Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

I was light with the pitcher analysis this week because I’m writing DFS pitcher rankings every day and I feel like I would just be repeating myself. My DFS rankings actually provide good write-ups about how well/poorly a pitcher is performing in general. Check out my Twitter account for links to my DFS rankings for the past few days.

I was extremely impressed with Matt Wisler’s debut Friday night against the Mets. There is a slight asterisk because it was the Mets, but the bottom line is he has the pitches that can get lefties and righties out and most importantly, his command looked big league ready.

I’ve been saying all season that I still believe in Collin McHugh, but at this point I no longer believe he can revert back to the player he was in 2014, but I still believe he can be a top 50 starting pitcher the rest of year. The primary reason is his swing and miss rate is 24.2, which puts him in the top 25 percent among qualified starting pitchers. The strikeouts should improve, but his hard hit rate is much higher than last year, which indicates when he’s missing, he’s missing badly.

I wrote a few days ago I have no idea what to make of Jimmy Nelson, but he’s facing the Mets and the matchup is worth a stream start in a 12-team mixed league. Also, he’s going to be a sneaky play in DFS formats. 

Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings. I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.

The rankings are slanted toward a GPP, but the write-ups provide (hopefully) the information necessary to fill out a double-up lineup. With so many aces going you’re going to win or lose based on which ace you use regardless of the format so I’m focusing on the aces and one. Also, I’m going to use two aces and find cheap hitters.

Tier I: The Aces

Clayton Kershaw: $12,900 – TEX

Yesterday Brett Anderson was my second best pitcher because how inept the Rangers offense has been since against lefties. Anderson didn’t do as well as I thought he would, but after the first inning he settled down and mowed down the Rangers. Kershaw is vastly superior to Anderson and the Rangers will be without a DH.

Carlos Martinez: $8,400 – @MIN

I bet a lot of fantasy players will have Martinez in their lineups as either their ace or second starting pitcher. The Twins have the second lowest wOBA, seventh highest strikeout rate and eighth lowest hard hit average in the majors against righties.

Martinez, in his last six starts, has been unbelievable. He has a 28.4 percent strikeout rate, 1.16 ERA and 1.0866 WHIP. He also has a 9.0 percent walk rate and if you’ve read me in the past I do not like using walkers. Martinez falls into the rare Tyson Ross class in that they strikeout and walk a lot of batters, but they do not get shelled because the incredibly high ground ball rate, which strands a lot of runners (Martinez’s strand rate during this stretch is 94.5 percent).

Some may call this a trap because Martinez has pitched so well and the Twins are so inept against righties. Others may say he is the perfect complement to their ace and has more upside some of the higher priced options.

Felix Hernandez: $10,300 – SF

I’ve been saying all season I don’t believe the Giants offense is very good, but at some point I have to start believing what the data is telling me. Against righties, they are sixth in the majors in wOBA, third lowest strikeout rate, and third best in-play rate. Basically, they don’t strikeout and put the ball in-play.

For the year Hernandez’s walk rate (7.7 percent) is the highest it’s been since 2008. You may be thinking his last blowup start inflated the walk rate, but it was 7.3 percent before that start. He’s been able to limit the damage from walks due an extremely high ground ball rate (60.2 percent), which is the highest it’s been since 2007.

The walk rate is concerning, but he’s not giving up a lot of hard contact. In fact, his hard hit rate is the lowest it’s been since 2011. Obviously he did look good in his last start against the Astros and I wonder what his price would have been if that start never occurred (I think his price would at least be $300-500 more).

David Price: $11,300 – @CIN

For the year the Reds have the fifth best wOBA against lefties. However, at the same time they’re only 23^rd in hard hit average (against lefties), which implies they’ve either been lucky with BABIP or lucky in the extra base hit department. The biggest question I have with Price is the strikeouts. His strikeout rate (21.9 percent) is the lowest it’s been since 2010. He has two starts where he’s struck out 11 or more, but he’s also had four starts where he’s struck out three or less. The Reds are in the middle of pack in regards to strikeout rate so it’s hard to see him having a big day in the strikeout department. In regards to hard hit rate it’s the second highest of his career, which indicates he has not been as dominant as the past.

Johnny Cueto: $10,000 – DET

You may think Cueto gets an edge because they game is in the NL and the Tigers lose the benefit of the DH. However, the Tigers have been using the likes of Tyler Collins and Rajai Davis at that position since Victor Martinez went on the DL so the loss of the DH will be minimal. Of all the pitchers mentioned Cueto is pitching the second best, but the matchup is extremely difficult.

Against righties, the Tigers have the fourth highest wOBA, eighth lowest strikeout rate and seventh highest hard hit average. What’s concerning is Cueto’s hard hit rate is the highest it’s been since 2010 and the ground ball rate is the lowest it’s been since his rookie year in 2008. Cueto could do really well, but the Tigers make a lot of hard contact and he’s allowing more hard contact.

Madison Bumgarner: $10,700 – @SEA

Bumgarner’s matchup is the most intriguing of all the pitchers I’m writing about because it’s difficult to understand the Mariners offense against lefties. They have the 13^th best wOBA, but they have the second best hard hit rate. They have the ninth highest in-play rate and they don’t strikeout (12^th lowest walk rate). The fact they’re making so much hard contact is the primary reason why I am ranking him below David Price. Another reason is when two pitchers are very close I will always lean towards the pitcher playing in the NL.

Similar to David Price, Bumgarner is not striking out as many batters as the previous couple of years and is a high variance pitcher in regards to his strikeout totals.

Michael Pineda: $8,600 – MIA

Pineda was really good to begin the season, but in his last five starts he has not been very good. The table below compares his first seven starts compared to this last five. The biggest thing you will notice is he’s striking out less batters and allowing much more hard contact.

For the year the Marlins are 25^th in wOBA, 17^th in hard hit average, and 15th in strikeout rate (all the statistics are against righties). Basically, the Marlins are an average offense and the addition of the DH doesn’t improve their offense (my guess is Ichiro will be the DH or he’ll play the outfield and maybe Giancarlo Stanton will be the DH). Pineda could have a great game, but I’m not counting on it.

Tier II: Value Pick

Jesse Chavez: $6,800 – SD

Chavez is not an ace, but I wanted to make special mention of him. The table below provides data for Chavez and two other pitchers mentioned in this article. Since this is a blind resume I removed the names, but what pitcher do you think is Chavez?

Do you have your choice? Player A is Chavez; B is David Price; C is Madison Bumgarner. I’m not indicating Chavez is as good as the two other pitchers, but his salary is nearly half, which means he could be a tremendous value.

Unlike the Marlins, the Padres will be aided greatly by the DH. I bet Matt Kemp gets pushed to DH and Melvin Upton Jr. will play the outfield. The Padres are an average offense against righties. On the road they have a .292 wOBA and .282 wOBA at home so the offense has been inept to below average. For the year they have seventh lowest hard hit average and eighth highest ground ball rate so when they make contact its weakly hit ground balls. Of all the pitchers mentioned Chavez may be the best value.

Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings for Wednesday, June 10. I’m only focusing on the late games. Specifically, pitchers playing in the night games, I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.

The rankings are slanted toward a GPP, but the write-ups provide (hopefully) the information necessary to fill out a double-up lineup. In my GPPs I’m going to use a combination of these pitchers: Dallas Keuchel, Trevor Bauer, Chad Bettis and Trevor May.

*I forgot to write about Michael Wacha. He would slot after Wei-Yin Chen. Tyson Ross would slot after Jake Arrieta.

Tier I: The Aces

Dallas Keuchel: $9,600 – COL

For the year the Rockies are only 23^rd in the majors I wOBA, which doesn’t sound that bad, but since they’ve played half their games in Colorado indicates their offense is extremely inept against lefties. I’ve been saying for a couple of weeks Keuchel is going to regress because the major reason why he’s performing so well is he’s generating a lot of ground balls and the Astros are using the defensive shift a lot and extremely well. However, I think in this game he avoids regression against the Rockies.

Trevor Bauer: $7,800 – @CHC

Bauer is the ultimate high risk, high reward pitcher. Command has been an issue throughout his professional career and unless you’re watching his bullpen session before the game there is no way to know what kind of command he’s going to have. Even if you do watch his bullpen session he still randomly loses command an inning per game. Against righties the Cubs are tied for the highest strikeout rate, are only 17^th in wOBA and seventh lowest hard-hit average. Lastly, the Cubs put the lowest percentage of balls in-play, which means if Bauer limits the walks he should have a big day.

Jake Arrieta: $9,400 – CLE

Of all the pitchers pitching on Monday Arrieta is the best pitcher from a real life perspective. He has a tough matchup against the Indians because they don’t strike out against righties (sixth lowest in the majors), have the tenth best wOBA and have the eighth highest in-play rate. Arrieta should have a good game, but the strikeouts will probably not be there and I don’t see an overly dominant outing occurring. Other than Dallas Keuchel he’s the safest pitcher, which means he’s a better double-up play, but in a GPP I want seven innings with 9-plus strikeouts.

Gio Gonzalez: $8,500 – @TB

If you look at Gonzalez’s ERA and WHIP you would think he’s having a down year, but he’s been incredibly unlucky – specifically with the .359 BABIP. You may say that a reason for the increased BABIP is the deprecation of his stuff, which is the reason why the strikeout rate is the lowest it’s been since 2010. The quality of his stuff is still there and the reason why the strikeout rate is down is because the strikeout rate is down to lefties (the reason why it’s down to lefties is he’s pitching to contact more with the fastball, which is why the ground ball rate is up. He doesn’t offer a lot of upside in regards to 10-plus strikeout games because he doesn’t pitch deep into games. The Rays are a mediocre offense against lefties so at his price point he’s a solid value.

Francisco Liriano: $10,000 – CWS

The White Sox offense has been a big disappointment this year and they’ve struggled badly against lefties (they have the lowest wOBA against lefties in the majors). If you remove his blow up start against the Twins he’s averaging a little less than seven innings per start so the odds of him going seven innings and striking out 10-plus are pretty good. The price point is a little rich for me, but I can understand the price point.

Masahiro Tanaka: 10,600 – @MIA

Since May 1, 2015 the Marlins have the third lowest wOBA against righties. Tanaka has pitched great in his two starts since coming off the DL. He’s pounding the strike zone and missing a lot of bats – his swing and miss percentage is in the top 25 percent of qualified starters. At his price point he has to deliver 25-plus points and I have reservations about his ability to do that. He’s not throwing a lot of pitchers – he threw 78 in his first start and 87 in the second. If he has only inning that requires a lot of pitches will he be able to throw 100 pitches? If not, he could only throw 5-6 innings. Based on how well he’s pitching and how inept the Marlins offense is, he should be able to do well, but there is a lot of downside too. If I’m paying for an ace I want security that he’ll provide a great outing and he doesn’t offer that.

Tier II: High Risk, High Reward

Chad Bettis: $6,000 – @HOU

In Bettis’ last five starts he has a 2.43 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 22.6 percent strikeout rate and 5.3 percent walk rate. To put the strikeout rate into perspective he’s had at least five strikeouts in every one of those games and has averaged six strikeouts per start. On top of that four of those games were in Colorado and he’s generating ground balls 46 percent of the time. He’s facing the team that strikes out the most in the majors. The odds of him striking out ten in seven innings is more realistic than you think.

Trevor May: $6,900 – @STL

May has pitched great in his last five outings, positing a 3.03 ERA, 1.041 WHIP, a 24.2 percent strikeout rate and 3.1 percent walk rate. If you read my work two weeks ago you wouldn’t be surprised about his breakout. With May its feast or famine with the strikeouts, but the Cardinals are dealing with a lot of injuries and the lineup is extremely top heavy. I see no indication the walk rate is going to suddenly revert back to the pre-2015 so May is a relatively safe play.

Noah Syndergaard: $8,200 – TOR

Syndergaard was incredibly unlucky in his last outing against the Giants as he allowed a lot of weak contact that found holes. I’ve watched all of his starts and he’s pitched much better than his ERA and WHIP would indicate. His hard hit average would be the eighth lowest among qualified starters. If he was facing any other team than the Blue Jays he would be my number pitcher, but the Blue Jays offense is the best in baseball and the risk is too much even at his low price point. If I was playing in a GPP format I would be extremely tempted to use him.

Wei-Yin Chen: $7,700 – @PHI

In regards to projected ERA and WHIP I don’t see any difference between Chen and Jesse Hahn. There are major differences. The price point is much higher because he’s facing the Phillies. Chen’s strikeout rate is up, but the Phillies have the seventh lowest strikeout rate in the majors against lefties. Second, Ryan Howard is being platooned against lefties, which is actually a positive for the Phillies lineup. There are two contrary statistics about the Phillies. First, they are 17^th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Second, they have the lowest hard-hit average against lefties. Chen has the 15^th lowest hard hit average allowed among qualified starting pitchers. Chen is safer than Hahn, but Hahn has the greater upside especially in terms of strikeouts.

Edison Volquez: $7,100 – @MIL

There’s no question Volquez has pitched really well and it looks as though 2014 wasn’t a fluke. It certainly helps to play behind either the best or second best defense in the majors. If you’ve read my work in the past you know I do not like using pitchers who walk a lot of batters. The Brewers don’t have overpowering offensive numbers, but their best players haven’t been in the lineup most of the year. Volquez is priced appropriately, but I rather take a chance on a pitcher with more upside.

Jesse Hahn: $6,400 – @SD

In Hahn’s last six starts he has a 3.08 ERA and 1.105 WHIP. He’s facing a very right handed lineup in San Diego, which makes him a very intriguing option, but I’m staying away. The primary reason is he’s not striking out batters. During those six starts he only has a 15.7 percent strikeout rate (25 strikeouts in 38 innings). The biggest reason why the strikeout rate has been down is due to the curveball. Last year that pitch had a 42 percent strikeout rate. In the past six games only ten percent. The command hasn’t been there and hitters are making much more contact against it, which is why I’m not high as high on him. The Padres have the fifth highest strikeout rate against righties so Hahn could have a big game.

Anibal Sanchez: $8,000 – CIN

On the surface Sanchez’s strikeout and walk numbers are similar to the numbers he put up in two of the past three seasons, but the quality of his pitches have lost a tick, which has contributed to the highest HR/FB rate he’s had since 2008. He’s been unlucky with the strand rate and the strikeout rate has climbed in his past four starts (24.6 percent strikeout rate). However, two of those starts came against the Cubs and Astros – the two highest strikeout teams in the majors. The upside for a 20-plus point performance is still possible, but at his price point I’m passing.

Carlos Rodon: $6,500 – @PIT

Very quietly Rodon has limited the walks in his past three starts; only five walks in 18.1 innings. Against lefties, the Pirates have the seventh lowest walk rate, fifth lowest wOBA and second highest strikeout rate. Those numbers may be a little deceiving as the Andrew McCutchen was hurt for the first month of the season. Since May the Pirates have only been average against lefties, which means the matchup doesn’t have as much upside as it looks on paper. I’m not buying Rodon yet because I want to see if he continues to limit the walks.

Tier III: No Thanks, I’ll Pass

Taijuan Walker: $7,900 – @SF

I’ve had reservations about Walker as a starting pitcher for two years and I’ve written about him extensively. The bottom line is I’m only using him in the best matchups. I’ve been saying all season the Giants offense isn’t very good, but they’re continuing to hit. The ballpark is great, but he’s facing an offense that’s hitting and he’s not throwing strikes consistently.