Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.

I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.

My Strategy

To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.

With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.

Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.

Last Note

This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.

My 50/50 Double Up Lineup

• P: Collin McHugh (HOU) vs. J. Sheilds (SD) — $8,700
  
• P: Jimmy Nelson (MIL) vs. J. Marquis (CIN) — $6,900
  
• C: A. J. Pierzynski (ATL) vs. D. Fister (WSH) — $3,100
  
• 1B: Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) vs. T. Matzek (COL) — $5,700
  
• 2B: Dee Gordon (MIA) vs. D. Gee (NYM) — $4,400
  
• 3B: Miguel Cabrera (DET) vs. T. Milone (MIN) — $5,100
  
• SS: Hidden
  
• OF: Jayson Werth (WSH) vs. E. Stults (ATL) — $4,300
• OF: Hidden
  
• OF: Hidden

I was debating between Jimmy Nelson and Jason Hammel. I gave the edge to Nelson because of he’s facing a weaker lineup, is facing the weaker opponent in Jason Marquis (and yes, I’m not buying the current strikeout rate), the higher ground ball and strikeout rates. I have money left over from my lineup so money didn’t factor into my decision. A big reason for the spike in the strikeout rate has been the curveball; the swing and miss rate has been extremely high, which leads me to believe he can sustain the strikeout rate. As for Collin McHugh, I’m going to pretty much use him any time he costs less than $9,000 (except for a Colorado start).

I’m not a fan of A. J. Pierzynski as a person, but he’s batting cleanup today and his cost is too good to pass up. Dee Gordon cannot keep up his current pace, but if he gets on base he’s going to steal a base because Kevin Plawecki is not a good defender. Jayson Werth hasn’t been hitting lately, but since 2011 he has a .918 OPS against lefties and today he gets to the face the soft tossing Eric Stults.

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday afternoon. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

Drew Hutchison’s fastball command has been inconsistent this year. In his last start it was extremely sharp, but in the start prior to that it was extremely loose. I was high on him entering the year and when evaluating a pitcher who has been inconsistent I fall back on my initial assessment of him entering the year.

Shane Greene got lit up by the Indians Friday night and I’m not surprised. In my first write-up on Greene I had major questions about his ability to get lefties out (to be fair I was a little optimistic because of how the changeup looked). Greene continues to be a streaming option in mixed formats. This week he gets the Twins and he lit them up in his first start.

I may be overly optimistic about Trevor Bauer, but he has gotten better in each start and he’s striking out 34 percent of the batters he’s faced. The Blue Jays matchup isn’t very appealing but I have no idea if Jose Bautista will play or not. If he is playing I would drop Bauer down a few spots.

Brandon McCarthy has pitched great, but he’s been unlucky with the BABIP and the HR/FB rate. Like Bauer he’s striking nearly 35 percent of the batters he’s facing. When evaluating pitchers this early into the season I want to start the pitcher who is missing bats and limiting walks.

A couple of days ago I wrote about why I’m still buying Jason Hammel. If you watch his last start only two of the 5-6 hits he allowed were hard hit. He’s still missing bats and positive regression should occur.

C.J. Wilson will always be a high risk, high reward pitcher, but this week he faces a Giants team that cannot score runs and most importantly, the game is in San Francisco. He was dealing with elbow stiffness, but it looks like it’s a minor injury.

I watched Drew Smyly’s 2015 debut and I was very impressed with the raw stuff and his command. He had the look of a pitcher who was in mid-season form. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff so he’s going to need really good command to get hitters out. And for the first three innings he had great command of all of his pitches, but in the fourth he got a little loose and the Blue Jays pounced. Since he had a pitch count of 80 he wasn’t able to finish the fifth inning and get the win, but going into his next start the pitch count should increase.

I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.

I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.

My Strategy

To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.

With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.

Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.

Last Note

This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.

My 50/50 Double Up Lineup

• P: Jose Quintana (CHW) vs. D. Duffy (KC) — $7,000
  
• P: Carlos Martinez (STL) vs. M. Garza (MIL) — $7,200
  
• C: Buster Posey (SF) vs. E. Butler (COL) — $5,000
  
• 1B: Pedro Alvarez (PIT) vs. J. Collmenter (ARI) — $4,300
  
• 2B: Jason Kipnis (CLE) vs. S. Greene (DET) — $4,400
  
• 3B: Josh Donaldson (TOR) vs. D. Smyly (TB) — $4,200
  
• SS: Hidden
  
• OF: Charlie Blackmon (COL) vs. C. Heston (SF) — $4,800
• OF: Hidden
  
• OF: Hidden

I’m still waivering on Jose Quintana because I’m afraid he gets tossed out of the game after 1-2 innings. If there wasn’t a brawl last night I wouldn’t think twice about him. I don’t know why Carlos Martinez is priced so low. The Brewers’ lineup is depleted and is very right handed, which plays right into Martinez’s hands (because he struggles against lefties).

I don’t know why Josh Donaldson is priced so low. He’s a much better hitter against lefties and Drew Smyly against righties. I like Shane Greene, but tonight he’ll get roughed up a little bit by the Indians who have a lot of good left handed hitters. I waivered between Matt Adams and Pedro Alvarez, but I went with Alvarez because he’s hitting in a better ballpark and against worse pitcher.