Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Welcome to the position tiered rankings for 2015. The tiers are broken out into five tiers with five being the highest and one being the lowest. Five star players are players that will be taken in the first couple of rounds or will go for $30-plus. Four star players will have $20-plus. Three stars $10-plus, two stars $5-plus and the one star are players you want to avoid or players to stash on your bench.

The statistics for each player are my semi-final projections. The projections are going to change going forward, but if you follow me on Twitter @MattCommins I will tweet out when my projections are updated and posted on MattCommins.com. If I was a reader I would focus on the tiering of players and the overall idea of the projections. For example, if I project a player for 28 home runs that means I think he’ll hit for a lot of power.

Links the other position previews:

• Catcher
• First Base
• Second Base
• Third Base
• Shortstop
• Outfield
• Relief Pitcher/Closer
  
• Starting Pitcher

The value of the starting position depends dramatically on the size of your league. Before I say anything else every fantasy owner should ask themselves one question: am I confident I will be able to find breakout pitchers on the waiver wire? If you’re a casual player I recommend paying for higher end pitchers in your drafts. If you read and/or watch a lot of baseball then I recommend drafting 1-2 four star pitchers and wait to fill out your rotation.

Overall, pitching is extremely deep. Some pitchers have strong injury concerns coming into the season and for me, I’m avoiding them in my drafts because this position is so deep. The last thing I want to begin the season with injured players clogging my bench.

Lastly, pitchers with a “*” next to their names mean I added replacement level statistics to my original projection for each player. By replacement level I mean a player that should be available on the waiver wire throughout the year. The replacement level player I used was Jason Hammel. For example I only projected 160 innings for Johnny Cueto and I added 40 innings from Hammel.

Five Star

Five-Star Value Pick: Max Scherzer

Of all the pitchers in this list Max Scherzer could be the most likely (other than Clayton Kershaw) pitcher to win 20 games next year. I have Felix Hernandez ranked ahead of Scherzer now, but it’s very likely I’ll rank Scherzer higher because of how many more wins he’ll have.

Four Star

Four-Star Value Pick: Collin McHugh

Everything about Collin McHugh’s game is real and most importantly repeatable. The primary reason is all of his pitches are thrown from the same arm slot, which makes his pitches difficult to pick up out of the hand. Therefore, it’s no surprise he ranked 10^th among starting pitchers in swinging strikes percentage.

Three Star

Mike Minor struggled last year and the primary reason why he struggled was due to the injury he suffered in the offseason. The injury he suffered was minor, but it forced him to change his training regimen. Since he wasn’t able to train on his schedule he rushed his comeback and subsequently caused him to suffer another injury. This offseason he’s healthy and I expect a big rebound.

Two Star

Two-Star Value Pick: Derek Holland

Derek Holland lost most of last year to a fluke injury, which is causing a lot of fantasy owners to forget about how good he was and the big steps he took in 2013. In a brief stint in the 2014 the command improved even more, which provides optimism he could continue to take another step forward.

One Star

One-Star Value Pick: Trevor Bauer

I watched all of Trevor Bauer’s starts last year and my conclusion is this: he’s incredibly talented and inconsistent. When he’s on he can be one of the most dominant starters in baseball. When he doesn’t have command of his fastball he walks a lot of batters and is very hittable.

Welcome to the position tiered rankings for 2015. The tiers are broken out into five tiers with five being the highest and one being the lowest. Five star players are players that will be taken in the first couple of rounds or will go for $30-plus. Four star players will have $20-plus. Three stars $10-plus, two stars $5-plus and the one star are players you want to avoid or players to stash on your bench.

The statistics for each player are my semi-final projections. The projections are going to change going forward, but if you follow me on Twitter @MattCommins I will tweet out when my projections are updated and posted on MattCommins.com. If I was a reader I would focus on the tiering of players and the overall idea of the projections. For example, if I project a player for 28 home runs that means I think he’ll hit for a lot of power.

Links the other position previews:

• Catcher
• First Base
• Second Base
• Third Base
• Shortstop
• Outfield
• Relief Pitcher/Closer
  
• Starting Pitcher

I used to believe the adage of “never pay for saves.” I followed this strategy blindly for years, but in the last two years I’ve had better results (in roto and H2H) drafting closers early in drafts. The primary reasons why I love this strategy is because how many more strikeouts, the saves they provide, the benefits to my pitching staff’s ratios and the added roster flexibility.

If I’m in a 10-team mixed league I want at least one five star, one four star and one two star closer. If it’s a 12-team or 15-team mixed league I want one five start and one four star. Having top flight closers allows you to set it and forget it. By that mean I mean you will have 2-3 pitchers that will be locked in your lineup the entire season, which will allow you to use your bench for streaming pitchers and/or to have high upside hitters.

Five Star

Five-Star Value Pick: Dellin Betances

If I knew Dellin Betances was going to be the closer the entire year he would be my number one closer because he has the best combination of raw stuff and team quality.

Four Star

Four-Star Value Pick: Trevor Rosenthal

Trevor Rosenthal had great season in 2013, but in 2014 his command regressed immensely (specifically the fastball). Of all the pitchers in this tier he has the highest likelihood of finishing the year in the five star category. For that to happen the command has to improve. In 2013 the command was there, which gives me a lot of optimism.

Three Star

Three-Star Value Pick: Drew Storen

The Nationals should be the best team in the NL and I’m probably projecting too few saves for Drew Storen (because I’m not 100% certain sure he’ll keep the job if he struggles), but if he’s the closer the entire season he could have the most saves of any pitcher in 2015.

Two Star

Two-Star Value Pick: Brad Boxberger

Jake McGee had arthroscopic surgery on his elbow in December and the latest update is he may be ready sometime in April. Any time a pitcher is recovering from elbow surgery the timeline is always fluid and rarely goes as scheduled. Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if Brad Boxberger, the best reliever the Rays have, becomes the closer the entire year.

One Star

One-Star Value Pick: Brett Cecil

As of mid-February the Blue Jays do not have a “proven” closer on their roster. With all the acquisitions they made in the offseason says they’re going to try to win the division this year and I believe they have a really good chance of achieving that. Therefore, they are going to win a lot of games, which means whoever is the closer will have many save opportunities. Even though Cecil is left handed he doesn’t have a major platoon split and is the best reliever in the bullpen, which makes him the front runner for saves.

Welcome to the position tiered rankings for 2015. The tiers are broken out into five tiers with five being the highest and one being the lowest. Five star players are players that will be taken in the first couple of rounds or will go for $30-plus. Four star players will have $20-plus. Three stars $10-plus, two stars $5-plus and the one star are players you want to avoid or players to stash on your bench.

The statistics for each player are my semi-final projections. The projections are going to change going forward, but if you follow me on Twitter @MattCommins I will tweet out when my projections are updated and posted on MattCommins.com. If I was a reader I would focus on the tiering of players and the overall idea of the projections. For example, if I project a player for 28 home runs that means I think he’ll hit for a lot of power.

Links the other position previews:

• Catcher
• First Base
• Second Base
• Third Base
• Shortstop
• Outfield
• Relief Pitcher/Closer
  
• Starting Pitcher

The state of the outfield position depends a lot on how deep your league is. Since there are so many high upside two star players you can wait to draft an outfielder in the later rounds in a 10-team mixed league. For example, if I drafted two outfielders early in my draft I would fill out my other positions before filling out the other three outfielders. If I was in a 12-team mixed league I want to make sure I have at least three players from the first four tiers. Lastly, when I look at the players in the Two Star category except for three players (Ben Revere, Denard Span and Nick Markakis) I can envision scenarios where all of them finish the year in the Four Star category.

Five Star

Five-Star Value Pick: Carlos Gomez

As of now I have Andrew McCutchen rated higher than Carlos Gomez but as it gets closer to draft time I may rate Gomez higher because Gomez may be safer in stolen bases. Also, I would be shocked if McCutchen only stole 10-15 bases, but at the same time I wouldn’t be shocked if he hits 30-plus home runs too.

Four Star

Four-Star Value Pick: Starling Marte

I would have projected more runs and RBIs for Starling Marte, but I think he’s going to bat fifth (he should be batting second) and the lineup after him is going to be really bad. If he played most other teams he would bat third because his offensive talents are that good.

Three Star

Three-Star Value Pick: A.J. Pollock

What’s not to like about A.J. Pollock? He’s a five category producer who plays in very hitter friendly ballpark. If Paul Goldschmidt is fully healthy Pollock would score 90-plus runs.

Two Star

Two-Star Value Pick: Marcell Ozuna & Steven Souza

Marcell Ozuna’s power is legit and he has the speed to steal 10-plus bases if wanted to. Maybe this is the year he has a Todd Frazier season and starts stealing bases unexpectedly. Without looking at my projections what is the difference in upside between Kole Calhoun and Steven Souza? For me, there isn’t much of a difference, Calhoun is going to go far earlier before Souza.

One Star

One-Star Value Pick: Matt Joyce & Oswaldo Arcia           

As of mid-February I may be too low on Matt Joyce. If Josh Hamilton misses a lot of time Joyce could hit fifth behind Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. I don’t see a lot of upside in Joyce, but I definitely like his opportunity. Oswaldo Arcia, who will only turn 24 in May, has tremendous power and I wouldn’t be surprised if hit 30-plus home runs in 2015.