Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Below you’ll find my DraftKings and streamer rankings for May 31. I rank the pitchers in vacuum, but I try to write about the value of each pitcher by format type (i.e. Pitcher A would be better in a GPP than a 50/50). You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the salary and where the game is being played.

Madison Bumgarner: $10,300, ATL

Bumgarner is easily the best pitcher starting on Sunday and he’s appropriately priced considering the Braves have the second lowest wOBA against lefties for the season. If I’m playing at DraftKings tomorrow he’s going to be one of my pitchers.

Tanner Roark: $6,000, @CIN

If I knew for a fact Roark could throw 90-plus pitches I’d have ranked higher. Since his price point is so low I would take a chance on him in all formats. In his first start of the year he threw 66 pitches, which I have to assume gets bumped up to at least the mid-80s. He’s a ground ball pitcher, which negates the hitter friendliness of the ballpark. Roark and Danny Salazar are the two best options after Madison Bumgarner. Roark’s price is so low I would use him above Salazar in a GPP, but I’d use Salazar in a 50/50.

Danny Salazar: $8,500, @SEA

For some Salazar is the clear second best pitcher going on Sunday (excluding the two late games), but I nurse doubt. It’s hard to argue against him. He has 66 strikeouts in 49.1 innings and he’s finally starting to limit the walks. On top of that the Mariners have the fourth lowest OBP in the majors (.296). What has me a little worried he’s allowed six walks in his past two starts. In his first six starts he had six walks. Odds are he’ll likely limit the walks and have a very good outing (especially if he doesn’t allow walks) to a Mariners offense that is below average without Nelson Cruz.

Drew Hutchison: $7,500, @MIN

Hutchison is the biggest wild card of the day as he could strikeout 10-plus in seven scoreless innings or give up five earned runs in four innings. I wrote a week ago in the Week 8 pitcher rankings I said I loved Hutchison’s matchup against the Twins and I still feel that way. The Twins are a mediocre offense against righties (14^th in the majors in wOBA) and Hutchison is limiting walks and is still missing bats. Also, the Twins ballpark should suppress fly balls from leaving the ballpark. Hutchison is more of a GPP play than a 50/50 double up.

Jake Odorizzi: $7,400, @BAL

A lot of fantasy players are going to want to use Odorizzi, but on a day with so many good pitching matchups I’m staying away. The primary reasons why is the ballpark and how he’s a fairly fly ball heavy pitcher. To his credit he’s increased the ground ball rate (at the expense of the fly ball rate) this season, but at his price point I want more of a sure thing. If Tanner Roark was not pitching I would be much higher on Odorizzi.

Jason Hammel: $7,900, KC

The perception is the Royals offense has sputtered in the month of May, but the data doesn’t indicate that. In May they are 19^th in the majors in wOBA so they’ve been below average, but not too bad. Since the game is in Chicago the Royals will most likely be without Kendrys Morales, which makes Hammel’s matchup more attractive. Hammels has pitched great, but other than his first in Colorado his opponents have not been very good. His start against the Royals will likely be against the best hitting lineup he’s faced all year, which at his price point, makes this is a trap game.

Chase Anderson: $5,500, @MIL

Anderson has put up great numbers, but even at his price point I’m avoiding him. On paper this looks like a good matchup. The Brewers are struggling to score runs and the Brewers will likely use a low level Triple-A pitcher, which makes the opportunity for a win much higher. However, he doesn’t have overpowering stuff and relies on generating weak contact to be successful. Usually this profile doesn’t project well in a very hitter friendly ballpark.

Carlos Martinez: $7,300, LAD

My analysis on Martinez is dependent upon the lineup the Dodgers will use. If Yasmani Grandal and Andre Ethier are in the lineup (as well as the other lefty hitters) then I wouldn’t use him as my second pitcher considering how many good pitching options there are.

Jesse Chavez: $6,500, NYY

Chavez has put up great numbers since joining the rotation (2.80 ERA and 1.089 WHIP) and is pitching at home, but his numbers have been dependent upon not giving up any home runs (4.3 percent HR/FB rate). Obviously he pitches in a ballpark that limits home runs, but that HR/FB rate isn’t going to sustain itself as the season progresses. Also, the Yankees are tenth in the majors in wOBA against righties.

Bartolo Colon: $6,900, MIA

Whether or not you use Colon is dependent on whether you believe the first six starts of the year or the last four. I believe he’s somewhere in the middle, which is why I’m not high on him despite the really good matchup. At his price point he doesn’t offer enough upside, especially in strikeout potential, to warrant using him considering his downside is extremely high.

Brett Anderson: $6,400, @STL

For the year Anderson has reverse splits, which is the opposite of his career numbers. Similar to Carlos Martinez, I want to see the lineup before making a recommendation on whether to use him or not. The Cardinals have been mediocre against lefties (13^th in the majors in wOBA), but Randal Grichuk is making a lot of hard contact and the middle of the order mashes lefties. Anderson fits into the J.A. Happ class of pitcher in that Anderson has more value in traditional fantasy formats as a stream option.

J.A. Happ: $6,700, CLE

Happ has had a pseudo renaissance with the Mariners, posting a 2.05 ERA and 1.025 WHIP at home compared to 5.33 ERA and 1.407 WHIP on the road. However, I’m still weary of starting him. The Indians, against lefties, are tenth and fifth in the majors in wOBA and hard-hit average respectively. Happ is a fly ball pitcher and he’s pitching in a ballpark that suits his skillset means he has more value as a streaming option in traditional fantasy formats than DFS.

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

Stephen Strasburg left Friday’s game in the second inning and I currently do not know the extent of the injury, but as of now I’m not confident he will be able to make his next scheduled start. The same is also true of Scott Kazmir; at this point I do not know if he’ll be healthy for his next scheduled start. Even if both pitchers made their starts I have no idea if they’ll be able to finish the starts.

I was a huge believer in Collin McHugh entering the season and even though he hasn’t performed as well as last year I’m still buying him. The strike percentage and swing and miss rate are nearly identical as last year. Also, the ground ball rate is up and the walk rate is down. He may not have the upside of a strikeout per inning, but I still believe he finishes the year with a sub-3.20 ERA.

The Rays have the seventh highest wOBA against lefties, but I’m still recommending C.J. Wilson because of how well he performed against the Tigers, who at the time of his start lead the majors in wOBA against lefties.

Michael Wacha has been great this year, but his FIP suggests a regression is coming. However, I don’t see it starting against the Dodgers. What’s interesting about Wacha is he’s become a pitch-to-contact pitcher, ground ball pitcher and has decided to basically no longer strike anyone out. Pitchers like this are higher variance pitchers, but he’s facing Carlos Frias so he has a great chance to get a win.

Irregardless of all the injuries on the A’s pitching staff, Jesse Chavez has pitched well enough to earn a rotation spot the rest of the year. The Red Sox offense has been struggling the past month (23rd in wOBA), but eventually David Ortiz and Hanley Ramirez are going to start hitting. Since pitching is relatively thin this week you’re probably going to start Chavez either way, but I’m wary he may not have a good outing.

I’m not a believer in what Tim Lincecum is doing this year, but he’s facing the Phillies, who have scored the lowest total of runs this year (which is extremely low considering how much of a hitters park their home stadium is).

Last year Matt Shoemaker allowed 14 home runs all of last year. This year he’s allowed 13. All of his peripheral statistics indicate he’s the same exact pitcher as last year. For example, the strike out rate, walk rate, swing and miss rate are all the same. However, the big change is the ground ball rate. This year it’s 33 percent compared to 42 percent last year. The lower ground ball rate is coming at the expense of the fly ball rate, which is contributing to the increased number of home runs allowed this year. The biggest reason why he’s struggled this season has been the inconsistent command of the changeup. This year he’s been leaving it in the middle of the zone far too often. If the command of that pitch improves then he’ll allow less home runs.

Justin Bour was originally in the Cubs system, but the Marlins picked him up in the Rule 5 draft in 2013. He was never a heralded prospect; Baseball America ranked him as the 15^th best prospect at the start of 2015 season. His body makes it seem like his best position would be at DH, but his hands are good enough to stick at first base.

Today he smacked his third home run (in only 57 ABs) of the year against Gerrit Cole today (Wednesday May 27, 2015). Why does that matter? Bour ranks 17^th among hitters with at least 50 PAs in hard-hit average. He’s in the same company as Freddie Freeman, Ryan Braun, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper so fantasy owners have to take notice of what he’s doing. Most importantly, Bour has the power to hit home runs to all fields so there is a chance the hard-hit rate will continue.

Bour is hitting fourth and fifth in the lineup so a high percentage of his at-bats will be with runners on-base and with Michael Morse on the DL, Bour will still likely be platooned against lefties, which is a positive for his fantasy value. There are no other first base replacements on the team so the job is his for at least the next two weeks. If Bour continues to hit first base, against righties, is his the rest of the year.

If Bour keeps making this much hard contact he’s going to hit and for a lot of power. We’re still dealing with a relatively small sample size, but if you play in a deeper league or have a large bench (like NFBC) he is someone you should pick up now before it’s too late. For me he is in the Adam Lind class of first baseman.