rate in the majors.

In tonight’s slate I am going to use Jordan Zimmerman (home to the Braves) and Clay Buchholz (home to the Orioles) as my two starting pitchers. I love Gerrit Cole and he’s my number one option, but everyone is going to use him in a GPP format.

Zimmerman has been very hittable this year, but his hard hit average is only slightly higher than last year, which indicates the .340 BABIP has more to do with bad luck than him being very hittable. I’ve seen a couple of his starts and his command been off, which has led to balls getting hit hard. However, the Braves will not have Freddie Freeman in the lineup so Zimmerman should be able to coast through this Triple-A offense.

The reason why I’m using Buchholz is fairly simple. Blind resume time. There are three pitchers and one of them is Buchholz. Can you pick which one is him?

Player A is David Price and C is Felix Hernandez. I was shocked myself when I took a deep dive into Buchholz’s numbers. He’s basically performed just as well as Price and Hernandez but his salary on DraftKings is $3,500-4,000 less. Obviously Buchholz carries a lot more risk because on a 1-10 scale for consistency he rates as a two, but at his salary he provides the highest ROI opportunity (also, you could make the argument Price and Hernandez are priced too high and I would agree with you).

Other Pitchers I considered:

Mike Bolsinger – @CHC

Bolsinger falls into the Tyson Ross and Carlos Martinez class of pitcher in that they’re high strikeout, high walk and high ground ball rate pitchers. However, Bolsinger is a far lesser than pitcher because his hard hit rate is 18.4 percent, which is league average. The fact he’s facing the Cubs making him an intriguing option. Against righties, they have the second highest strikeout rate, seventh lowest hard hit rate and the lowest in-play rate.

Roenis Elias – KC

I’ve been saying for a couple of weeks Elias is going to regress and he hasn’t. The Royals are an above average offense against lefties in terms of wOBA and hard hit rate. Elias is a fly ball pitcher so pitching at home increases his value. The Royals do not hit a lot of ground balls so a lot of balls will be hit in the air. Elias’ hard hit rate is 19.5 percent which is below average, which means I think he’ll allow 1-2 home runs.

Jimmy Nelson – NYM

I considered Nelson because he’s facing the Mets offense, but he’s been a far less effective pitcher in his last seven starts than his first seven starts (table below).

If you’re playing in DFS on Monday you’re probably going to use either (or both) Clayton Kershaw or Felix Hernandez (for the record, Kershaw is my number one pitcher). If you don’t use both pitchers you’re most likely going to win or lose, because of the short slate, on your second pitcher performs. Below are my starting pitcher rankings. Also, all my analysis in regards to team based statistics are the same handedness of the pitcher.

Michael Pineda

This past Wednesday I wrote I was hesitant to use Pineda because after a stellar start to the year he was very average. He pitched great against the Marlins that night, but I still have reservations if he will continue to improve upon his last start. However, he’s facing the Phillies and even if he’s only 75 percent of his true talent level he should do well. If you’re playing in a GPP at DraftKings I bet the majority owners will go with Pineda and either Kershaw or Hernandez so you may want to use another pitcher.

Hector Santiago

I’ve been hesitant to recommend Santiago because of the high walk rate, but in his last eight starts he only has 12 walks (6.2 percent walk rate). The Astros’ best hitters are righties, which implies they should mash lefties, but for the year they only have the tenth best hard hit rate against southpaws. Santiago is a fly ball pitcher and he’s pitching at home. The Astros have the seventh highest strikeout rate against lefties so if he can limit the amount of hard hit contact he should do well.

Drew Hutchison

In regards to upside, Hutchison’s upside is as high as any pitcher starting on Monday. I was extremely high on him entering the season, but after watching him struggle in most of his starts I’m backing off. The biggest reason why he’s struggled has been due to bad fastball command to righties. He was very successful last year throwing the fastball up in the zone, but this year when the catcher wants the fastball up he’s leaving it in the middle of the strike zone. What has me the most concerned is his plan of attack is always the same to righties: get ahead in the count with the fastball then throw sliders down and away.

The Rays are below average offense against righties (in both wOBA and hard hit rate). They also have the seventh highest strikeout rate and have the ninth worst in-play rate, which means they won’t put a lot of balls in-play and will strikeout a lot. The reason why I rated Hutchison ahead of Tommy Milone is because the true talent level discrepancy is wide.

Tommy Milone

Milone is a getting a lot of love in the fantasy community as a sneaky streaming option. Milone is pitching at home, which suits his talent level (i.e. he pitches to contact with well below average stuff and hopes the ballpark will suppress fly balls). Also, the White Sox have the lowest wOBA against lefties for the year. In fact its 42 points less than the next team. They also have the lowest hard hit rate (by 34 points) against lefties too. Milone doesn’t have good stuff so you’re playing with fire, but if there was ever a chance to use him and feel good about it it’s this matchup.

Trevor Bauer

At first glance I thought Bauer would be my number option because on a pure talent level he’s the best pitcher. The Tigers matchup is obviously not a good one, but it’s not as a bad as you may think. For the year, they’re only 11^th in wOBA and tenth in hard hit average. Part of the reason why the numbers could be suppressed was due to Victor Martinez hitting fourth for half of the season. Bauer’s stuff is good enough he could strikeout 10-plus, but since he walks so many hitters he’s going to be flirting with trouble the entire game.

Tsuyoshi Wada

In six starts Wada has been incredibly inconsistent regardless of the matchup. In his 2015 Wada struck out nine in 4.2 innings, but since then he hasn’t had more than six strikeouts. One reason why the strikeout totals have been down was due his low pitch counts, but in his last start he threw 107 pitches in seven innings. The Dodgers have the sixth highest hard hit average against lefties and since Wada walks too many hitter’s means I’m looking elsewhere.

Matt Andriese

Since Andriese is a ground baller he has a puncher’s chance to pitch well, but his hard hit rate would put him in the bottom 15 percent among starting pitchers (small sample caveat). If he wasn’t facing the Blue Jays I could be convinced he’s worth a start on a short slate, but the Blue Jays have the best offense in baseball.