Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

When trying to evaluate James Shields I don’t know how to evaluate him. For his entire career he’s played in pitcher’s parks and behind really good defenses. Those two things are big pluses for him because he throws a lot of strikes and his strikeout rate has decreased year-over-year for the past two seasons.

Shields’ greatest fantasy asset is stability and I expect that to continue after signing with the Padres. The past two years he had ERAs well below his FIP and xFIP, which was aided greatly by how good the Royals’ defense was. Royals ballpark is a really good pitcher’s park, but he performed much better on the road than at home (table below).

Even though he’s going to a great ballpark I have big questions about the Padres defense. Much has been talked about the outfield defense and I’ll admit that it’s going to be bad. However, no one is talking about how bad the infield defense is. Alexi Amarista is maybe an average defender; Jedd Gyorko is below average; I love Derek Norris but at best he’s an average defender; Will Middlebrooks would be the only above average defender, but it looks like Yangervis Solarte will be the everyday third baseman and he’s below average too. Essentially he’s going to be pitching behind a defense full of below average defenders, which means any gains he got from moving to the NL and to Petco have been negated by the Padres defense.

The year over year strikeout rate decline the past two seasons is not a positive, but even at a low strikeout rate he was still able to have 180 strikeouts. Moving to the NL adds additional 10-20 strikeouts, which means he could still strikeout 200 hitters. The biggest question is how many wins will he have by the end of the year? After all the moves the Padres are going to be better, but I still see them as 80-85 win team, which means I don’t know if Shields will have more than 12-13 wins next year.

My 2015 projection for Shields is 210 IP, 195 Ks, 13 wins, 3.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

Welcome to the position tiered rankings for 2015. The tiers are broken out into five tiers with five being the highest and one being the lowest. Five star players are players that will be taken in the first couple of rounds or will go for $30-plus. Four star players will have $20-plus. Three stars $10-plus, two stars $5-plus and the one star are players you want to avoid or players to stash on your bench.

The statistics for each player are my semi-final projections. The projections are going to change going forward, but if you follow me on Twitter @MattCommins I will tweet out when my projections are updated and posted on MattCommins.com. If I was a reader I would focus on the tiering of players and the overall idea of the projections. For example, if I project a player for 28 home runs that means I think he’ll hit for a lot of power.

Links the other position previews:

• Catcher
• First Base
• Second Base
• Third Base
• Shortstop
• Outfield
• Relief Pitcher/Closer
  
• Starting Pitcher

What you will find below are the fantasy tiers for first basemen. Even though David Ortiz and Chris Carter not eligible I included them in the list. Every player in the five and four star categories are no lock entering the season. There are two ways to interrupt that fact. Either you believe you need to get one of the five star players or you take 2-3 of the four star category and hope one breaks out. I want one of the elite players to anchor my hitting and then I’m taking flyers on 1-2 of the three star players. If you play with corner infield slot you want to fill that position with a first baseman.

Five Star

Five-Star Value Pick: Paul Goldschmidt

I rated all of these players as five star but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them do not finish the season in this category because all them have warts on their resumes. For three years in a row Paul Goldschmidt has contributed in all five categories and is the youngest. The biggest question is how much affect does the broken finger have on his power, if at all.

Four Star

Four-Star Value Pick: Chris Davis

I love buying low on players who had high ADPs the previous year who have dramatically lower ADPs the following year. I never bought his 2013 numbers, but if you look at his season you’ll notice in the last four months of the season he had a .252 batting average with 34 home runs. It’s very possible I’m too aggressive with the batting average, but his power is real.

Three Star

Three-Star Value Pick: Billy Butler

I have feeling I’m going to own Billy Butler on a lot of my teams this year. His numbers were suppressed by a brutal April where .224/.285/.255 with zero home runs and only three extra base hits. After April he hit .282/.332/.406 with nine home runs and a 8.2% HR/FB rate. He’s going to play every day and hit in the middle of an order of good lineup.

Two Star

Two-Star Value Pick: Carlos Santana

At this point we know who Carlos Santana is. He has a great eye at the plate and he’ll hit a lot of home runs. The reason why he’s a two start player is because I do not believe the batting average fully regresses. He’s striking out more, putting less balls in-play and his final average was a result of really good months in June and July. In April, May, August and September he had a .193 batting average. All that said he by far has the most upside of anyone in this category.

One Star

One-Star Value Pick: Joe Mauer

In an era where batting average is hard to come by it’s hard not to like a player with a career .319 batting average. I was a huge believer in Joe Mauer last year, drafting him on all of my teams, but injuries derailed his season. If you already fulfilled your power early in the draft and you’re looking for batting average Mauer could be the perfect candidate.

Welcome to the position tiered rankings for 2015. The tiers are broken out into five tiers with five being the highest and one being the lowest. Five star players are players that will be taken in the first couple of rounds or will go for $30-plus. Four star players will have $20-plus. Three stars $10-plus, two stars $5-plus and the one star are players you want to avoid or players to stash on your bench.

The statistics for each player are my semi-final projections. The projections are going to change going forward, but if you follow me on Twitter @MattCommins I will tweet out when my projections are updated and posted on MattCommins.com. If I was a reader I would focus on the tiering of players and the overall idea of the projections. For example, if I project a player for 28 home runs that means I think he’ll hit for a lot of power.

Links the other position previews:

• Catcher
• First Base
• Second Base
• Third Base
• Shortstop
• Outfield
• Relief Pitcher/Closer
  
• Starting Pitcher

What you will find below are the fantasy tiers for catchers. The value of the catching position depends on whether you play with one or two catchers. If you play with one catcher I recommend waiting before drafting a player. I play in two catcher leagues and I always recommend trying to grab one of the four star or two of the three star catchers because after the three stars are gone it gets bad very quickly.

Four Star

Four-Star Value Pick: Evan Gattis

I love catcher eligible players who don’t have to play the position defensively. Before the trade to the Astros I was going to recommend staying away from Gattis, but since he got traded to the AL he’s going to spend the majority of time at DH. He’s going to swing and miss a lot, but when he makes contact he’s going to hit for a lot of power.

Three Star

Three-Star Value Pick: Yasmani Grandal

Yasmani Grandal’s career road statistics, in 385 plate appearances, is a 15.5% HR/FB rate and a .802 OPS. Moving to the Los Angeles’ ballpark doesn’t mean he’s going to be hitting in a hitters paradise, but moving out of Petco is an improvement. If he stays healthy and that’s a big if, I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 20 home runs.

Two Star

Two-Star Value Pick: Stephen Vogt

If you sit in the right field bleachers you will hear this chant from the A’s fans “I believe in Stephen Vogt.” Last year in a super utility role he hit nine home runs in 287 plate appearances. He has no competition for playing time. His closest competition is Josh Phegley and he wasn’t good enough to beat Tyler Flowers for playing time. Vogt is going to get the majority of at-bats and makes a lot of contact.

One Star

One-Star Value Pick: Jason Castro

The acquisition of Hank Conger muddles my recommendation of Jason Castro because they’re going to split the playing time, but Castro is only one year removed from a .276 batting average and 18 home runs.