Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Last year I wasn’t a Zack Wheeler believer because of his inconsistent command from batter to batter in his brief showcase in 2013. Specifically, I thought he walked way too many batters and the fact he would have too many long at-bats against batters (i.e. 7-8-9 hitters) he should be able to get out in 1-3 pitches.

At the start of 2014 he changed his delivery for the better. He reduced some of the movement in his delivery, which helped him make his delivery more repeatable. This alteration helped, but he still struggled with the walks. Last year he was 4^th in the majors in walks allowed.

When I saw him pitch I only saw a thrower and not a pitcher. From start to start I saw him make the same mistakes over and over again, which isn’t atypical for a young pitcher. An example of this was he would always struggle throwing the fastball on the outer half of the plate to righties. Another example is in two strike counts he would throw the slider down in the dirt to try to get batters to swing and miss, which batters wouldn’t do. The reason is hitters know it’s going to be a ball when the ball leaves the hand.

The positive takeaway is all of these things are correctable. The question is can he make the necessary adjustments. He has stuff for days; the fastball sits in the mid-90s and can reach 98-99 mph; the curveball and slider that can miss bats on both sides of the plate.

Some fantasy owners may be swayed by his second half numbers, but upon closer inspection it looks like he got lucky with the ERA because the walk rate and strike percentage were essentially the same as the first half.

Wheeler has the upside to be a top 20 fantasy pitcher if everything clicks, but from what I saw last year I don’t see that happening. I am very curious to see what he his ADP is next year. My guess is he’ll likely be drafted in the 40-50 range in mixed leagues, which is too high for me because the likelihood of him putting it all together is less than 25%. If he slips to the 60s I’ll gladly roll the dice.

My 2015 projection for Wheeler is 200 IP, 195 Ks, 3.55 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 12 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Right after the 2014 season ended A.J. Burnett had hernia surgery and is expected to be ready for Spring Training. It’s a little reductive to say his numbers should bounce back to the numbers he posted in 2013 even though he had subpar numbers in 2014. A lot has been made how the use of the defensive shift helped Burnett achieve really good numbers in 2013. In 2013 he allowed a .233 batting average when the ball was hit on the ground; last year .223 batting average on ground balls. Instead his poor 2014 season was due to a combination of bad luck and decline in skill set.

When I look at his 2014 statistics it looks like he reverted to the pitcher he was back in 2011when he couldn’t throw his fastball for strikes consistently. After three miserable seasons with the Yankees, Burnett bounced back nicely in two seasons with the Pirates before having a down year with the Phillies. Based on that fact it appears Burnett pitches much better in smaller markets (also could be a small sample bias) so it’s possible he could have a nice bounce back season. The question will he be the 2012 version or the 2013 version?

Not to sound cliché but the reason for the strikeout rate spike in 2013 was due to command. In 2013 he threw his curveball for more strikes so hitters couldn’t sit on any pitch. That’s why his fastball strikeout rate ticked up almost four percentage points. His track record for having command that good only happened in 2013 (my data only goes back to 2008) so the smart money says the 2012 version is more likely to happen in 2015. Some fantasy owners may be concerned by the decreased fastball velocity (image below from BrooksBaseball.net), but I’m not. Even though the average velocity is down, his max velocity only ticked down 0.4 mph last year.

The odds of him returning to 2013 form are not high, but they’re still possible. He pitches in a great pitchers bark, behind a good defense and bullpen and has a greater opportunity to win 14-plus games. On top of all that he could provide 200-plus strikeouts. Most pitchers at his ADP will not have that upside.

My 2015 projection for Burnett is 190 IP, 3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 175 Ks and 13 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Other than the month of July Jason Hammel pitched exceptionally well last year (table below).

The reason why he struggled in July was due to the cliché of bad command. Also in July with the A’s he didn’t look confident and had a woe is me demeanor on the mound (and yes, I’m very aware I provided analysis that cannot be measured statistically … also he was away from his pregnant wife, which must have had an effect). Back to the command, he was leaving curveballs up in the zone and the fastball was left up and in to a lot of righties. Starting in August he regained his command and pitched better than he did with the Cubs. Despite the low walk totals his command is always going to be a little loose from pitch to pitch, which causes him to have extended at-bats and results in his low inning totals per start.

Injuries are going to be a greater concern for Hammels than other pitchers (he’s never pitched more than 185 innings), but when he’s at his best he throws a lot of strikes and misses enough bats to be a steam worth option for 12-team mixed leagues.

My 2015 projection for Hammel is 160 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 140 Ks and 8 wins.