Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

The biggest question I had about Chris Archer heading into 2014 was would he be able to finally negate lefties. The table below shows his career numbers against lefties.

By looking at the table it looks as though he’s found a way to mitigate lefties. The question how was he able to do that and is it repeatable? Archer is basically and two-pitch pitcher (fastball [four and two seam] and slider). In general, the slider is a divesting weapon against righties because the pitch is thrown down and away from the batter (i.e. away from the fat part of the hitters bat). However, against lefties that pitch is thrown right into the wheel house of a lefties bat. Last year I thought if the changeup improved he could breakout because the changeup is thrown down and away (i.e. away from a left handers bat). Last year he threw his two-seam fastball a lot more to lefties (image below from BrooksBaseball.net) and used that pitch to generate a lot of ground balls and weak contact. Last year his command improved in general. There would be a few starts where he would lose command and not pitch very well, but there were would be other times where he looked amazing. The biggest change from 2013 is he had more amazing starts and less bad starts. It’s not uncommon for young pitchers to be up and down with their command and do not forget 2014 was his first full year in the majors. From the scouting reports I’ve read he has the makeup, athleticism and most importantly, stuff to get even better in 2015. My 2015 projection for Archer is 195 IP, 3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 175 Ks and 12 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

What’s not to like about Max Scherzer? Since 2009 he’s made at least 30 starts every year. In past three seasons he’s averaged 241 strikeouts with a 3.24 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

One troubling trend is the lower strikeout rate last year compared to 2013. The reason for the lower strikeout rate was because he threw the slider less; instead opting to throw the curveball more. Some fantasy owners may be concerned about the decreased fastball velocity, but it’s important to note his velocity has varied wildly from year to year. Also, a decrease in velocity does not mean it will negatively affect his performance and statistics. Most of the reason why his velocity was “down” was due to the first month of the season. Once the season got going his velocity improved. The last thing I’ll say about his velocity is his max velocity 98.2 mph was on par to the max velocity he’s shown in the past.

Scherzer can be fly ball heavy, but in the last two years he’s been able to limit the HR/FB rate to 7.5-7.6%, which is substantially lower than in the years prior. This indicates he’s figured out a way to limit home runs.

In regards to him landing with the Nationals I couldn’t think of a better situation for him to land in. He leaves the AL, gets the face to the NL East, the worst division in baseball and to a slightly better ballpark. He’s in his prime and is one of the safest bets heading in 2015.

My 2015 projection for Scherzer is 210 IP, 2.95 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 237 Ks and 14 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.\

There’s a lot to like about Ervin Santana’s 2014 season. The strikeout rate was the highest it’s been since 2008. The fly ball rate was the same as the previous year. He was able to limit the number of home runs he allowed. He had the lowest FIP since 2008. The swinging strike rate was the highest of career.

There were some trends that were not positive. The walk rate increased nearly two percentage points, which makes sense considering the swinging strike rate was the highest of his career (i.e. he tried to get batters to chase pitches out of the zone). The batting average allowed was the highest it’s been since 2009 (and do not forget that including at-bats from pitchers). Against non-pitchers he had a slash line against of 269/.327/.411, which is far worse than his 2013 numbers.

In regards to his batting average spike, that was mostly fueled by left handed hitters. The table below compares his 2014 season against the 2008-13 seasons against lefties. The first thing you’ll notice is even though the batting average was really high he wasn’t allowing a lot of hard contact; instead he gave up singles that probably found holes.

There move from the Braves ballpark to the Twins’ shouldn’t have any negligible impact on his performance. Since he can be fly ball prone at times he does get hurt by the Twins outfield. Aaron Hicks is a really good defender, but Torii Hunter and Oswaldo Arcia are both below average defenders. In regards to the infield defense, he greatly benefited from playing with really good defenses the previous two seasons. The current starting Twins infield is all below average defenders so I expect some regression to occur.

For the past two seasons he has morphed from a fly ball heavy pitcher to more of a ground ball pitcher. In 2013 his walk rate was the lowest it’s been since 2008. This would indicate he threw more strikes, but that wasn’t the case. His strike zone percentage was the same in 2012 as 2013. That indicates his command and approach didn’t really change. I bring this up because in 2014 the walk rate rose to the levels of the previous four seasons before 2013. Therefore, I expect his walk rate to be in the 7.5-8.5% next year and the WHIP to be in the1.23-1.33 range.

My 2015 projection for Santana is 195 IP, 3.72 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 162 Ks and 12 wins.