Fantasy Baseall Starting Pitcher Rankings: Week 11

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

I was light with the pitcher analysis this week because I’m writing DFS pitcher rankings every day and I feel like I would just be repeating myself. My DFS rankings actually provide good write-ups about how well/poorly a pitcher is performing in general. Check out my Twitter account for links to my DFS rankings for the past few days.

I have been saying for years if the Chris Archer can improve the quality of the changeup he’s going to become an ace. This years lefties have a slash line of .195/.234/.498 with a 32.3 percent strikeout rate. He’s throwing the changeup to lefties more than ever and he’s throwing it for strikes, which is allowing his other pitches to play-up. He will regress a little as the year progresses, but buying his breakout.

What starting pitcher has the lowest well-hit average against? Jake Arietta. The pitcher with the second lowest is Jose Quintana. I’ve been saying for two weeks he’s going to positively regress as the season progresses because he is inducing a lot of weak contact.

Chris Heston has the first no hitter for the year, but he’s far from a great pitcher. He was able to be successful against the Mets because he faced a right handed heavy lineup. Lefties have a .815 OPS against him compared to .570 against righties. The Dodgers have two good left handed hitters and Andre Ethier and Jimmy Rollins have their moments so this matchup has a lot of blow up opportunity, but with not a lot of good starting pitching I’ll take a risk on a pitcher who limits walks and generates a lot of ground balls.

With Justin Verlander coming off the DL I am going to wait at least two starts before I feel comfortable starting him in any situation. I want to see how good the raw stuff is and how well he’s commanding his pitches. I do not care about the velocity of the fastball, but what I do care about is how is he adapting to the decreased velocity.

Posted in Fantasy Baseball | Leave a comment

DraftKings/Streamer Pitcher Rankings for Wednesday, June 10

Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings for Wednesday, June 10. I’m only focusing on the late games. Specifically, pitchers playing in the night games, I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.

Must Starts

Matt Harvey: $10,700 – SF

Harvey against a Giants offense that is missing Hunter Pence is too good to pass up. Some fantasy players may be wary to use Harvey because the Mets offense was no-hit last night, but I’m not worried about Harvey performing well. If you remove Lucas Duda, the Mets are a bad Triple-A offense, which means it’s going to be a struggle for the Mets to score runs. However, it’s going to be more of challenge against above average pitchers like Chris Heston, but not against below average pitchers like Tim Hudson.

Jake Arrieta: $9,800 – @DET

If you look at any advanced statistic Arrieta is a top ten starting pitcher in the majors, but there is always a slight hesitation any time a pitcher faces the Tigers, who have the seventh highest wOBA and hard hit average against righties. Arrieta has a very high percentage of providing a quality start, but his point potential is limited and a lot lower than the pitchers in the Almost Starts category. Arrieta has more value in double up format and less in a GPP.

Almost Starts

Tyson Ross: $9,300 – @ATL

Ross has a high variance skill set. He walks a lot of batters, generates a lot of ground balls (the most in the majors) and has a well above average strikeout rate. I’ve been hesitant to recommend Ross in the past, but on paper this seems like a great the matchup. However, the Braves offense is not as inadequate as I thought. They had high BABIP April so their season data is a little muddled. If you look only from May until now they are 15th and 14th in the majors in wOBA and hard hit rate. Ross should be able to perform well, but he’s not a lock.

Trevor Bauer: $8,700 – SEA

I’ve been a fan of Bauer’s fantasy and real life potential for the past three seasons. However, I always have to say when you start him you’re playing with fire because he’s a high walk pitcher and can lose command of the strike zone from batter to batter. However, this year he’s pitched better as the season has progressed and now he’s facing an OBP challenged Mariners offense. The Mariners are 20th in the majors in walks (12th against righties), which is higher than I thought. Also, they have third highest strikeout rate against righties. The Mariners are three outcome offense and if Bauer limits the home runs he should do very well.

High Risk, High Reward

Jose Quintana: $6,800 – HOU

The Astros have the highest strikeout rate against lefties this season, but they’re tenth in hard hit average so it’s going to be feast or famine for Quintana. I’ve been on record that he should improve his ERA and WHIP because his underlying peripherals suggest he was going to positively regress.

Brett Anderson: $6,600 – ARI

For the year Anderson has a third best soft hit average among starting pitchers. Also, he has the second best ground ball rate. For the year, the Diamondbacks have the second highest ground ball rate in the majors; against lefties they’re fourth. He should be able to generate a lot of ground balls and if the BABIP gods are nice he should have a nice game.

Jesse Hahn: $6,900 – TEX

I said two weeks ago Hahn has pitched better than his ERA and WHIP would indicate. Since I wrote that, in three starts, he has a 1.64 ERA, 0.864 WHIP and 3.5 percent walk rate. On the downside, during that same stretch, he only has a 16.5 percent strikeout rate. With the Rangers middle of the order hitters being left handed this matchup is a neutral one.

Edison Volquez: $6,700 – @MIN

Despite their record I’m not a fan of the Twins offense. To this point they’ve been incredibly lucky. Example, for the year are 24th in the majors in wOBA and 29th in wOBA against righties. I’ve been on record on previous DFS rankings that I’m not a fan of Volquez’s skill set, but against this matchup he is worth looking at.

Jered Weaver: $7,100 – @TB

The reason why Weaver could be useful is the ballpark and the lineup he’s facing. Weaver has a fly ball lean, but the ballpark is one of the best at limiting home runs. Also, the Rays have the second lowest hard hit rate and are 22nd in wOBA against righties in the majors.

Wei-Yin Chen: $7,000 – BOS

Since he’s a lefty and doesn’t throw an adjective that’s mostly used to describe him is crafty, but he’s better than that. Since he plays in a hitter’s ballpark you would think he has a wide home-road platoon split, but he has basically the same stats at home and on the road. The Red Sox are 25th in the majors wOBA and 23rd in hard hit rate against lefties. Chen has a fly ball lean, which makes him dangerous in that ballpark, but he could also throw seven innings and strike out 6-7.

No Thanks, But I’ll Pass

Taijuan Walker: $7,200 – @CLE

I’ve had reservations about Walker as a starting pitcher for two years and I’ve written about him extensively. The bottom line is I’m only using him in the best matchups.

Yovani Gallardo: $7,400 – @OAK

For the year the A’s have the sixth highest OPS against righties for the season. Since the game is in Oakland and Gallardo has the skill set of an average makes him a stream worth option in deep mixed leagues, but there’s too much downside.

Posted in Fantasy Baseball | Leave a comment

DraftKings/Streamer Pitcher Rankings for Monday, June 7

Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings for Monday, June 8. Specifically, pitchers playing in the night games, I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.

With a short slate of games there are two aces, a few ground ballers and a couple of high risk, high reward pitchers. In my lineups I’m going to go with Chris Sale and another lower tier pitcher because Cole Hamels isn’t very safe in a tough matchup against the Reds.

Must Stats

Chris Sale: $11,400 – HOU

After struggling to begin the year Sale, in his past five starts (38.2 innings) has 53 strikeouts, 1.40 ERA and a 0.647 WHIP. With a lot of power right handed bats some fantasy owners may be scared to use Sale, but the Astros have the third highest strikeout rate against lefties and are only 17th in the majors in wOBA against lefties.

A.J. Burnett: $9,500 – MIL

Burnett is clearly the third best pitcher. He has the eighth highest ground ball rate among qualified starting pitchers and his FIP (2.87) suggests he hasn’t been all that lucky. Some fantasy players may be reluctant to use him because he has struggled in his past two starts, but I’m not worried. During those two games the ground ball rate, strikeout rate and walk rate are similar to his first nine starts. The only difference is the last two starts he had a .405 BABIP. The BABIP should positively regress.

Cole Hamels: $10,400 – @CIN

Similar to Chris Sale, Hamels began the season slow but has been dominant in his past six starts. In 44.1 innings he has 46 strikeouts, 1.83 ERA and a 0.902 WHIP. Unlike Sale, the Reds can hit lefties. Example, they have the 13th lowest strikeout rate and have the sixth best wOBA against lefties. Hamels is probably much better than 90 percent of the lefties the Reds faced this year, which means those statistics may not apply to Hamels. However, at his price range I nurse doubt about his ability to return the ROI with his high salary.

Almost Starts

Mike Bolsinger: $7,000 – CHC

Bolsinger is almost the same type of pitcher as A.J. Burnett, but without the long track record of success. In the past month the Cubs are 24th in the majors in wOBA and having the strikeout rate against righties. Bolsinger doesn’t miss as many bats as Burnett, but he generates more ground balls. His ground ball rate is the seventh highest among starting pitchers. The reason why I have Bolsinger rated ahead of Kennedy is because of the higher strikeout and win potential.

High Risk, High Reward

Ian Kennedy: $7,700 – @ATL

Kennedy’s biggest problem this year has been the long ball. In nine starts he’s allowed 12 home runs (25 percent HR/FB rate). The strikeout rate, walk rate and BABIP are almost identical to last year. Most surprisingly the swing and miss rate is three percentage points higher than last year. Therefore, if the HR/FB rate positively regresses (and it should because the Braves ballpark is a pitcher friendly park) he’s good enough to be the last starter on a 12-team mixed league team.

Shelby Miller: $8,400 – SD

I’ve watched Miller’s starts and he doesn’t pass the smell test. He’s generating a lot of ground balls, which is great considering how good the Braves shortstop is defensively. However, he doesn’t have impeccable command and he doesn’t miss a lot of bats. His ERA has been aided greatly by a .215 BABIP and 85 percent strand rate. He currently has a 3.55 FIP and by the end of the year he’ll have an ERA around that. In the last month the Padres are 27th in the majors in wOBA against righties so it’s possible Miller will be able to have good start, but his price point is too high considering his skillset.

Lance McCullers: $7,400 – @CWS

McCullers, in his first three starts had a strike percentage of 59.6 percent, which would make the second worst among qualified starting pitchers. In his last start he threw strikes 68.2 percent and had 11 strikeouts. I have no what kind of pitcher we are going to get, but his price point suggests the command has to be better than his first three starts. If you’re able to watch his bullpen session before the game and you can tell his command will be good then I would definitely use him

Jimmy Nelson: $6,700 – PIT

Nelson was really good in his first three starts, but since then he has been very bad. In his last eight starts the strikeouts have been there (20.4 percent), but he’s given up a lot of hits and home runs, which has led to him having a 5.89 ERA and 1.458 WHIP. Also, the Pirates in the last month have the highest wOBA against righties. However, since it’s a short slate and Nelson has shown he can be dominant means he’s at worth a look.

No Thanks, But I’ll Pass

John Lackey: $7,100 – @COL

Lackey has pitched great this season and since he generates so many ground balls he has a puncher’s chance of doing well, but the Rockies have a .353 wOBA at home.

Posted in Fantasy Baseball | Leave a comment