Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.

I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.

My Strategy

To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.

With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.

Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.

Last Note

This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.

My 50/50 Lineup

• P: Stephen Strasburg (WSH)  — $9,200
  
• P: Jake Arrieta (CHC) — $8,600
  
• C:  Derek Norris (SD) — $3,400
  
• 1B:  Joey Votto (CIN) — $4,500
  
• 2B:  Alex Guerrero (LAD)  — $2,800
  
• 3B:  Luis Valbuena (HOU) — $3,900
  
• SS: Hidden
  
• OF: Gregory Polanco (PIT) — $4,300
• OF: Hidden
  
• OF: Hidden

I don’t know how someone can not use Strephen Strasburg and Jake Arrieta tonight. For some reason the Diamondbacks are not playing A.J. Pollock every day, but for DFS purposes that’s great news for Strasburg. Strasburg was dealing with a minor shoulder issue and only pitched three innings in his last outing so he is not without risk, but the Diamondbacks lineup is Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Trumbo and fringe Major Leaguers. Arrieta has been unlucky and he faces an average Mets offense.

Sean O’Sullivan of the Phillies isn’t very good, but lefties are the ones who do the majority of the damage against, which is why I went with Gregory Polanco. Derek Norris mashes lefties and bats second in the lineup; he’s the best play for me especially at that price point. Mike Foltynewicz will ultimately be a reliever because he’ cannot get lefties out consistently. Votto has a great chance to go deep or at least hit two doubles. Alex Guerrero makes too much hard contact to not use him today especially at the price point.

Lastly, I left $700 on the table. I wanted to go with higher priced options in my OF, but I’m trusting my evaluations. Also, this is the first time I’m leaving so much money on the table and I want to see how my lineup performs.

I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.

I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.

My Strategy

To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.

With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.

Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.

Last Note

This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.

My 50/50 Lineup

• P: Max Scherzer (WSH) vs. J. Collmenter () — $11,500
  
• P: Gerrit Cole (PIT) vs. J. Williams (PHI) — $8,900
  
• C: Rene Rivera (TB) vs. CC Sabathia (NYY) — $2,800
  
• 1B: Michael Cuddyer (NYM) vs. J. Lester (CHC) — $3,700
  
• 2B: Logan Forsythe (TB) vs. CC Sabathia (NYY) — $2,800
  
• 3B: Evan Longoria (TB) vs. CC Sabathia (NYY)— $4,200
  
• SS: Hidden
  
• OF: Andrew McCutchen (PIT) vs. J. Williams (PHI) — $5,300
• OF: Hidden
  
• OF: Hidden

A lot of people are picking Zack Greinke as their number one pitcher tonight, but I’m not entirely sold. Greinke is probably the best play tonight, but not at the price point. For me, Gerrit Cole is my number one option because he costs $1,300 less, is facing the worst team in the majors in wOBA (against righties) and is striking out batters at a higher clip. Choosing between Max Scherzer and Greinke is a tough decision, but the Diamondbacks are actually 11th in the majors in wOBA against righties and the game is being played in Arizona. I’m looking at the Diamondbacks lineup and David Peralta is batting fourth. Scherzer should be able to dominate this lineup.

With all the talk about Bartolo Colon not walking anyone, guess who also is not walking anyone? Scherzer. He only has five walks this year. The Red Sox are 24th in the majors in wOBA, which makes Scott Kazmir and interesting play. If you roll with Kazmir it depends on if you believe in the first five starts of the year where he was fabulous or if his blow up started against the Twins – his last start – regressed his total numbers to his true talent level. I’m not going with Kazmir because the A’s bullpen is so bad that even if he has a lead the bullpen is going to blow it for him.

I didn’t want my lineup to pseudo Rays stack, but I couldn’t help it. Steven Souza and Evan Longoria mash lefties and the fact Logan Forsythe is batting right after them in the four hole was too good to pass up especially at that price point. It was a tough decision between Kevin Plawecki and Rene Rivera because both make hard contact against lefties, but I went with Revera because he has a longer track record of success and is facing the lesser pitcher. Andrew McCutchen is among the leaders in well-hit contact the past 10-14 days and now he faces Jerome Williams in a great hitters park. Since 2008 Michael Cuddyer has a .295/.385/.544 slash line with a 19.0 percent HR/FB rate against lefties. Even if you look at the last two years of data he’s still mashing lefties.

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday night. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

If you’re a Corey Kluber owner do not lose faith. All of his rate stats are almost identical to last season. The swing and miss rate is three percentage points higher than last year. The ground ball rate is four percentage points higher than last year. Lastly, the walk rate is essentially the same as last year. The reason why his ERA is high is due to the .373 BABIP. As the season progresses the BABIP will positively regress and he’ll start to put up the number similar to last season.

Dillon Gee went on the DL, which has made room for Noah Syndergaard in the Mets rotation. My ranking of him may be overly optimistic, but he’s pitched great in Triple-A Reno, which is a hitters paradise. He’s striking batters out and he’s limiting the walks. Also, he’s a two start pitcher and he gets to face the Cubs who have the highest strikeout rate in the majors and the struggling Brewers. If Syndergaard struggles I wouldn’t be surprised if they send him back down to Triple-A and give the rotation spot back to Gee. The odds of that happening are slim and I expect Gee to be traded in the coming weeks.

Chase Anderson doesn’t have a high upside (his ceiling is a good number four starter), but I love the matchup against the Phillies. He’s walking less batters than last year – from 8.2 percent to 6.1 percent. The lower walk rate isn’t coming at the expense of the strikeout rate. In fact the strikeout rate has improved two percentage points. If he limits the walks the odds are extremely high he’ll provide a quality start

I’m not a big believer in Travis Wood, but I love the matchup with the Mets and how most likely Lucas Duda, the Mets best hitter, will be out of the lineup. Since the Cubs bullpen is below average I wouldn’t be surprised if they blow a lead for Wood, but the percentages are high he’ll provide a quality start.

Mike Leake has pitched great in his past two outings, but those starts have come on the road. His career road numbers are 3.49 ERA and 1.247 WHIP. His career home numbers 4.22 ERA and 1.302 WHIP. With two home starts and two great matchups in the Braves and Giants I still wouldn’t get overly excited

If you remove the disastrous first outing Mat Latos 3.38 ERA and a 1.350 WHIP. With a WHIP that high he’s been lucky to have an ERA that low, but he’s gotten better as the season has progressed.

Chris Tillman is going to continue to be ranked this low until he stops walking batters. If you haven’t seen his walk rate it’s almost 13 percent. I do not care how good a pitcher is but no one is going to perform well consistently with a walk rate that high

Depending on how Jarrod Parker pitched tonight in his first rehab start of the year it’s possible this is the last week Drew Pomeranz is in the starting rotation. I’ve said for two years he’s a reliever and not a starter and with the bullpen in shambles the A’s would be smart to put him in the bullpen.