Fantasy Baseall Starting Pitcher Rankings: Week 10

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

I was light with the pitcher analysis this week because I’m writing DFS pitcher rankings every day and I feel like I would just be repeating myself. My DFS rankings actually provide good write-ups about how well/poorly a pitcher is performing in general. Check out my Twitter account for links to my DFS rankings for the past few days.

I am big believer in Trevor May moving forward because it looks like the fastball command has taken a big step forward.

After watching Carlos Martinez dominate the Dodgers I’m 85 percent there in regards to him truly being a breakout candidate. However, if you’re a big believer in him you can’t feel good about starting him in Colorado.

I was a big believer in Carlos Rodon when he was facing the Rangers, but this week against the Astros I’m more pessimistic because their best hitters are right handed and Rodon still walks too many batters.

 


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DraftKings/Streamer Pitcher Rankings for Friday, June 4

Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings for Friday, June 5. Specifically, pitchers playing in the night games, I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.

Despite a large slate of games there is no dominant, must-start pitcher. Instead there are a lot of high variance pitchers. Therefore, if you’re able to choose a cheap pitcher(s) that breaks out you have a great chance to win.

Almost Starts

Jake Odorizzi: $8,600 – @SEA

Odorizzi has given up four earned runs twice this year. One start was at the Yankees and the other at the Orioles. If you remove those two games he’s only given up13 earned runs in 60 innings. Odorizzi is a much better pitcher when he’s pitching in pitcher friendly confines (most pitchers are, but he’s even better), which is why he is my number option. The Mariners are like the Astros in that they will either hit home runs or make an out. He’s been a little lucky with the HR/FB rate because he’s giving up the same amount of weak and hard contact. Even though he’s my number option I’m not very confident in the pick because of his relatively high salary. The major reason why I’m not confident is he doesn’t have overpowering stuff and if he doesn’t have his command the Mariners could rough him up.

Brett Anderson: $7,000 – STL

Among qualified starters Anderson has the fourth best soft-hit average for year. At a high level it makes sense that pitchers who generate more weak contact should be successful, but to honest I don’t know what to make of that statistic because Mike Pelfrey, Dallas Keuchel and Shane Greene have higher soft-hit averages. It’s also no surprise he has the second highest ground ball rate among qualified starting pitchers. The Cardinals are 17th in the majors in wOBA against lefties, but that should improve as the season continues because their best hitters are better against lefties and they have good players that can be platooned against lefties.

Tyson Ross: $9,400 – @CIN

I don’t know what to make of Ross. He leads the majors in ground ball rate, but also has the third highest walk rate among qualified starting pitchers. What’s strange is even though he has a 1.50 WHIP his FIP is 3.15, which means despite the walks he’s pitched very well. Ross will likely be the number one pitcher for a lot of fantasy players, but if I’m playing more than $9,500 want a sure thing (I know his cost $100 less but you know what I mean) and he’s not. The Reds have the fourth highest walk rate and seventh lowest strikeout rate. So, something has to give and I can see a scenario where he strikes out 9-plus in seven innings and I can see him having an in-game WHIP in the 1.50s.

Safe, Steady & Limited Upside

Tanner Roark: $5,700 – CHC

Given his price point, skill set, matchup and ballpark Roark is the best value on Friday. Some fantasy players may be hesitant to use him because the strikeout rate has been low in his two starts (9.3 percent), but in those two starts his swing and miss rate is 19.5 percent, which is exactly the same as 2014. Therefore, I expect the strikeout rate to increase and I would have said that even if he wasn’t facing the Cubs who lead the league in strikeout rate.

High Risk, High Reward

Nate Eovaldi: $6,300 – LAA

The Angels are 25th in the majors in wOBA against righties and their lineup is very right handed. Both of these factors bodes well for Eovaldi, who has struggled against lefties and has never had an issue getting righties. What’s troubling is he has the lowest strikeout rate of his career against righties. However, if you remove the first start of the year its more in-line with his career numbers, but they’re still a career low. The reason why I have optimism is because his swing and miss rate against righties is exactly at his career average.

Carlos Martinez: $9,100 – @LAD

Martinez has pitched great in his past four starts, but I’m not a total believer he’s turned a corner. The simple reason is he still walked a lot of batters during that stretch (8.8 percent walk rate). The strikeout rate was 28.4 percent and he was generating ground balls at a 60 percent clip, which is why he’s been so successful. The Dodgers have the highest wOBA against righties for the season and even from May they’re second in wOBA. If Martinez was priced around $7,500 I would be more inclined to use him, but I have doubts he’ll be able to continue his success against the Dodgers.

Aaron Sanchez: $6,100 – HOU

Sanchez is the ultimate high risk pitcher. He has a good matchup on paper and he has the raw stuff to exploit the matchup. I’ve always been wary of high walk pitchers and Sanchez is an extreme walk pitcher. Despite the high walks he’s only allowed more than three runs only once in ten starts. Obviously his strand rate has been extremely high (80 percent), but the reason why the strand rate has been high has been due to the 59.2 percent ground ball rate, the fifth best among qualified starters.

Kyle Lohse: $5,800 – @MIN

After his first 6-7 starts Lohse looked like a big regression candidate because his ERA was much higher than his FIP. However, the regression hasn’t come and his FIP has increased to the point where it’s likely he’s no longer a quality starting pitcher. However, I still there has been some bad luck. The line drive rate is up, but his hard-hit rate is similar to the past couple of seasons, which implies he’s been unlucky with the batted balls. The Twins have the fourth lowest wOBA against righties in the majors and the ballpark will suppress fly balls from turning into home runs, which makes Lohse an intriguing option.

Edison Volquez: $7,800 – TEX

Despite his numbers last year and this year Volquez does not pass the smell test for me. He has a below average strikeout rate and walks batters at a high clip. He’s been able to get away with that combination due to playing on a really good defensive team and he generates an above average strikeout rate. The Rangers best hitters are lefties and they have the 13th best wOBA against righties doesn’t mean this will be a cake walk for Volquez.

Tim Lincecum: $7,700 – @PHI

Lincecum’s ERA suggests he pitched really well, but the strikeout rate is the lowest of his career and the walk rate is tied for the highest of his career. So, he’s missing less bats and allowing more men on-base. That’s not a good recipe for sustained success. The reason why he’s priced so high is because of the ERA and how bad the Phillies are offensively. Lincecum may be able to have another good start, but at his price point I would look for a pitcher with more upside.

No Thanks, But I’ll Pass

Jose Quintana: $8,100 – DET

Quintana has pitched better than his ERA would indicate, but it’s difficult for me to use him against Detroit (especially at his price point). He’s faced the Tigers twice and in the first game he allowed nine earned runs in four innings. The second start was two earned runs five innings. Also, the Tigers are really good lefties; they have the seventh highest wOBA for the season. In terms of overall ability Quintana is the best pitcher pitching on Friday, but the matchup isn’t very good.

Scott Kazmir: $7,500 – @BOS

The biggest question I have about Kazmir is will be able to pitch deep into games? He left his last start (on 5.27.15) after three innings with shoulder tightness. Even prior to that he wasn’t pitching deep into games. He hasn’t thrown more than 6.0 innings since May. If I knew I could get 6-plus innings I wouldn’t put him in this section, but I rather take a wait and see approach.

Jered Weaver: $7,900 – @NYY

In his last five starts Weaver has a 1.98 ERA and 0.908 WHIP. However, I’m still avoiding him because he’s a fly ball leaning pitcher and he’s pitching in a bam box. I think he gives up at least one home run and has a higher percentage of a blow up start. He has pitched well but at his price point the ROI is not there.

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DraftKings/Streamer Pitcher Rankings for Monday, June 1

Below you’ll find my DraftKings and streamer rankings for Monday, June 1. I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the salary and where the game is being played.

Must Starts

Felix Hernandez: $11,600, NYY

Hernandez is the best pitcher on Monday, but I’m not entirely convinced he should be picked because of how many good pitchers are pitching. Hernandez obviously provides stability and safety, but his salary is nearly $2,000more than deGrom, my second ranked pitcher. The Yankees don’t strikeout out a lot against righties (19.5 percent) so there isn’t as much upside as you may think with this matchup.

Jacob deGrom: $9,700, @SD & Gerrit Cole: $9,900, @SF

The Padres are tied for the league lead in home runs allowed, which is strange considering of how much of a pitchers park they play in. I give Jacob deGrom the slight edge over Gerrit Cole because the Padres strikeout much more than the Giants do. Against righties the Padres are striking out 21.5 percent of the time compared 17.5 percent for the Giants. The downside with deGrom is you may only 2-3 strikeouts (he’s done this twice this year) while with Cole you can bank at least five strikeouts. Lastly, the Giants offense has been better against right handed pitching as the Giants have a .321 wOBA while the Padres are .291.

Almost Must Starts

Jason Hammel: $7,800, @MIA

Hammel may be the best value of the day. For the year he only has seven walks to go along with 58 strikeouts. He’s facing a Marlins offense that’s 27th in the majors in wOBA against righties and in a very pitcher friendly ballpark. In nine starts this year he’s had less than five strikeouts once, which means he should be a shoe-in for at least 20-25 points.

Michael Pineda: $8,800, @SEA

The reason why Pineda is not in the Must Start class is because of a limited track record and he’s allowed four and five earned runs in two of his past three starts. A part of the reason why he allowed so many runs was in-part due to a .339 BABIP in those three starts. Of the pitchers in this class I like Pineda almost as much as Jason Hammel because of the underlying peripherals (walk and strikeout rates), the ballpark and the mediocrity of the Mariners lineup. Hammel gets the edge because he’s pitching in the NL.

Garrett Richards: $9,500, TB

Richards has pitched very well this season, but he hasn’t been as good as last season. The strikeout rate is more than four percentage points less and the walk rate is more than two percentage points higher. Despite the lack of household names the Rays offense has been slightly below average in wOBA for the season (18th for the season). My hunch is those numbers are inflated by the poor pitching of the AL East because when I look at the Rays lineup I have to think Richards should be able to overpower the entire lineup except for Evan Longoria.

Andrew Cashner: $8,000, NYM

Since 2013 Cashner has made 55 starts and he’s only had 10 or more strikeouts only twice; 9 or more strikeouts three times. Therefore, the odds of him putting up a 40 point game are low. However, the Mets have the third lowest wOBA in the majors against righties. What’s also concerning is he’s allowed nine home runs already, which is two more than all of last season. Since he’s facing Jacob deGrom the odds of him earning a win are much less.

Safe, Steady & Limited Upside

Jordan Zimmerman: $8,600, TOR

Zimmerman has a 16.3 percent strikeout rate, which is the lowest it’s been since 2011. Also, the 5.6 percent walk rate is the highest it’s been since 2011. I haven’t watched all of his starts, but he hasn’t looked very good this year. The max fastball velocity is two mph down from two years ago and he’s allowed a lot of hard contact. The Blue Jays are likely to be without Jose Bautista because of the sore shoulder, which is another reason I put him in this class. If I knew the Blue Jays were going to start all of their best hitters I would put him in the No Thanks, But I’ll Pass class.

High Risk, High Reward

Alex Colome: $5,800, @LAA

Colome has pitched better than his ERA would indicate. He doesn’t walk batters, has good raw stuff to miss bats and generates a little better than average ground ball rate. The Angels offense without Mike Trout is very below average.

Mike Pelfrey: $4,600, @BOS

You may be scoffing at the idea of even mentioning Pelfrey, but he’s pitched well enough to at least get a mention. His strand rate and BABIP are both going to regress and he’s not striking out a lot of batters (only 11.9 percent). Maybe he’s not striking out a lot of batters, but he’s getting a lot of swings and misses? Of the 109 qualified starting pitchers he ranks 105 in swing and miss rate. So far he looks like a major regression candidate, but he has the 22nd lowest (or best) hard-hit rate among the same pitchers and has the seventh highest ground ball rate. One of the reasons why he’s performing so well has been due to the improvement of the split-changeup. A pitcher with this type of profile can be subject to a blow-up start, but at his price point if he even scores 20 points he would provide a profit.

Clay Buchholz: $7,000, MIN

In Buchholz’s last four starts he’s quietly posted a 2.48 ERA, 0.966 WHIP with a 19.8 percent strikeout rate and 5.4 percent walk rate. As any Red Sox fan will tell you, you have no idea what you’re going to get from start to start, but his upside is almost as high as anyone in baseball. At first I thought the price point was too high considering the opponent he’s facing, but the Twins offense has performed much better this past month as they have the eighth highest wOBA.

Ubaldo Jimenez: $6,400, @HOU

At this point any pitcher with swing and miss stuff facing the Astros is worth at least a look. I’m not excited about using him because he faced the Astros this past Wednesday and didn’t pitch very well.

No Thanks, But I’ll Pass

Clayton Kershaw: $10,700, @COL

In 16 career starts in Colorado Kershaw has a 4.78 ERA and a 1.333 WHIP. I’ve been saying for weeks there’s nothing wrong with him, but with so many good pitching options available the downside outweighs the limited upside.

Alex Wood: $8,200, @ARI

On a day with so many good pitchers I’m not rolling with Wood because he has a below average strikeout rate (16.4 percent) and above average walk rate (7.8 percent). Also, the Diamondbacks have the fifth highest wOBA against lefties in the majors and the game is being played in Arizona.

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