Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.\

There’s a lot to like about Ervin Santana’s 2014 season. The strikeout rate was the highest it’s been since 2008. The fly ball rate was the same as the previous year. He was able to limit the number of home runs he allowed. He had the lowest FIP since 2008. The swinging strike rate was the highest of career.

There were some trends that were not positive. The walk rate increased nearly two percentage points, which makes sense considering the swinging strike rate was the highest of his career (i.e. he tried to get batters to chase pitches out of the zone). The batting average allowed was the highest it’s been since 2009 (and do not forget that including at-bats from pitchers). Against non-pitchers he had a slash line against of 269/.327/.411, which is far worse than his 2013 numbers.

In regards to his batting average spike, that was mostly fueled by left handed hitters. The table below compares his 2014 season against the 2008-13 seasons against lefties. The first thing you’ll notice is even though the batting average was really high he wasn’t allowing a lot of hard contact; instead he gave up singles that probably found holes.

There move from the Braves ballpark to the Twins’ shouldn’t have any negligible impact on his performance. Since he can be fly ball prone at times he does get hurt by the Twins outfield. Aaron Hicks is a really good defender, but Torii Hunter and Oswaldo Arcia are both below average defenders. In regards to the infield defense, he greatly benefited from playing with really good defenses the previous two seasons. The current starting Twins infield is all below average defenders so I expect some regression to occur.

For the past two seasons he has morphed from a fly ball heavy pitcher to more of a ground ball pitcher. In 2013 his walk rate was the lowest it’s been since 2008. This would indicate he threw more strikes, but that wasn’t the case. His strike zone percentage was the same in 2012 as 2013. That indicates his command and approach didn’t really change. I bring this up because in 2014 the walk rate rose to the levels of the previous four seasons before 2013. Therefore, I expect his walk rate to be in the 7.5-8.5% next year and the WHIP to be in the1.23-1.33 range.

My 2015 projection for Santana is 195 IP, 3.72 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 162 Ks and 12 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Shelby Miller may have an average ERA by the year ended but his season was saved by the month of the September. The table below breaks down his 2014 ERA and WHIP by month.

Overall, his 2014 season was the complete opposite of the year prior. He struck out far less batters and walked much more batters. The reason why he struggled so much last year was the cliché of bad command. I wrote about his command throughout the season last year (here and here). Despite the poor command this is someone worth taking a chance on in deeper formats because he has at one time had really good raw stuff.

In last year’s guide I thought he could sustain his 2013 success if the changeup took a step forward because I believe starting pitchers three quality pitches to be effective and I had a huge concern about his ability to get lefties out. However, last year he threw it less and opted to throw the cutter, which was a really good weapon against righties.

Last year his curveball was one of the worst in the majors. His whiff-per-swing rate with the pitch was the lowest among 74 qualifying righties. I’m not convinced the cutter is a good enough third pitch. Without a third pitch the curveball becomes less effective and if the curveball isn’t effective then the fastball will not be as effective. I think 2015 is going to be a developmental year. If he comes at a discount in a deeper format I’ll take a chance on him because I still believe in the mystique of the Braves, but I’m not going to target him in drafts.

My 2015 projection for Miller is 190 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 140 Ks and 10 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Last year Collin McHugh literally came out of nowhere and one was of the best starting pitchers in baseball. For example he was and/or had the (all stats are for pitchers with at least 25 starts last year):

• 6^th lowest WHIP
• 16^th lowest ERA
• 9^th best strikeout rate
• 8^th best swing and mix percentage on pitches in the strike zone

Generally speaking what happened last year was he got better. Sometimes players can inexplicably “get it” without any warning or indication. The greatest personification of this was Cliff Lee. He was literally below average for the first six seasons in the majors before the light turned on and became an ace. I’m not indicating McHugh is going to be an ace, but what I am saying is it’s possible for players to get dramatically better.

What I love about McHugh is he can throw 3-4 pitches for strikes consistently against both sides of the plate. On top of that he throws those pitches at the same arm slot, which allows each pitch to play-up, which delays the hitters ability to know what pitch is coming; hence the 8^th best swing and miss percentage on pitches in the strike zone. To put that number into perspective some of the the guys ahead of him are: Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels and Max Scherzer. Lastly, his fastball velocity ticked up almost two mph since 2012. Doug Thorburn wrote an amazing piece about why he also believes in McHugh as well.

It’s easy to look at the low BABIP and high strand rate and say he’s going to regress, but I do not believe that is going to happen. McHugh has the best shot to be this year’s Corey Kluber. The Astros are not going to be a bad team next year. They signed two very good relievers and they offense is going to have a lot of right handed power. If things break right McHugh could find himself with 15-plus wins next year.

My 2015 projection for McHugh is 190 IP, 3.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 190 Ks and 14 wins.