Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

No other pitcher had more conflicted forecasts, projections and evaluations than Alex Wood. On one hand I do not like how he throws a baseball. When I see him pitch it looks like his arm is going to blow off into the stands. I have no idea how he can throw strikes consistently because I don’t know how he’s able to consistently to throw strikes.

On the other hand he’s been extremely successful for the past two seasons. The table below shows his Major League statistics as a starting pitcher. Last year he was a top 30 starting pitcher in mixed leagues and threw 180 innings between the minors and majors last year.

The major improvement last year was the curveball got a lot better and he was able to throw it for more strikes while missing a lot of bats. The table below shows the strikeout rate and the percentage of strikes with the curveball.

The reason why I mentioned the curveball was because coming up through the minors he was a two-pitch pitcher (fastball and changeup). The lack of a third pitch and funky mechanics suppressed his name on prospect lists coming through the minors because his profile suggested he was going to be a reliever. Since the curveball has emerged as a legitimate third pitch he now has a good chance of having another solid season as a starting pitcher.

In regards to last year’s statistics there’s no way he’s going to have an 80% strand rate again so there is going some negative regression. However, when evaluating any left handed starter I always look at the lefty-righty splits because a lot of times lefties struggle to get righties out.

His numbers suggest he should be able to get righties out so the last major concern I have is how many wins will he have if he has 30 starts? Other than Craig Kimbrel I have major questions about their bullpen. Currently their seventh and eighth inning relievers are Jim Johnson and Jason Grilli. Maybe both these pitchers regress, but I do not want these pitchers pitching high leverage situations. Also, I believe the Braves offense is going to be bad; in fact they’re going to score least number of runs in the NL. Therefore, it’s going to be hard for any Braves starting pitcher to have more than 11-12 wins next year.

My 2015 projection for Wood is 190 IP, 3.40, 1.15 WHIP, 179 Ks and 11 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Where to begin? From 2010-13 he’s made at least 31 starts, but last year he was only able to start 16 games. The reason why he only made 16 starts was due to a knee surgery (after slipping on the mound) and elbow inflammation. The elbow inflammation started in April and came up again in September.

Last year his fastball velocity dropped from 94.07 mph to 91.82 in 2014. I have to believe injuries played a major part in the velocity decrease because his velocity was stable for the three years prior and he never had a decrease that big before (image below courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net). Also, his secondary stuff didn’t look the same either; especially the slider.

It can be easy to say he’ll begin the year healthy and rebound. It’s also easy to say he will continue to not be healthy because elbow injuries are more serious. I think we will have to wait to see how he looks in Spring Training to get a better idea on how he’ll perform in 2015.

To quote Keith Law, “Latos has five full years in the majors and has never had an ERA over 3.50 or a FIP over 3.85, and that includes three seasons in a hitter’s park in Cincinnati.” In regards to the “low” strikeout rate in 2012-13 I see that as a positive because he started throwing his two-seamer more to get ground balls, which makes sense considering the Reds ballpark.

Overall, his fantasy value is going to be tied to his health. If he throws 150-plus innings his fantasy owners will make a fairly large profit. As of early January I have no idea if he will be healthy or not, which is why I will conclude with this:

The Reds traded Latos for Anthony DeSclafani and Chad Wallach (catcher). DeSclafani’s ultimate role will be a long reliever because I don’t think he has the arsenal to go through a lineup more than once. In my view the Reds traded Latos away for a bag of magic beans essentially. The Reds knew more about Latos’ medical status better than anyone. If they believed he had a good chance of rebounding in 2015 then why trade him for little? I’m sure they could have gotten more in trade in June/July than now. The retort to that is to look at the Jeff Samardzija trade. The A’s didn’t get that much back in return (at least in the public’s perception) so maybe that was the best offer on the table for the Reds. But if that was the case then why not keep him for a half a year and trade him when his value is higher?

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

When I look at Lance Lynn’s 2014 final numbers he doesn’t pass the smell test for me. Last years .293 BABIP was 26 less than his career BABIP prior to 2014. Last years 78.1% LOB% was four and half percentage points higher than his career rate. Last years 6.0% HR/FB rate was two percentage points less than his career rate. Basically, he lot lucky and his numbers are going to regress in 2015 especially because he’s a high walk pitcher.

The big adjustment he made last year was he threw his fastball a lot more against both righties and lefties. By throwing the fastball more he morphed into a bat-to-ball pitcher. Therefore, I’m not surprised his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career and I expect the strikeout rate to be in the 19-20% range next year. Even though the strikeout rate was lower, it was still passable for a 10-team mixed league. What probably will not be talked about is in the past three years he’s had at least 15 wins each season. The Cardinals should be good in 2015 so it’s very likely he’ll have at least 14 wins if he makes 30-plus starts next year.

For 2015 my projection for Lynn is 200 IP, 3.78 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 180 Ks and 14 wins.