I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.
I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.
My Strategy
To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.
With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.
Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.
Last Note
This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.
My 50/50 Lineup
- P: Michael Wacha (STL) — $8,300
- P: Johnny Cueto (CIN) — $9,900
- C: Brayan Pena (CIN) — $2,700
- 1B: James Loney (TB) — $3,600
- 2B: Danny Valencia (TOR) — $3,000
- 3B: Josh Donaldson (TOR) — $4,700
- SS: Hidden
- OF: Andrew McCutchen (PIT) —$4,800
- OF: Hidden
- OF: Hidden
There were certainly a lot of pitching matchups to choose from, but I went with Johnny Cueto and Michael Wacha because they were the safest matchups. Cueto is one of the 3-5 best starting pitchers in the majors and he’s playing in a great pitcher’s park. If I lose because one of the best pitchers doesn’t do well I can live with that. I’m still not buying the Royals offense; they’ve gotten lucky with the BABIP and the well-hit average is low. The Mets are struggling to score runs and Wacha has transformed himself into a ground baller with the increased usage of the cutter. The strikeouts may not be there, but I can see seven innings of 0-1 earned runs.
The biggest reason why I’m using Brayan Pena is he’s batting second and in front of Joey Votto (and I think by now the price point is implied). I almost went with Kyle Blanks, but I couldn’t avoid an opportunity to use James Loney against Mike Foltynewicz who cannot get lefties out. I went with the Josh Donaldson and Danny Valencia because they both mash lefties and I’m not totally buying Hector Santiago, especially in that ballpark. For the past month Andrew McCutchen’s well-hit average is on par with the previous two years. He’s back and his price point is “low” considering he’s facing Ricky Nolasco.
